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Forums - Politics - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

Looks like Germany is seriously stepping up it's game considering the deliveries from last week were much higher than usual:
https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/lieferungen-ukraine-2054514

Among other things, this week's update contains:

  • 50000 155mm ammunition
  • 41000 ammunition for the Gepard 2
  • 56 MRAPs (probably Dingos)
  • 4 Zuzana 2 wheeled howitzer platforms
  • 5 different types of drones (4 for exploration, 1 attack drone), all in all over 600 of them
  • 2 Mine-clearing tanks and 16 mine-clearing plows
  • 650 Laser Rangefinders (until that point they sent a grand total of 120)
  • ~4000 Assault rifles (about the same amount they sent in total until that point)
  • 75000 shots for 40mm grenade launchers

And in preparation, they also have a bunch of stuff:

  • 221 MRAPs
  • 15 Leopard 1
  • 13 Gepard
  • 25 Marder
  • 2 Patriot Launchers
  • 2 Skynex Air Defense Systems
  • 6 IRIS-T Air Defense Systems
  • 54 RCH 155
  • 19 PzH 2000
  • 3500+ Drones, most of them attack drones
  • 11 Drone jammers
  • 6 Sea King Helicopter
  • 9 Bergepanzer 2 Armored Recovery vehicles
  • 2 Mine-clearing systems

So yeah, with that alone Ukraine will already be in a much better position, as Russia is running short on more and more equipment. And with the rest of Europe also ramping up their support after the US showed how unreliable they are, I believe that by late summer the advantage will be decisively in Ukraine's favor unless someone starts sending them more armored equipment.



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Got this from Ukraine's army FB page, but it has english for just about everything



Dear allies, the investigation of the Lithuanian prosecutor’s office has confirmed our suspicions that responsible for setting fires to shopping centres in Vilnius and Warsaw are the Russian secret services. Good to know before negotiations. Such is the nature of this state.

— Donald Tusk (@Donald-tusk.bsky.social) 17 March 2025 at 11:51


Trump is considering recognizing Crimea as Russian territory as part of a deal to end the war, sources tell Semafor. His admin has also discussed urging the UN to do the same. A move like this would align with Putin’s stance and likely spark global backlash.

www.semafor.com/article/03/1...

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 17 March 2025 at 19:06

🇺🇸🤦 "Tomorrow, I will speak with President Putin to save Ukrainian soldiers who are in a very difficult situation. They are surrounded by Russian forces. If it weren’t for me, they’d be gone already. I managed to convince them to hold off for now."

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 17 March 2025 at 20:37

🇺🇸❗ If peace talks with Russia fail, the U.S. may impose new sanctions, says White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

"Trump is ready to do it if necessary. But for now, there are no details—I won’t get ahead of the president on such a serious decision."

[image or embed]

— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 17 March 2025 at 20:08

1. Yet ANOTHER concession Trump is handing to Trump before Russia has handed a single one.

2. Is complete horseshit, Ukraine troops aren't surrounded, not sure why he is lying about "saving" them.

3. "May" Fucking LOL. Zero plan if Russia refuses a peace deal then.



Don't get me wrong, I also think Crimea is lost for Ukraine but that doesn't mean you have to just tell Russia it's theirs. You can still say that you will never recognize it as Russia even without trying to get it back which seems impossible as long as Ukraine would have to take it back alone.

That Trump says that he is the reason Ukrainian soldiers "would be gone already" without him even though they fought for years without him as President and considering that Russia is weakened so much by now is really a joke.



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crissindahouse said:

Don't get me wrong, I also think Crimea is lost for Ukraine but that doesn't mean you have to just tell Russia it's theirs. You can still say that you will never recognize it as Russia even without trying to get it back which seems impossible as long as Ukraine would have to take it back alone.

That Trump says that he is the reason Ukrainian soldiers "would be gone already" without him even though they fought for years without him as President and considering that Russia is weakened so much by now is really a joke.

Not by military means no but it should never be recognised as Russian territory, it only emboldens and encourages imperialism, and until Russia returns all their stolen territory, sanctions should remain in full force, but it's pretty obvious that America is going to remove every single sanction on Russia the moment this war is over and enter into a dozen business relationships. I'll give it a week after the war before Trump invites Putin to the White House and tells America how great of a person he is and they're going to make an amazing partnership.

Such a horrific precedence for America to start recognising annexations...

Straight up dangerous...We're heading back to WW2 era with this shit.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 17 March 2025

crissindahouse said:

Don't get me wrong, I also think Crimea is lost for Ukraine but that doesn't mean you have to just tell Russia it's theirs. You can still say that you will never recognize it as Russia even without trying to get it back which seems impossible as long as Ukraine would have to take it back alone.

That Trump says that he is the reason Ukrainian soldiers "would be gone already" without him even though they fought for years without him as President and considering that Russia is weakened so much by now is really a joke.

I don't think Russia is quite stable. It's not keeping up with the times, and especially a change in leadership could result in serious instability. The most likely scenario is that Russia as a single country will continue to exist for at least the next 100 years, but I don't think we can discount the possibility of it encountering a really unstable period which could also result in the breakup of Russia. That, of course, could allow the return of Crimea to Ukraine. I don't think it's particularly likely, but I don't think it's too unlikely to consider either. One particular scenario that would increase the chance of instability would be a major loss in Ukraine (and just to be clear, I don't think significant instability would be the most likely scenario even then).



Continuing from a post I did last month to answer a Russian troll, I'm compiling a list of all the shipments of equipment to Ukraine. Let me know if the format is okay for you guys.

