I agree with Stickball and Squirrel that lower software sales and the fact that we can see trends much quicker in Japan than here due to their weekly sales estimates are the main reason the PS3 is being declared near-dead sooner. I think there are a couple other reasons though.

 The first is that in addition to poorer overall software sales Japan has already seen 2 huge games released that did terribly (Gundam and I forget the other, it may just be Gundam). That's normally a major indicator that a console is in trouble and since the US hasn't seen any huge games released since launch we haven't seen whether that's the case here also. The second reason Japan is ahead of the curve is because they already had a major sales holiday that caused no real increase in PS3 hardware or software sales. We'll have to wait until next year to see how the PS3 faired in its first full major sales season here.

Basically, in Japan we know PS3 sales are bad, its sales trend is even worse, a major sales period did nothing, and major games aren't selling themselves much less systems. In the US we know sales are bad, the trend seems bad but is uncertain at the moment, we're in the traditional slow sales period, and there haven't been any major games to test the viability of the system.

The focus is on Japan, because of the expectation for Sony to perform better in that market. US was always expected to be a 360 stronghold (and it currently is - maybe the only one), but people were expecting the PS3 to match the PS2 (at least a little?) in Japan.

Anyone got the PS3 release schedule for Japan BTW? Everyone is saying that the drought will be over soon - but I would like to see some proof please. Sales of Ninja Gaiden are going to be SO telling.

EDIT: You have to wonder how much of Sony's trouble stems from their own platforms - specifically the PSP. Seems the best 'console' to purchase these days if I wanted to play Sony 'styled' games. 

This is spot on. Japan has more concrete numbers to work with, and we've now seen in that country that 1) a top flight exclusive title and 2) a major holiday season haven't seriously boosted PS3 sales. There really isn't a crutch to fall back on at this point in Japan. Wait til the Holidays? We already did. Wait til the games start coming? We already have. Those arguments might fly here, but they're already come and gone over in the Rising Sun. 

That won't sink in until PS3 gets blown away this Xmas. When that happens there won't be much left for the Sony fanboy to cling to. Unless this is part of Sony's plan?? Pure genius, who thinks about the console that is 20M units behind. Then when noone is looking, bamb, first place...

Well, it's quite an assumption that PS3 will be "blown away" -- and I'd add that the terminology you've used is (probably) deliberately inflammatory. I think it's possible, sure, or even probable, but that's a far shot away from speaking in certain terms. 

This thread could have been called "Surprise!! The PS3 is doing better in Japan than in America", it would have at least seemed a little more positive :P

The following source numbers are taken from the CIA world factbook and VGChartz. 

Japan has a population 127 millions while the USA has 301 millions people, so for the sales to be the same population wise the USA have to sell 301/127 = 2.37 times more PS3s than Japan. More than that and the PS3 is doing worse in Japan, less than that and the PS3 is doing worse in USA. 

20 may:

USA: 19,539

Japan: 8,376

Ratio: 2.33  PS3 is doing slightly worse in the US but still similar numbers 

13 May:

USA: 21,921

Japan: 9,079

Ratio: 2.41 PS3 is doing slighlt better in the US but still similar numbers

06 May:

USA:25,102

Japan: 15,892

Ratio: 1.579 PS doing much worse in USA than Japan. 

29 April:

USA: 22,148

Japan: 14,010

Ratio: 1.58 PS doing much worse in USA than Japan.

 From this limited data it seems that the US weekly PS3 numbers hold steady at 20-25k while the Japan number went from a steady 10-15k a week (and the PS3 did similar there then than in the US) to a sub-10k a week with the PS3 now doing worse in Japan than in the US.

But two weeks are quickly come and gone so we will have to see if sub-10k is here to stay for PS3 in Japan, or worse, if it will go down and join the 360 numbers. 

 One funny thing is few people except maybe 360 fanboys would have predicted the 360 selling "almost as well" as the PS3 on a weekly basis with less than 10k difference in sales in Japan. Of course they might have preferred if the difference was between 50k 360s to 60k PS3s than 3k 460s to 9k PS3s but I guess you take what you can get.

One thing that I wonder is given that most all video game consoles have hardware shortages at launch that subsequently subsides, how many millions consoles are sold before the shortage ends and whether it has any meaning on whether it predicts overall success of a console (i.e. if consoles selling many millions until the shortage finishes are more likely to succeed) because if it does then the Wii is 7+ millions consoles sold before the end of the shortage, which is bloody impressive (I wonder what was the PS2 number).

But I heard on here that PS3 was going to be the future?

ballzack: didn't you hear? The future is six months ago.

Since no one can really predict the future, the future so far looks different then from their expectations.

Nice sig by the way. Always liked Clinton better anyway :D