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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

Jumpin on 18 September 2022
Ryuu96 said:
SecondWar said:

Armenia is in a tricky political situation there. Bear in mind Iran is a fairly close ally, if it gains US support then clearly it loses Iran. Also Israel backs Azerbaijan so possible the US tells Israel to cool it in that department. The 2020 war also started roughly the same time Armenia started trying to get closer to Nato, so it’s possible Russia almost let Azerbaijan attack in order to force Armenia back into line.

I’d always thought if things did escalate there into a larger regional war that the US would back Azerbaijan. Iran’s northwestern regions are primarily populated by ethnic Azeris. You’d reasonably suspects that Azerbaijan would want to claim those lands and those people would want to join Azerbaijan so probably wouldn’t be a hard sell.

But then, things are never straight forward in geopolitics. Also the hypothetical regional war I mentioned is probably not that far short of a world war so hopefully unlikely in any case.

Isn't Turkey a close ally of Azerbaijan? It wouldn't be surprising to me if Turkey is pushing Azerbaijan behind the scenes, Erdogan plays everyone, Russia, Europe, America, as long as it benefits him, curious to see how America handles him if they want to form closer bonds with Armenia.

CSTO is really collapsing before our very eyes though.

  1. Russia - Looking like a clown in Ukraine.
  2. Armenia - Being attacked by Azerbaijan and receiving little to no help from CSTO and as a result they're forming closer bonds with America.
  3. Kazakhstan - Publicly critical of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, sending aid to Ukraine, forming closer bonds with China and the West.
  4. Kyrgyzstan - Attacking Tajikistan.
  5. Tajikistan - Attacking Kyrgyzstan.
  6. Belarus.

Yeah, it looks like the Russian order has shattered.

This is kind of like a smaller scale version of when the British order collapsed around World War I.

I have a feeling Russia would be in even more trouble had the US not offered a hand of friendship to Iran, have it accepted, only for the US to subsequently pull the rug out from under Iran a few years back. It makes me wonder if there was some encouragement from Russian agents that caused this to happen, it was such a bizarre thing to do after almost successfully bringing Iran onto the path of Democratic Liberalization.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 19 September 2022

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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SanAndreasX on 18 September 2022
Jumpin said:
Ryuu96 said:

Isn't Turkey a close ally of Azerbaijan? It wouldn't be surprising to me if Turkey is pushing Azerbaijan behind the scenes, Erdogan plays everyone, Russia, Europe, America, as long as it benefits him, curious to see how America handles him if they want to form closer bonds with Armenia.

CSTO is really collapsing before our very eyes though.

  1. Russia - Looking like a clown in Ukraine.
  2. Armenia - Being attacked by Azerbaijan and receiving little to no help from CSTO and as a result they're forming closer bonds with America.
  3. Kazakhstan - Publicly critical of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, sending aid to Ukraine, forming closer bonds with China and the West.
  4. Kyrgyzstan - Attacking Tajikistan.
  5. Tajikistan - Attacking Kyrgyzstan.
  6. Belarus.

Yeah, it looks like the Russian order has shattered.

This is kind of like a smaller scale version of when the British order collapsed after World War I.

I have a feeling Russia would be in even more trouble had the US not pulled the right out from under Iran a few years back. It makes me wonder if there was some encouragement from Russian agents that caused this to happen, it was such a bizarre thing to do after almost successfully bringing Iran onto the path of Democratic Liberalization.

Much like with Cuba and Bay of Pigs, there's a certain segment of the American political establishment that will never be able to get past the Iran Hostage Crisis, so probably not so much.



haxxiy on 19 September 2022

Ukrainians really closing in on Kherson. It is my understanding that Russia cannot lose it since it guarantees the water supply to Crimea.



 

 

 

 

 

GaoGaiGarV on 19 September 2022
haxxiy said:

Ukrainians really closing in on Kherson. It is my understanding that Russia cannot lose it since it guarantees the water supply to Crimea.

Even if Ukraine takes Kherson city, as long as Russia controls the left bank of the Dnieper river in that area the water supply to Crimea remains secured.
I think it is virtually impossible for Ukraine to cross the river from Kherson since Russia can bobmard any attempt so they would have to fight their way through all of the east from the direction of Zaporizhzia which will be a topic for another phase of the war.



S.Peelman on 20 September 2022

I predict overwhelming 99% support for joining Russia!



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SecondWar on 20 September 2022

All null and void by default. There's obviously no real possibility of a 'No' vote being allowed, plus huge numbers of citizens have had to flee due to the invasion.



SecondWar on 20 September 2022
S.Peelman said:

I predict overwhelming 99% support for joining Russia!

More likely pre-determined to be 110%.



crissindahouse on 20 September 2022

Referendums make totally sense there. Especially when it doesn't matter what people vote for because of a predetermined result, when half of those who support Ukraine fled already and with the rest of those who are still there who are obviously too scared to go to vote. Has to be really great if you go to vote with some armed Russian dudes around you...but hey, at least those who really support to leave Ukraine (which may be like 20% there in these regions with many Russians living there) will have a great day (sadly)

Last edited by crissindahouse - on 20 September 2022

drkohler on 20 September 2022
crissindahouse said:

Russia: we use drones from Iran to fight in Ukraine

These relabeled Iranian suicide drones seems to turn into a major problem.

Rodion Kulagin, Artillery commmander of the 92. brigade reported 4 artillery tanks and 2 armored personnel carriers destroyed by those drones just in his area within days.



Rhonin the wizard on 20 September 2022

Last edited by Rhonin the wizard - on 20 September 2022