I'm also still in team 2025, most probably early 2025 (i.e. March-May) but it could even be as late as September 2025. I think Nintendo is smart and definitely want to have two boosts in the same year. Early adopters will buy the Switch 2 anyway, no matter when it's released. Therefore, it doesn't make sense to release it in the holidays season.
I think, the Switch was planned for holidays 2016 because the WiiU was already dead at that time, it didn't need another holidays season for its own. However, somehow the Switch was not yet ready by then, so Nintendo released it at the earliest next possible date which was March 3, 2017. From that perspective, it worked out well for Nintendo. However, I don't think it created a precedent month for releasing new consoles for Nintendo. Rationally thinking, for the release of Switch 2, January and February are no good months for releasing new hardware, therefore March would be the earliest possible. April, May or June would still be good but I think anything later would bite too much negatively into the fiscal year.