To stop aid now means to help Putin. On the surface, this looks really bad. It looks like [Donald Trump] is pushing us towards capitulation, (accepting) Russia's demands. The main thing is that this a psychological blow, a political blow upon Ukraine, it doesn't help our spirit. This is worse than Munich, because at least there they didn't try to paint Czechoslovakia as the aggressor, but here they try to accuse the victim of aggression – it is extremely dangerous.
The Guardian
Recently, I asked Ukrainian frontline soldiers what they thought about the negotiations. Those in action are too busy fighting to follow everyday news from Munich, Riyadh, Washington and Kyiv. Yet they generally feel that "Donald Trump is heading in the wrong direction". Today, as Trump "pauses" all military aid, they will know those instincts were right.
It was never the case that American defence assistance – the real leverage the US has to pressure Ukraine to enter the deal with Russia – didn't matter to them. For the last weeks the Ukrainian media has been full of analysis and comment by the Ukrainian military on whether it is possible to fight without America's weapons. Soldiers and officers explained which equipment is critical to the effort, and raised concerns that the military leadership should have decreased its dependence on the Elon Musk-owned Starlink satellite service way earlier. But other military remind us that during the first months of the full-scale invasion, they fought with little US support, as the weapons they had initially been given were more suitable for guerrilla warfare than conventional war.
This morning, the Ukrainian air force reported destroying 65 Russian drones in nine Ukrainian regions. The suspension of the US weapons, which include ammunition, vehicles, and shells for air defence, won't affect today's battlefield. But it gives the Russians reason to intensify attacks on the energy infrastructure, something they have failed to destroy so far, primarily due to the existence of air defence. Also, after this step by Washington, the military expects the Kremlin to launch more ground attacks to exhaust Ukrainian arsenals.
Ukrainians noted but were not shaken by Trump and Vance's tone. For decades, we have had to communicate with Russians, who have lied, threatened and mocked human suffering. Even some European neighbours, the Hungarian and Slovakian leaders, act this way. During this latest meeting, it became evident that US leaders do not see Putin – the man whose army committed war crimes – as their enemy. All can see now that in Trump's world, as in Putin's world, a few big states have rights and can dominate small states.
The problem is not Zelenskyy not having "good cards", as the US leader said. It's an American president using his cards to help Putin. Since the American president does not want to have confrontational relations with the Kremlin, his only solution for the end of the war is to force Ukraine to agree to the Russian terms and for Trump, it looks like the fastest option.
Even After The White House Ambush and Now Trump’s Military Pause, Ukrainians are Defiant | The Guardian
"This decision is not about economics. It is driven fundamentally by Trump's view that Russia is willing to do a peace deal, and only Ukraine is the obstacle," Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general at defense think tank RUSI, said Tuesday in reaction to the reported halting in U.S. military aid. "But there is no evidence that Russia would be prepared to accept a deal, and what that would be. Indeed this decision will encourage Putin to ask for more — including Ukrainian demilitarisation and neutrality," he said in emailed comments.
"What will count most of all is how far the U.K. and Europe are prepared to help Ukraine in defiance of the U.S. Recent estimates suggest that only 20% of total military hardware supplied to Ukrainian forces is now from the U.S., 55% is home-produced in Ukraine and 25% from Europe and the rest of the world, but the 20% is the most lethal and important. Ukraine will not collapse — they already experienced an aid cutoff last year, but the effect will be cumulative," he said.
"More difficult would be stopping shipments of newly produced weapons from contracts Ukraine signed with the defense industry, though with funds provided by the United States. Legally, those belong to Ukraine" they noted, with the caveat that Trump's team "may be able to divert deliveries to U.S. forces" by using protocols that cite "national requirements."
The U.S. is Halting Military Aid to Ukraine, So What Happens Next?
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