An unwanted April's fool. Thank you XtremeBG for the correction of the typo. Still, 2013 was the year the PS4 launched! I call that very impressive for the PS2!

Thanks for the clarification, yeah I thought that was weird. 23 years seems like a way too long shelf life. Yeah I checked my own personal charts I have, and was worried I needed to add another 10 years of shipments/selling. *Relief*

How long do we think Nintendo will continue to produce/ship/sell Nintendo Switch for after the release of the NG?
I persoanlly was thinking March 31, 2025 is when they stop producing, because they will stop putting software on the Switch at that time.

March 2025 is far too early for Nintendo to realistically discontinue the Switch. Nintendo is going to want to keep the Switch 1 as a safety net to lean on in case the Switch 2 fails, just like how the 3DS was a safety net for Nintendo just in case the Switch 1 failed. Even when the Switch launch the 3DS didn't discontinue until 3.5 years later because Nintendo just wanted to be safe with the 3DS's success in case the Switch 1 failed.

Nintendo will likely do something similar, I'm expecting the Switch 1 to be in production until 2027 as a "safety net" console. Plus the Switch 2 likely won't have a Switch Lite model its first few years and potentially an Oled Model either if the rumor is true that Switch 2 will go back to LCD, so Nintendo would want to offer at least some sort of Lite/Oled model for consumers with the OG Switch Lite/Oled to diversify options for the consumer since the Switch 2 may not offer it. Plus Nintendo may want to offer cheaper alternatives for consumers as well if they can't afford the Switch 2.

So the earliest I could see the Switch being discontinued is early 2026, but I'm thinking it won't be til 2027 when all production stops.

That makes a lot of sense having the Switch still be produced into the next 2-3 years of the NG.
I just think that it seems weird to be stopping software support on the Switch so early after the launch of the NG (rumors say in September or November, so 5-7 months). Is that cause they want us to be buying the NG and thats the incentive?

IIf the Switch continues to sell into 2027 then President Furuwaka's quote regarding the Switch lifecycle being at the mid-point in 2022 will make a lot of sense. Cause at the time of the quote the Switch was 5 years old, meaning that Switch will be selling for a decade.

Furukawa didn't specifically say that there will be no more 1st party Switch games after FY 2025, he just stated that you should expect Switch games at least until FY 2025, but that statement doesn't rule out the possibility of new games being made past FY 2025. Furukawa probably stated it like that as a sure promise he knows Nintendo could keep, because beyond FY 2025 it's still too far out to detail specific plans. Likely howevever Switch games should still be made beyond FY 2025 as I can't see Nintendo dropping software support for Switch 1 only 5 Months after the Switch 2 releases and completely disregard an install base of likely 150M if they want to keep the Switch 1 around as a safety net.

I’m not so sure Switch software support will just die as soon as Switch 2 releases, just look at the list of Nintendo IP that released on 3DS AFTER Switch launched.

March 24, 2017-Mario Sports Superstars

May 19, 2017-Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valencia

June 23, 2017-Ever Oasis

July 28, 2017-Hey! Pikmin, Miitopia

September 15, 2017-Metroid: Samus Returns

October 6, 2017-Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga+Bowser’s Minions

November 10, 2017-Mario Party: The Top 100

November 17, 2017-Pokemon Ultra Sun/Moon

January 19, 2018-Kirby Battle Royal

March 23, 2018-Detective Pikachu

June 8, 2018-Sushi Striker: The Way of Sushido

July 13, 2018-Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker

August 3, 2018-WarioWare Gold

October 12, 2018-Luigi’s Mansion

January 11, 2019-Mario & Luigi: Bowser’s Inside Story+Bowser Jr.’s Journey

March 8, 2019-Kirby’s Extra Epic Yarn

I don’t expect Switch to get that strong of support post-Switch 2 launch as many of those titles are the types of games Switch is currently getting in 2023/2024

Metroid: Samus Returns vs Metroid Prime Remastered

Mario & Luigi remakes vs Mario RPG/Paper Mario remakes

Detective Pikachu vs Detective Pikachu Returns

WarioWare Gold vs WarioWare: Move It!

Kirby’s Extra Epic Yarn vs Kirby Return to Dreamland Deluxe

Luigi’s Mansion port vs Luigi’s Mansion 2 port

Fire Emblem remake vs Fire Emblem remake (rumored)

I don’t think Switch will be getting any exclusives or as many titles as 3DS did but I can see a handful of cross-gen titles for 1-1.5 years after Switch 2 releases, especially smaller titles & eShop titles that don’t push Switch 2 hardware.

I agree that it would be rather weird for Nintendo to just stop supporting a consoles with an estimate of at least 150+M users, with so little time after the release of their new console.

Here are President Furuwaka's words when asked if the lifecycle of the Switch could be expanded further than the six and a half years it’s already been on sale.

"We are still working on software for the Switch for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025,"

He also stated that Nintendo would continue to focus on the Switch until the end of the current fiscal year ending March 2024. This lets me know that Nintendo will continue its focus on the Switch until the fiscal year ending March 2024 and the console will continue to see new games until March 31, 2025.

