Tbh even without a price cut for the Switch 1 I still think it'll have stronger post-successor legs than the DS. I'm predicting the Switch 2 to launch at 400$, so even if the OG Switch doesn't get a price cut you could still buy an OG Switch for 100$ less, for a good portion of people that may be the better option as a cheap way to get into the Switch ecosystem. Plus the Switch Lite will be half of the Switch 2's price, while the Switch Lite isn't anywhere near as popular as a regular Switch it could still have solid sales over the next few years as a very cheap alternative.

Compared to the DS, the DSI Xl was only 20$ cheaper than the 3DS once the 3DS quickly got its price cut after launch, anyone with half a brain cell would've rather just spent the extra 20$ for a much more superior system that plays both new 3DS games and old DS games, the price gap likely won't be as small between the Switch 2 & Switch 1. The DS Lite existed for 100$ at the time, but again the price gap wasn't as large as what we may see between the Switch 1 & Switch 2.

However, there also may be a good possibility that Nintendo may limit production of the OG Switch consoles in favor to produce and/or sell more Switch 2 systems. Once Switch 2 releases, clearly Nintendo would much rather push people towards Switch 2 to sell consumers new games and even older Switch 1 games. Like Soundwave said, I fully expect the Switch Lite to stick around for several years as the very budget friendly console, kinda like how the 2DS was to the Switch. Tbh tho I could see the OG Switch getting phased out though and Nintendo may just sell the Oled to encourage people to spend only 50$ more for the Switch 2, and to at least offer an Oled Switch for those who want it if the Switch 2 ends up just going for an LCD display like rumors are suggesting.

A potential good comparision for the Switch's post-successor sales may be the GBA. The GBA was widely successful and the DS launched at 150$ with GBA backwards combatibility while the GBA was 80$ at the time. Despite the DS looking like the far better device with it of course being far more powerful,innovative touch screen, and the ability to play DS & GBA games, the GBA still was selling impressively well even though the DS was already out and it being only 70$ more expensive.
The GBA sold around 7 Million Units between April 2005-March 2006, and an impressive 15 Million between Arpil 2004-March 2005.

Switch 1 may be able to do similar numbers if it's between 100-200$ cheaper than Switch 2.

It's good to take into context tho that the GBA was only 4 years old when the DS finished it's first year, Switch 1 will be around 8 years old which means that the GBA was far less likely to reach saturation than the Switch 1 at its 8th year, so we need to keep that in mind as well.

Gonna be interesting to see how it plays out.

That's going to be the main issue I think. 

Nintendo will want the consumer who today is buying a Switch at $299.99-$349.99 to buy the Switch 2 immediately in 2024 for a number of obvious reasons (faster userbase for Switch 2, that consumer can then be sold Switch 1 AND Switch 2 software, Nintendo doesn't have to convince them to upgrade again in 2-3 years that consumer is locked in). 

I don't really care either way so long as Switch 2 comes out soon, but it would make a lot of sense for them in that situation to squeeze Switch Regular and Switch OLED production down to a limited quantity and force people with $300+ in their wallet/credit card to have to channel that money into a Switch 2 instead. 

Really it's better for the consumer too, a parent trying to cheap out for example and getting a Switch at $299.99 when they could spend just a little more at $399.99 (possibly) and get the newest system which is going to have new software support for another 7-8+ years is really just forcing the consumer to do the right thing for themselves/kid they are buying for too. 

You look at the PS5/PS4 today ... would Sony rather have only 35 million PS5s sold versus 41 million PS4s but more PS4s sold because they discounted the system and kept supply high on it? Obviously it's much better for them to have the 41 million PS5 owners even if a chunk of those consumers were really OK with just buying the PS4 but sorta got pushed into getting the PS5. There's no benefit to cannibalizing your next-gen console sales, you're better off forcing people to have to buy the new system. Unless there is are extenuating circumstances, like for example Nintendo didn't have any assurance in 2016/17 that the Switch was going to be a hit (not smart to completely phase out the 3DS in that case) or there is a massive cost gap in generational hardware (3DS was sometimes as low as $99.99-$149.99 versus Switch at $299.99) and a library difference (3DS/DS library is incompatible with the Switch).

Yeah a $300/$350 Switch is way to close in price to a $350-$400 Switch 2. Even if it is actually $399.99, which I doubt it'll be that high, that's too close. Nintendo is gonna much rather have people buy the next gen system and have the potential to buy games from both gens, rather than just last gen.

Really the only two options are to cut off original & OLED production when successor comes out, or give them both big price discounts to try to sell them to the "cheaper" crowd. If people are buying a $300-$400 system Nintendo is gonna want them to be buying Switch 2, not Switch.

I think it is most likely Nintendo simply shuts down original & OLED production soon after Switch 2 launch (like say rigth after 2024 holiday season, assuming switch 2 is a 2024 holiday launch) and discounts the price heading into the Switch 2 launch just so they can sell those last few million in stock. Keep the Lite around at $200 just at low production levels, and basically completely move over to Switch 2 production. A slightly cheaper Switch1 doesn't have a place in a market with a slightly more expensive Switch2.

I think Nintendo will release a handheld only Switch Micro that actually fits in your pocket. If they do this, it’s all but guaranteed. It could even get close to 200 million.

Nintendo definitely won't drop the Switch & Switch Oled that early after launch. Even if the price gap between the Switch 1 & Switch 2 isn't that big, Nintendo would still definitely want to keep the Switch 1 around in case somehow the Switch 2 underperforms.

Nintendo definitely won't drop the Switch & Switch Oled that early after launch. Even if the price gap between the Switch 1 & Switch 2 isn't that big, Nintendo would still definitely want to keep the Switch 1 around in case somehow the Switch 2 underperforms.

Yeah. I said that before Zelda TotK launch. I based that checking the charts here on site for Pokemon Scarlet/Violet. The game sold well, but Switch sales were about the same between 2020-2022. Then TotK came and the same happened. Mario Wonders wiil be the same, 10-15 mi first week and how about Switch? Ok, it will hit 150M. 160? I doubt it. Anytime soon they will show the Switch 2 and new Mario 3D and Mario Kart 9 so this may kill the sales.