The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[zorg1000]

Shtinamin_ said:

javi741 said:

March 2025 is far too early for Nintendo to realistically discontinue the Switch. Nintendo is going to want to keep the Switch 1 as a safety net to lean on in case the Switch 2 fails, just like how the 3DS was a safety net for Nintendo just in case the Switch 1 failed. Even when the Switch launch the 3DS didn't discontinue until 3.5 years later because Nintendo just wanted to be safe with the 3DS's success in case the Switch 1 failed.

Nintendo will likely do something similar, I'm expecting the Switch 1 to be in production until 2027 as a "safety net" console. Plus the Switch 2 likely won't have a Switch Lite model its first few years and potentially an Oled Model either if the rumor is true that Switch 2 will go back to LCD, so Nintendo would want to offer at least some sort of Lite/Oled model for consumers with the OG Switch Lite/Oled to diversify options for the consumer since the Switch 2 may not offer it. Plus Nintendo may want to offer cheaper alternatives for consumers as well if they can't afford the Switch 2.

So the earliest I could see the Switch being discontinued is early 2026, but I'm thinking it won't be til 2027 when all production stops.

That makes a lot of sense having the Switch still be produced into the next 2-3 years of the NG.
I just think that it seems weird to be stopping software support on the Switch so early after the launch of the NG (rumors say in September or November, so 5-7 months). Is that cause they want us to be buying the NG and thats the incentive?

IIf the Switch continues to sell into 2027 then President Furuwaka's quote regarding the Switch lifecycle being at the mid-point in 2022 will make a lot of sense. Cause at the time of the quote the Switch was 5 years old, meaning that Switch will be selling for a decade.

I’m not so sure Switch software support will just die as soon as Switch 2 releases, just look at the list of Nintendo IP that released on 3DS AFTER Switch launched.

March 24, 2017-Mario Sports Superstars

May 19, 2017-Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valencia

June 23, 2017-Ever Oasis

July 28, 2017-Hey! Pikmin, Miitopia

September 15, 2017-Metroid: Samus Returns

October 6, 2017-Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga+Bowser’s Minions

November 10, 2017-Mario Party: The Top 100

November 17, 2017-Pokemon Ultra Sun/Moon

January 19, 2018-Kirby Battle Royal

March 23, 2018-Detective Pikachu

June 8, 2018-Sushi Striker: The Way of Sushido

July 13, 2018-Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker

August 3, 2018-WarioWare Gold

October 12, 2018-Luigi’s Mansion

January 11, 2019-Mario & Luigi: Bowser’s Inside Story+Bowser Jr.’s Journey

March 8, 2019-Kirby’s Extra Epic Yarn

I don’t expect Switch to get that strong of support post-Switch 2 launch as many of those titles are the types of games Switch is currently getting in 2023/2024

Metroid: Samus Returns vs Metroid Prime Remastered

Mario & Luigi remakes vs Mario RPG/Paper Mario remakes

Detective Pikachu vs Detective Pikachu Returns

WarioWare Gold vs WarioWare: Move It!

Kirby’s Extra Epic Yarn vs Kirby Return to Dreamland Deluxe

Luigi’s Mansion port vs Luigi’s Mansion 2 port

Fire Emblem remake vs Fire Emblem remake (rumored)

I don’t think Switch will be getting any exclusives or as many titles as 3DS did but I can see a handful of cross-gen titles for 1-1.5 years after Switch 2 releases, especially smaller titles & eShop titles that don’t push Switch 2 hardware.