These came from VGC. https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/nintendos-president-says-it-will-continue-to-support-switch-next-year/

But why does it talk about March 31, 2024? What will happen then? Is that a sign that the NG comes out on April 1st? Or is that a sign that all Nintendo Switch production will shut down? I have no idea.
But regarding March 31, 2025 there will be no more software support, no more new games after that date. At least that's how I read it and comprehend it as.

Does this mean Nintendo has complete trust in their next console that the transition will be ~5 months smooth, that they can kill the Switch in ~5 months and bring their consumers to the NG that fast? Very interesting.

We can't really compare the support Switch will have after the successor gets released to the 3DS after the Switch.

Nintendo was coming out of a tough generation and 3DS was their pillar to stay afloat. Switch was a big turnaround for Nintendo in terms of market position, how they consolidate their teams and games on 1 system. I think they were scared it wouldn't pick up in the first year and so they could have relied on the 3DS a bit for income. They were totally different system anyway so they could afford to still have it on the market cause it wouldn't overshadow or compete with the Switch in any category.

But with a Switch successor.... it will definitely just be a Switch with boosted specs, probably more features and more premium design i guess. It might be backward compatible too. I doubt they will keep Switch around as much as they did with the 3DS and will instead want people to move over to the new one. Another important point is Switch never got a price cut cause it could sell without it. It for SURE could be sold at like 200$ and still make a profit. But it's still at it's original price. Nintendo is always really careful on their pricing and they won't put the successor at more than 400/450$ imo. Maybe 2 models like 1 for 400 and the other for 500$... but i think 350-450 is the sweet spot. Now why would they keep supporting the Switch ? It can confuse the consumer and maybe make him buy the cheaper one. With the install base of the Switch, they will probably do some big cross gen games. If they wanted to keep the Switch, i think they would have reduced the price this fall to make it last for a little while with the successor. But keeping it at the current price... to me it just sounds like they will fade out the Switch and move on. They won't cut the price of the Switch a few months or when the successor releases so the consumer buys the new one. 

So i was open to seeing the Switch become the best selling system but seeing how Nintendo isn't really aggressive even on it's last holiday season on the market... i feel like they don't care and are ready for the next thing. That will for sure cut the legs short on the Switch and i expect it to sell around 150-152 millions lifetime. 

At bold above:

1. At corporate meetings or business interviews companies usually (and Japanese companies in specific and Nintendo even more so) want to focus on the here and now which is always the current fiscal year (which for Nintendo always ends at March 31). Therefore, it's only natural that Furukawa says that they are focused on the Switch as there is no other current Nintendo system.
   
   
2. You interpret it wrongly. Again, asked about the Switch if it will still be supported in fiscal year 2025, Furukawa of course answers with a yes because 1. it's true and 2. anything else would shy away potential Switch buyers. Everything after that, i.e. starting from April 1, 2025 onwards is nothing Furukawa wants to share with investors, media and the public at this point as it's too early, irrespective if the Switch will still be supported or not. Again, Nintendo is a very conservative Japanese company that is very careful with the information they share and anything that's farther away than about 6 month (sometimes a bit more) will simply not be talked about.
3. I wouldn't bet that 2023 is Switch's last holiday season without competing with Switch 2. Ultimately, all these trusted leaks are all rubbish as Nintendo always can make strategical changes. And even without changes, I wouldn't trust those leaks that Switch 2 definitely comes out in 2024. 2025 is still another possible candidate. Irrespective if Switch 2 comes out in 2024 or 2025 there's still ample room for a price cut for the Switch.

Nintendo's history has shown that you could never be too comfortable that a successor will be just as big of a success right out of the gate. Just look at the Wii to Wii U, im sure many people automatically assumed that the Wii U would be a success just cause it was the sequel to the highly popular Wii, but instead it became the worst selling Nintendo system ever. Even though I don't find it likely the Switch 2 fails like that, you never know and Nintendo learned the hard way with the Wii U that just cause its a sequel to a successful platform does not guarantee success. So I find it unlikely Nintendo is gonna drop the Switch 1 as soon as Switch 2 comes out just cause Nintendo thinks Switch 2 will be super successful, they would want to keep the Switch 1 going for several years just in case Switch 2 fails.

Also, Nintendo even before the Switch launched expected the system to sell 100 Million units, but that didn't stop them from supporting the 3DS cause they only have 1 platform now and would've wanted to keep the 3DS as their safety net in case anything goes wrong with Switch 1 cause you can never be too certain for success with your new system.

It makes sense for Nintendo to keep releasing Switch 1 games even after the Switch 2 launches since the Switch 1 will already have a 150M install base while Switch 2 will only have a few million out the gate. Releasing Switch 1 games will help fill the gap in software sales since Switch 2 would have too little of an install base initially for software sales to be as high and profitable to solely depend on it, Switch 1 games with its large install base will still bring in those software sales and if Switch 2 has backwards compatibility they'll serve as new Switch 2 games as well. Once Switch 2 gets a high and profitable enough install base then Nintendo can fully focus on making Switch 2 exclusive games. This is exactly what most developers are doing between the PS4/5 & Xbox One/Series X generations. I expect Nintendo to do the same cause it'll be insane to drop a 150M install base system very quickly after you just launched a successor.