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Forums - Politics - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

Farsala said:
shavenferret said:

The orcs lost about 900 troops daily at this time last year but lately the average is about 1200 a day. This is bc of several reasons, lack of tanks and armor on russia's side, Ukrainian artillery, and drones. The new land drone are great as well because they are harder to spot than a tall human walking. Russia will have to make a decision to either become eradicated, pull out, or mobilize troops in a draft which they are reluctant to do.

Zelensky wants to have 50,000 casualties a month and this would mean that they would have to kill or severely injure 1666 orcs a day. I think that we can edge this number up but when it gets that high Putin will have to sue for peace

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/2dWfpgZixi

Russia actually still has a ton more armor. But they make more progress without those big targets. Russia took Pokrovsk and some smaller cities on the frontline by funneling troops in at night and when enough survived, they could make large advances. Problem for Russia now is the frontline has less cities and more plains, much easier for the drones to target small crawling troops. This is why Zelensky aims for an increase of casualties, because it will be very likely if Russia continues with the same tactics.

A lot of tanks left you say? Covert Cabal has just made a video about it:

https://youtu.be/wCeAW_KWcWQ?si=qVhTrlP5j3BORVt0

Basically all that's left in any numbers are T-62 and T-72A (aka Ural. As in the OG version that came out 50 years ago and pretty much stayed that way), with what's left of the other tanks has dwindled down a lot and it gets harder and harder to replace them. The T-90 are all used up, the T-80 almost, too, and the T72B variants are also almost totally drained.

Just to illustrate, here are the numbers of tanks Russia had in storage before the war and as per the latest count:

Keep in mind that some of the pictures from the bases where they count the tanks are as old as last summer, so in reality, the actual number is somewhat lower even then what is presented here.

There's one other tank that they have in reserve, the T-64... but as long as the manufacturer is in Ukrainian hands with all the know-how how to do proper maintenance on those tanks, let alone upgrade them, they won't be used much.

Also, for offensive actions they still need to use armour, without them they would be way too vulnerable. They just don't mass them together like they did before I hence less losses per day 

Edit: some clarifications and screenshots

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 01 February 2026

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Zkuq said:

Never mind me, I'm just posting this to get this back in my VGC Buddy after not posting here in a while.

To say something on the topic as well, I guess I could say that the current situation is kind of interesting but also kind of boring. The situation on the battlefield seems fairly stable, but there's something going on with the peace negotiations. It looks like typical theatre to me in that everyone's playing but it's not likely to yield any actual results because Russia doesn't seem like it could care less about ending the war in any way that doesn't end in Ukraine practically losing its sovereignty, but who knows.

Well it is an interesting year because

-We have heard for years that Russia is getting to its limits but this year everything is crumbling, from not having enough war material to not having the capicity to produce enough, financially it is getting harder especially to motivate new recruits.

-The peace deal, Putin is hitting Ukraine hard this winter but if the Ukranians can keep it steady then Spring can motivate them while Russians losing Morale especially with the shorter nights.






DeepState Data Shows Sharp Drop in Russian Territorial Gains in January
Russian forces captured 245 sq km of Ukrainian land in January – about half the area seized in December or November, according to DeepState.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69248

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The war effort is stalling, and soon will be falling apart



Rusty Dagger Low-Cost Cruise Missile Hits Its Target
Rusty Daggers are headed for Ukraine, but the effort to field low-cost cruise missiles could have big implications for the U.S. military.

https://www.twz.com/air/watch-rusty-dagger-standoff-missile-now-headed-to-ukraine-hit-its-target

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Ukraine is about to become the recipient of thousands of low-cost cruise missles that will wreck hell on Russia. The Pentagon has figured out that it can give away cheap tech to other nations to aid their military efforts, instead of giving away the good stuff like Tomahawks. Lately, the United States has been helping Ukraine more and more due to pressure from Europe. Ukraine's military just keeps getting better and more capable.



Russian battlefield losses surge due to Ukrainian drones
https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/bloomberg-ukrainian-drones-drive-spike-in-russian-military-deaths-50579831.html



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shavenferret said:

DeepState Data Shows Sharp Drop in Russian Territorial Gains in January
Russian forces captured 245 sq km of Ukrainian land in January – about half the area seized in December or November, according to DeepState.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69248

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The war effort is stalling, and soon will be falling apart

I wouldn't give too much on the conquered land if I were you.

The terrain is highly susceptible to weather, so when it rains a lot it tens to get all swampy, making offensive actions very difficult and the icy weather tends to freeze the mud in the tracks and on the undercarriages of vehicles, making any offensive actions with them nigh impossible. The Germans learned these the hard way 80+ years ago, and this was also what ultimately stopped Ukraine's counteroffensive in late 2022; not the Russians directly, but the muddy weather making any offensive actions impossible.

Having said all this, these are of course good news, and I think it's getting more and more difficult for Russia to keep the war effort up like this.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
shavenferret said:

DeepState Data Shows Sharp Drop in Russian Territorial Gains in January
Russian forces captured 245 sq km of Ukrainian land in January – about half the area seized in December or November, according to DeepState.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69248

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The war effort is stalling, and soon will be falling apart

I wouldn't give too much on the conquered land if I were you.