I'll start here with Tanks and Armored Fighting vehicles, and I will continue with the other categories a bit later.

Vehicle Countries Shipped TBS Total Year
Tanks
T-72 (Soviet) Poland, Germany, Macedonia, Czechia, Netherlands 423 unknown 423 2022-2025
T-72 (modernized) Czechia (Netherlands, USA), Denmark 90 25 115 2023-2025
PT-91 Twardy Poland 60 60 2023-2025
Leopard 1 Germany, Netherlands, Denmark 103 52 155 2023-2025
Leopard 2 A4 Germany, Poland, Spain, Norway, Canada 49 24 73 2023-2025
Leopard 2 A5+/Strv 122 Germany, Portugal, Sweden 31 31 2023
M1 Abrams USA, Australia 31 49 80 2023-2025
M-84 Croatia, Germany 30 30 2024
M-55 Germany, Slovenia 28 28 2022-2023
Challenger 2 UK 14 14 2023
Total Tanks: 859 150 1009

In case you're wondering, I divided the Leopard 2 into 2 categories depending on the main gun (L44 or L55). They use the same ammo but the L55 can achieve higher velocity and accuracy.

Vehicle Countries Shipped TBS Total Year
AFV
Fennek Netherlands 9 9 2023
AMX-10 RC France 40 unknown 40 2023-2025
BpzV Svatavas Czechia unknown 0 2022-2023
FV 107 Scimitar UK 23 23 2023
Unnamed Combat and logistics UK 47 47 2025
BRDM-2 Poland, Bulgaria, Czechia 14 Unknown 14 2023
BVS-10 UK, Netherlands 40 28 68 2024-2025
Total AFV: 126 75 201

AMX-10 numbers are not up-to-date (last numbers are a year old, but shipments are ongoing), while the number of Bulgarian BRDM-2 are not mentioned, so I left an unknown number there as TBS (To Be Shipped)

Edit: formatting fixed

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 18 March 2025

🚨 Putin is demanding a halt to all weapons deliveries to Ukraine as part of a ceasefire proposed by Trump. Russia views the suspension of US aid as a key condition for any ceasefire agreement. The call is expected between 4 PM and 6 PM Moscow time.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 18 March 2025 at 10:35


Part 2 of shipments to Ukraine, with Infantry Fighting Vehicles and Armored Personnel Carriers:

Vehicle Countries Shipped TBS Total Year
IFV
BMP-1/BVP1/BWP-1 Czechia, Polans, Slovakia, Germany, Croatia, Greece 423 15 438 2022-2025
Marder Germany (Denmark) 140 25 165 2023-2025
M2 Bradley USA 300 unknown 300 2023-2025
CV9040 Sweden 50 Unknown 50 2023-2025
CV9035 Sweden, Netherlands, Denmark 75 75 2025
KTO Rosomak Poland 200 200 2023-2025
BMP-2 Denmark (Czechia) 80 80 2025
LAV-2 Canada 64 64 2025
GTK Boxer Germany 9 9 2025
Lynx Germany 1 9 10 2025
AIFV (YPR-765) Not mentioned, probably Netherlands unknown 0 2023
Unknown IFV Czechia 25 25 2024
Total IFV: 1139 277 1416

CV90 numbers are not up to date, no idea how many CV9040 have been sent by now or if the CV9035 have been shipped now.

Vehicle Countries Shipped TBS Total Year
APC
YPR-765 Netherlands 232 171 403 2023-2025
M113 USA, Lithuania, Australia, Germany, Denmark, Spain, UK, Benelux, Canada, Italy 1623 19 1642 2022-2025
FV103 Spartan UK 35 35 2022
VAB France 284 unknown 284 2023-2025
FV104 Samaritan UK 40 40 2022
Sisu XA-185 Finland 20 20 2022
BTR-60/TAB-71 Bulgaria, Romania 110 unknown 110 2022-2024
Bandvagn Germany, Netherlands, Italy 106 unknown 106 2023-2024
Stryker USA 400 400 2023-2025
BTR-50 Bulgaria unknown 0 2024-2025
GTK Boxer Germany unknown 0 2024
M1117 USA 400 400 2024-2025
APC(FV100/FV430) UK 424 424 2025
Warthog UK 156 156 2025
Unnamed APC Turkey(Ukraine purchase) unknown 0 2025
MT-LB Poland 60 60 2022
Pbv-302 Sweden 250 250 2024
Puma 6x6 Italy unknown 0 2024
LAV 6.0 Canada 39 50 89 2024-2025
Patria 6x6 Latvia 42 42 2024-2025
Total APC: 3599 862 4461

This is the big category for the US, having sent over half of all deliveries with 2000+ APC, 1200 of them being M113. They also tend to be quite flimsy as the Stryker and M1117 are meant for fast and early intervention, so hopefully more European deliveries will come in soon to make up for their losses. The UK having announced almost 600 APC deliveries early this year will already be a great replacement of American shipments if Trump rescinds support again, Starmer really goes all in with his support for Ukraine now. I just wish France would accelerate the shipments of VAB, as they have already 3 times the number of the replacement vehicles (Griffin and Serval) as they sent VAB according to the latest numbers.

As for the unnamed Turkish APC that Ukraine is buying, there are 3 possible candidates: Otokar Cobra I/II (wheeled), ACV-15 (tracked)... or some of the over 2800 M113 that Turkey still has in reserve. I do expect it to be the Cobra II though, since it's the only one in active production - and the fact that it's already in use in Ukraine.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 18 March 2025