A few thoughts on Prigozhin's armed insurrection/mutiny/rebellion. For now it appears over. Wagner seems to be standing down, and leaving Rostov for LNR. Prigozhin launched a mutiny that ultimately challenged Putin’s power, and the system. Thread. 1/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
I had long wondered whether Prigozhin understood something intuitively about the system, if the regime was fundamentally hollow, prominent members like Shoigu were weak, and Putin could be pressed into deals, etc. or if he was grossly miscalculating. 3/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
Most of the Russian military is deployed in Ukraine. And while to outsiders Wagner is seen as a separate force, it wasn’t treated as such in Rostov. You can chalk this either up to sympathy or stereotypical lack of initiative by local forces. 5/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
I was skeptical on Wagner's odds because most coups fail, and Russia does not have a strong history of successful military coups to begin with. Though Wagner’s thunder run to Moscow was looking much better than Russian attempts to pull this off against Kyiv in 2022. 7/ pic.twitter.com/ivIlTFOnmu
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
Regarding the bloodless nature of this mutiny. Wagner shot down six helicopters and an Il-18 (Il-22) command and control aircraft. Supposedly 13 pilots were killed in that one day’s action. How many Wagner soldiers died in strikes is unclear. 9/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
Prigozhin had declared that Wagner would not sign contracts with the Russian military, designed to neuter their autonomy. Theatrics ensued, but this standoff was clearly going to end poorly. The trajectory was a downward spiral from his May ultimatums leading into a crisis. 11/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
It’s unclear if Prigozhin was counting on more support. He certainly didn’t get it from pro-war factions. Security services and the military didn’t side with him either. Apathy is not enough. His timing was poor given the situation at the front. 13/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
After Bakhmut, the military was far less dependent on Wagner. Folks often conflated Bakhmut for the entire Russian winter offensive, and Wagner’s role as though it was omnipresent on the front. It was quite narrow, and Wagner was not used for defense in the south. 15/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
Wagner might be disbanded in its entirety, or absorbed. The Russian state had been trying to set up competing organizations and this process is likely to accelerate now. This in part depends on what happens to Wagner’s backers in Moscow - what was Prigozhin's cover there. 17/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
My conclusion is that Prigozhin ultimately lost. Wagner will also lose out. But Putin lost as well, and the regime was wounded. What the long term repercussions are remains to be seen. 19/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
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