The terrain is highly susceptible to weather, so when it rains a lot it tens to get all swampy, making offensive actions very difficult and the icy weather tends to freeze the mud in the tracks and on the undercarriages of vehicles, making any offensive actions with them nigh impossible. The Germans learned these the hard way 80+ years ago, and this was also what ultimately stopped Ukraine's counteroffensive in late 2022; not the Russians directly, but the muddy weather making any offensive actions impossible.

Having said all this, these are of course good news, and I think it's getting more and more difficult for Russia to keep the war effort up like this.

Definitely agree, perhaps the increase in kills is a more insightful metric than the land thing.  



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Farsala said:

Russia actually still has a ton more armor. But they make more progress without those big targets. Russia took Pokrovsk and some smaller cities on the frontline by funneling troops in at night and when enough survived, they could make large advances. Problem for Russia now is the frontline has less cities and more plains, much easier for the drones to target small crawling troops. This is why Zelensky aims for an increase of casualties, because it will be very likely if Russia continues with the same tactics.

A lot of tanks left you say? Covert Cabal has just made a video about it:

https://youtu.be/wCeAW_KWcWQ?si=qVhTrlP5j3BORVt0

Basically all that's left in any numbers are T-62 and T-72A (aka Ural. As in the OG version that came out 50 years ago and pretty much stayed that way), with what's left of the other tanks has dwindled down a lot and it gets harder and harder to replace them. The T-90 are all used up, the T-80 almost, too, and the T72B variants are also almost totally drained.

Just to illustrate, here are the numbers of tanks Russia had in storage before the war and as per the latest count:

Keep in mind that some of the pictures from the bases where they count the tanks are as old as last summer, so in reality, the actual number is somewhat lower even then what is presented here.

There's one other tank that they have in reserve, the T-64... but as long as the manufacturer is in Ukrainian hands with all the know-how how to do proper maintenance on those tanks, let alone upgrade them, they won't be used much.

Also, for offensive actions they still need to use armour, without them they would be way too vulnerable. They just don't mass them together like they did before I hence less losses per day 

Edit: some clarifications and screenshots

I had no prides Russia’s arsenal was so close to the bottom relative to where it started.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Farsala said:

Russia actually still has a ton more armor. But they make more progress without those big targets. Russia took Pokrovsk and some smaller cities on the frontline by funneling troops in at night and when enough survived, they could make large advances. Problem for Russia now is the frontline has less cities and more plains, much easier for the drones to target small crawling troops. This is why Zelensky aims for an increase of casualties, because it will be very likely if Russia continues with the same tactics.

A lot of tanks left you say? Covert Cabal has just made a video about it:

https://youtu.be/wCeAW_KWcWQ?si=qVhTrlP5j3BORVt0

Basically all that's left in any numbers are T-62 and T-72A (aka Ural. As in the OG version that came out 50 years ago and pretty much stayed that way), with what's left of the other tanks has dwindled down a lot and it gets harder and harder to replace them. The T-90 are all used up, the T-80 almost, too, and the T72B variants are also almost totally drained.

Just to illustrate, here are the numbers of tanks Russia had in storage before the war and as per the latest count:

Keep in mind that some of the pictures from the bases where they count the tanks are as old as last summer, so in reality, the actual number is somewhat lower even then what is presented here.

There's one other tank that they have in reserve, the T-64... but as long as the manufacturer is in Ukrainian hands with all the know-how how to do proper maintenance on those tanks, let alone upgrade them, they won't be used much.

Also, for offensive actions they still need to use armour, without them they would be way too vulnerable. They just don't mass them together like they did before I hence less losses per day 

Edit: some clarifications and screenshots

Seems you edited with graphs mostly about Tanks. By armor I meant all possible vehicles that could be used offensively. I will add some images of my own.

Basically Russia's armor combat efficiency is essentially the same as 2022. Recently armor pushes were too wasteful, so they stopped using it so much, and maybe with terrain changes or a final push coinciding with a breakthrough they might use armor again.



Farsala said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

-snip-

Seems you edited with graphs mostly about Tanks. By armor I meant all possible vehicles that could be used offensively. I will add some images of my own.

Basically Russia's armor combat efficiency is essentially the same as 2022. Recently armor pushes were too wasteful, so they stopped using it so much, and maybe with terrain changes or a final push coinciding with a breakthrough they might use armor again.

Bolded: Absolutely not, though I can understand it looking that way at first glance until you think about it for more than a second.

Just think about it: The number of armored vehicles is almost the same... but the army is over twice as large as it was before the war, which means there's roughly half as many armored vehicles per brigade now. Hence why they don't do so many armor pushes anymore: they don't have many left, storage depots are empty now and they know they can't produce them fast enough to recover the losses on the battlefield, so they hold them back as much as they can. They have basically become too precious to use them in general assaults now for Russia.

Also, replacing the equipment with some from storage ain't exactly like-for-like exchange. There's a huge difference between a BTR-90 and a BTR-60, or a BMP-3 and a BMP-1, so combat efficiency certainly suffered, too. Plus with how long those were out withering away in the taiga, they can have small invisible or barely visible defects from rusting away so long, further limiting their efficiency.