I wonder how the whole Prigozhin issue will play out. On one hand, he has been getting more daring with each passing week since the ultimatum was set for private military companies to become underlings of the Russian defense ministery. But on the other hand, a lot of things he has said in the past didn't amount to more than rants filled with hyperbole in the aftermath, with no consequences being realized from his side, so he might just give in and sign the contract next week.

If he doesn't sign though, what options are there? If he can't keep his mouth shut, Russia might just arrest or assassinate him. Or he goes on the offensive with his PMC and cleans Russia from Shoigu, so a scenario where potentially a civil war arises. One that Wagner could have good chances in, because what Russian army is there left to defend the country? Highly doubtful that Prigozhin will go to Moscow though.

I can't forget about the other side. If Prigozhin doesn't sign, there may as well be nothing that happens, because Russia's officials themselves have kept lying and threatening throughout this war, with lots of threats turning out to be nothing but hot air. So the most likely thing to happen once the deadline has passed is absolutely no change other than Russia trying to frame Prigozhin as a mad man who has lost his senses in order to discredit him completely and keep the state-ordered propaganda going as usual.

EDIT: Just when I type all this, Ryuu submitted like six new posts, most of them on this very topic. LOL

Girkin isn't realiable though*

New from Prigozhin, claiming "Shoygu ran from Rostov":

"Shoygu just cowardly ran from Rostov. At 21:00, he RAN, cowardly, like a woman to avoid explaining why he raised helicopters to destroy our lads, why we dealt the missile strikes. This scum will be stopped."

Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defence issued a message refuting Prigozhin's claims about the missile strike.

LOL. Idk what the fuck is going on but I'm loving it.

Genuinely, I don't know what the plan is here, everything you said is true, Prigozhin has been trashing Russian MoD for months now and never acted on it but accusing them of actually bombing Wagnerites is a huge accusation and the July 1st deadline looms near.

I love the drama, I think his video is staged but is he really going to go through with not signing the contract? Will Russia punish him if he doesn't? Idfk...But none of this hurts Ukraine and only hurts Russia so keep at it! Love the drama.

Prigozhin, 19:52 BST audio message, saying "there's 25,000 of us, join us":

"There are 25 thousand of us and we are going to figure out why this chaos is happening in the country. 25 thousand is a tactical reserve, but the strategic reserve is our whole army and the whole country. Everyone who wants, join us. We must end this disgrace".

Russian terrorist Guzenko, aka 13th:

"So, my Dear, do not panic, it had to happen sooner or later, but now it is happening. In the near future, I will let you know what's going on, the main thing now is to know that we will win."

If this terrorist is not lying, then he definitely seems like someone that could be involved in a "coup".

I'll reiterate that the video from the forest looks fake af but the whole thing with the "coup" may have more chances of being real. It could be a set up by Prigozhin or whoever stands behind him. We have to see how others will act.

Prigozhin, audio message at 20:15 BST:

"Details start emerging. The Minister of Defence urgently arrived to Rostov in order to conduct an operation to destroy PMC Wagner. He used artillerymen and helicopter pilots covertly to destroy us”.

Some information is super unconfirmed, take it as it is:

- "A military collegium is convened on the Frunzenskaya [Russian MoD office]: a general meeting has been announced for the central bodies of military control."

- "There are reports that units of the National Guard are being armed".