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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

We really went a whole generation without seeing Metroid Prime 4 lmao. I do think the game could be big seeing how Dread and Prime remaster did, especially since i believe it will be in the launch year of the Switch and give it a nice shine since there won't be much games and it will have a shot to keep selling for years.

But yea, these results for the Switch confirm what i was saying imo. Nintendo doesn't care about how the Switch performs anymore, they are moving on to something else. If they wanted cared to keep it alive after the next console releases, they would be more careful about the decline and they are not even discounting the base model rn...

Switch will report a big decline in March 2024 for their annual sharing, they will project probably really low numbers but will have the "new system launch, reveal in the coming months" to soften the blow and build anticipation.

I think at this point it might not reach 150 millions, if it does it won't be more than 150-151.



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160rmf said:

The cliff is coming

Wasn't the whole cliff argument about Switch's success during the first year being an illusion of launch hype, and would ultimately be a failure because of dying sales after the launch hype ran out?



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin said:
160rmf said:

The cliff is coming

Wasn't the whole cliff argument about Switch's success during the first year being an illusion of launch hype, and would ultimately be a failure because of dying sales after the launch hype ran out?

Yep, everybody who wanted a Switch got it in 2017 because it already had all of Nintendo’s big hitters.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Jumpin said:
160rmf said:

The cliff is coming

Wasn't the whole cliff argument about Switch's success during the first year being an illusion of launch hype, and would ultimately be a failure because of dying sales after the launch hype ran out?



Jumpin said:
160rmf said:

The cliff is coming

Wasn't the whole cliff argument about Switch's success during the first year being an illusion of launch hype, and would ultimately be a failure because of dying sales after the launch hype ran out?

That was the original cliff argument, but it seems to change every year.  A new cliff argument comes out whenever Switch has a sudden negative change in sales (or sometimes a positive change too).

Most of 2018: "Nintendo launched all of it's big guns during 2017.  Sales are declining and are going to fall off a cliff."
Then Smash Bros released in late 2018 and critics were silenced for a short amount of time.

Early 2019: "Now that Smash Bros released, Nintendo has launched the last of it's big guns.  Sales are down and are going to fall off a cliff."
Then in the second half of 2019, several strong titles released for Switch and critics were temporarily silenced.

2020: "These high sales for Switch are due to COVID.  As soon as lockdowns end Switch sales will fall off a cliff."

2021:  "These high sales are still due to COVID."


2022 and most of 2023 didn't have much cliff talk because Nintendo released a lot of strong titles during this time period.

Late 2023: "Look at how much Switch sales have dropped.  Sales are about to fall off a cliff."

Heh, it's the same cliff talk that Switch has had for most of it's life.  It's not based on sound reasoning but on irrational beliefs.  Early on there was the irrational belief that Switch couldn't do well, because the Wii U didn't do well.  There is also an irrational belief that a Nintendo system can't beat the PS2's sales record.  Folks, records were made to be broken.  The PS2's record can be beaten and the Switch is the console that can do it.



Tober said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

reminds me of what people thought about Zelda before Breath of the Wild went on and shattered the sales records of the series

Not really a comparison. Firstly Zelda has a lot more games released and always had ups and downs sales wise. There was no downwards spiral like with the Prime games that occurred after the first one.

Well, let's look at the data here, shall we?

Twilight Princess sold more than Skyward sword, which sold more than A Link between Worlds, which sold more than Majora's Mask 3D, which sold more than Tri Force Heroes - and they released in that order until Breath of the Wild released.

So yes, this really compares well as Zelda also seemingly was on the decline before Breath of the Wild showed how well a great Zelda title can sell



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Tober said:

Not really a comparison. Firstly Zelda has a lot more games released and always had ups and downs sales wise. There was no downwards spiral like with the Prime games that occurred after the first one.

Well, let's look at the data here, shall we?

Twilight Princess sold more than Skyward sword, which sold more than A Link between Worlds, which sold more than Majora's Mask 3D, which sold more than Tri Force Heroes - and they released in that order until Breath of the Wild released.

So yes, this really compares well as Zelda also seemingly was on the decline before Breath of the Wild showed how well a great Zelda title can sell

If we use data let's not omit some of it shall we?

Ocarina of Time3D sold better than Skyward Sword and Phantom Hourglass. A Link Between worlds and Majora's Mask3D sold better than Spirit Tracks. Not sure why we start with Twilight Princess, it's not the first of its kind. But if we like to start with Gamecube then why not add Wind Waker to the conversation. And if we add the multiplayer Triforce Heroes, why not Four Sword Adventures, which Triforce Heroes handily wins.

Since mentioning the OoT/MM remakes on the 3DS, one should also consider the remake of Link's Awakening on Switch. For clarity's sake I'm not including the remasters Wind WakerHD, Twillight PrincessHD nor Skyward SwordHD

Breath of the Wild is a massive success. So is Link's Awakening Remake and Tears of the Kingdom, but neither will outsell Breath of the Wild.

So yes, Zelda has always been up/down in sales. That it has a higher ceiling nowadays does not change that.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

 There is also an irrational belief that a Nintendo system can't beat the PS2's sales record.  Folks, records were made to be broken.  The PS2's record can be beaten and the Switch is the console that can do it.

People just don't want to see Nintendo succeed, because it is a family friendly company that upholds some moral beliefs and doesn't get political (at least try to, not everyone one/ company is perfect).

Lets Go! 160M+



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.