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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Shtinamin_ on 04 December 2023
Renamed said:
javi741 said:

Highly skeptical of this rumor. The rumor states the new Switch Mini would be coming out in February 2024 even though Nintendo already confirmed earlier this year that there would be no new hardware released until April 2024 at the earliest. Also I would feel like this releasing in February would give Nintendo too short of a window to market the new model since typically Nintendo likes to give a few months to market the new model before they release it, a February release date would only give Nintendo a month to announce and market it which is too short.

Also tbh, unless a rumor comes from a reputable gaming website like Eurogamer, Video game Chronicles, its difficult to take seriously.

Reputable sites don't tend to report rumors.

True Renamed.

I like to think that the rumor of a Switch Mini will release in March 2025. Just cause almost every console made a "mini" after their successor was released. So why not a Switch mini after NG's release.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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Shtinamin_ on 04 December 2023
The_Liquid_Laser said:

We are in agreement that Switch will sell over 160M.  Not all of those systems you're describing above had sales "fall off a cliff" though.  The ones where that actually applies are the DS and PS4.  You are saying the DS went from 30M to 2.8M in 2 years and the PS4 went from 20.02m to 2.52m in 2 years.  That does describe sales falling off a cliff.

Most systems don't have tail end sales like that though.  For example, in the FY ending March 1994 the SNES did have sales of 11.06M and the following FY sales plummeted to 4.41M, a 60% drop.  But the next FY sales were 5.78M (+31%) and then 3.3M (-43%).  The net effect of this is that for 3 years, sales were fairly stable in the 5.78M to 3.3M range.  Sales did not continue to plummet.  Likewise the 3DS had sales like this for it's last several fiscal years: 8.74M (in 2015), 6.79M, 7.27M, 6.41M, 2.56M, 0.69M (in 2020).  These sales numbers are not near sales in the 3DS's peak year of 13.96M, but the sales numbers are fairly stable with an overall mild downward trend.  

This is more what we should be expecting from the Switch.  I do not expect sales in 2025 to only be around 10% of what they are this year.  I expect a more gradual downward trend (and I think you do too).  The most likely scenario is Switch will pass the 160M mark, but some people still see this as far fetched.

I think a cliff drop is anything near a -50% YoY.
And yes the SNES did do that, it dropped and stabilized at the lower "elevation". 3DS peaked really early and and was a "slide" rather than a cliff. though we could say it had a cliff in its 9th year (2.7M to 0.76M). Are these big cliffs, no. DS was the biggest cliff and is crazy how quickly it falls.
Not all consoles have a cliff, but a majority do. Hopefully the Switch never sells -50% YoY.

If the Switch sales -50% YoY, we should get a better understanding on how much the Switch will be able to sell in its life cycle.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

HyrulianScrolls on 10 December 2023

I think they copy Switch release strategy for successor and we get March 2025. So that gives switch another holiday without the successor to sell, which I think is what will take it to this 160 lt eventually



IcaroRibeiro on 10 December 2023

March 2025 would be great

Less stock issues I think



javi741 on 10 December 2023

I think Nintendo should do a March 2025 release instead of Holiday. They'd likely be able to handle Switch 2's stock better and they'd have 2 boosts in one year rather than 1 big boost in the Holiday. Switch 2 would also have more attention during a quiet month like March and they could fix any issues with the system before Holiday 2025.

The Switch 2 releasing in March 2025 instead of Holiday 2024 imo could be the difference in whether or not Switch 1 outsells PS2. Switch 1 could have one more relatively big Holiday before the successor.



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Fight-the-Streets on 10 December 2023

I'm also still in team 2025, most probably early 2025 (i.e. March-May) but it could even be as late as September 2025. I think Nintendo is smart and definitely want to have two boosts in the same year. Early adopters will buy the Switch 2 anyway, no matter when it's released. Therefore, it doesn't make sense to release it in the holidays season.

I think, the Switch was planned for holidays 2016 because the WiiU was already dead at that time, it didn't need another holidays season for its own. However, somehow the Switch was not yet ready by then, so Nintendo released it at the earliest next possible date which was March 3, 2017. From that perspective, it worked out well for Nintendo. However, I don't think it created a precedent month for releasing new consoles for Nintendo. Rationally thinking, for the release of Switch 2, January and February are no good months for releasing new hardware, therefore March would be the earliest possible. April, May or June would still be good but I think anything later would bite too much negatively into the fiscal year.



trunkswd on 10 December 2023

Early 2025 would help the Switch get to 160M. I think it comes down to what Nintendo has for holiday 2025 for the Switch (Pokémon Scarlet/Violet 2?) and what they have ready for launch for the Switch 2.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

znake on 10 December 2023

time to announce the last Wave of games for Nintendo Switch

Metroid 2 & 3 Remastered - February
Rhythm Heaven - March
Donkey Kong - May
Metroid 4 - Summer
Starfox adventures - September
Pokémon lets go Chikorita - November


Switch 2 early 2025



Amnesia on 10 December 2023
znake said:

time to announce the last Wave of games for Nintendo Switch

Metroid 2 & 3 Remastered - February
Rhythm Heaven - March
Donkey Kong - May
Metroid 4 - Summer
Starfox adventures - September
Pokémon lets go Chikorita - November


Switch 2 early 2025

Are you still a lot here to really believe that MP4 was reported because the first draft quality was disappointing?

This game was going to be ridiculous on Switch compared to the current gen, so they have cancelled the Switch release to upgrade it dramatically to have a strong technical demonstration on the next console.



archbrix on 10 December 2023
Amnesia said:
znake said:

time to announce the last Wave of games for Nintendo Switch

Metroid 2 & 3 Remastered - February
Rhythm Heaven - March
Donkey Kong - May
Metroid 4 - Summer
Starfox adventures - September
Pokémon lets go Chikorita - November


Switch 2 early 2025

Are you still a lot here to really believe that MP4 was reported because the first draft quality was disappointing?

This game was going to be ridiculous on Switch compared to the current gen, so they have cancelled the Switch release to upgrade it dramatically to have a strong technical demonstration on the next console.

Metroid Prime Remastered looks really good actually and Prime 4 could look even a bit better on Switch.

I think it's more likely that Nintendo would release two versions of the game that function just like comparing Metroid Prime on the Gamecube to Prime Remastered; fundamentally the exact same game, just with a next-gen coat of paint on Switch 2.