Ryuu96 said:
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Putin is getting desperate, it's an admittance that the sanctions hurt Russia badly and need them to be lifted for the country (and the military, remember the ban on chips with more than 25Mhz? Modern weapon systems rely on those) to function correctly down the road.
If Europe sees through his bluff (which I assume they do, and easily so), then Putin left the country in a devastating state: Crippling sanctions plus a stop on gas exports mean that the country runs dry of funds. I see the Russian economy taking a bigger nosedive in the next couple years than it did during the time of Boris Yeltsin, and that's quite a feat to achieve.
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Ryuu96 said:
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This is a risky move considering most Russians does not have favorable opinion on North Korea, that is if this holds any truth :
'Favorable perceptions of North Korea in Russia have gradually declined in recent years, with only 34% of Russians viewing North Korea as a friendly nation and 60% of Russians believing that North Korea's nuclear arms pose a threat to other countries; only 8% of Russians favor supporting North Korea in a potential conflict'
It is also particularly telling that they choose North Korea instead of China or other more align/stable country. The logical explanation here is that they cannot "choose" as their normal ally are doing the minimum they can to satisfy Putin while not getting sanctioned by NATO members.
This is also pretty revealing on Russia own weapon/munition manufacturing capacity. There's probably 2 main reason why they cannot up the game themselves:
1) Sanctions obviously.
2) The "war special operation is going fine narrative" as they cannot change to a full economy of war without revealing how bad the situation is.
So let me try to recapitulate.
Ukraine announced a counter offensive in Kherson oblast about 3 months ago and captured a handfull of smaler villages. Not much for Russia to feel threatened and the whole world did belittle the offensive capabilities of Ukraine. Ukraine constantly announced counter offensives in that area but Russia didn't budge. Ukraine got HIMARS and systematically destroyed lines of communication and weapon depots in Kherson but Russia didn't budge. Ukraine attacked Crimea and finally Russia felt threatened and did move large amounts of troops and material to Kherson. An area which is now hard to defend and because of all the destroyed lines of communication over the river it is hard to resupply the front lines meaning they only get drip-feeded. Despite the large amount of russian tropps they can't do much. So Ukraine not only started an actual counter offensive in Kherson where they can eliminate the aggressors one after another and thus needing fewer numbers of mechanized units, they can at the same time exploit the weakened lines of defence in the east and start counter offensives there needing fewer numbers of mechanized units.
Is "brilliant" the correct word or do we have to invent a better one?
Ryuu96 said:
And if Russia retreats, they're going to have to abandon a ton of equipment cause the bridges are shot to shit. Though if we're being honest, they're unlikely to retreat, Putin's going to make them stay to their deaths. |
Don't know about that, after all they did retreat from Kyiv vicinity. The prospects of having hundreds if not thousands of troops surrendering might be to much of a risk.
I seriously hope this whole debacle comes to an end soon. War is never something I'm happy to see...
KLAMarine said: I seriously hope this whole debacle comes to an end soon. War is never something I'm happy to see... |
That is entirely dependent on Russia and Putin. They have the power to end this at any time, by going home.
SanAndreasX said:
That is entirely dependent on Russia and Putin. They have the power to end this at any time, by going home. |
Well, actually it depends on the West's willingness to bring in the arms and ammunition that really, really hurts.
The Ukranian army is not and will never be in a position to overwhelm the Russian army on its own. The numbers are simply stacked against that. Unless Ukrania gets the "good" ammo to carpet bomb Russian border cities (lets say they aim at bridges, warehouses, railways, highways, but ultimately it means carpet bombing) and effectively threaten Belorussian/Transnistrian cities. These current counter offensive strikes look cool on twitter messages, but those gains cannot be held if Russia gets its mess organised. And sooner or later the Russians will have learned their lessons, currently there essentially is a culling of inept Russian commanders and officers on the field. They have unlimited cash and village idiots they can send into Ukrania while they are learning.
Ryuu96 said:
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Linking back to this as its a useful reference point for the post above.
If Ukraine are able to Shevchenkove then that salient around Semenivka is completely cut-off, which could well force the occupying troops there to surrender. Also interesting how/when they move against Izyum as it appears it is already cut-off from the main route into the city.
Last edited by SecondWar - on 08 September 2022A punch of salt lol.
If those gains are rue that is crazy. At what point does Russia walk away with their tail between their legs???? How many more incompetent events need to happen before their own people go this is stupid.