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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Ashadelo on 08 May 2025
CourageTCD said:

Where are the cliffers now? It's their time to shine!

Prolly afraid, everytime someone bets against the switch the switch always outshines their lowballs. 



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G2ThaUNiT on 08 May 2025
haxxiy said:
trunkswd said:

Some tariffs were put on hold. There is still a 145% tariff on China. Luckily Nintendo produces some of their consoles in Vietnam. Microsoft and Sony aren't so lucky. I hope he abandons the tariffs altogether, but I have zero expectations that is going to happen. 

AFAIK, the Vietnam thing turned out to be mostly cope and almost all of their production is in fact in China, same as the others.

Although I do expect a lot of consoles to magically turn out to be Vietnam-made in the coming months if the tariffs don't drop (Chinese exports to Vietnam have increased wildly in the last months) or consoles to be shipped as some other form of electronic product to avail of the exemptions.

I just saw this come up



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Soundwave on 08 May 2025

Nintendo could have 160+ if they want it, like I said it the question is always whether or not they really cared that much. It looks like with that forecast they're looking to phase the Switch 1 hardware out more quickly and force people to buy the Switch 2.



The_Liquid_Laser on 08 May 2025
trunkswd said:
RolStoppable said:

The forecast of 4.5m for this fiscal year is low, but Nintendo is coming off a fiscal year where they've revised down twice and still fell short a bit. For the FY ending March 2019 they projected 20m and ended up with just under 17m which led them to forecast a cautious 18m that turned out to become just over 21m. It has been common throughout Switch's lifecycle that Nintendo's forecasts have been off by a noteworthy margin, and the final tallies happened to be equally either over or under their original expectations. That's why I commonly say "if Nintendo hits their target" because it's exceptional when their forecasts for just about anything are on point.

But regardless of if you think that 4.5m will be accurate or is a result of Nintendo erring on the low side this time around, what's clear is that the OLED model will take a big hit this fiscal year. There's not much of a point in a premium model for an old console when the next gen can be bought for $100 more. I've talked about exactly this a few times before in this thread. It's the Lite and the original Switch which will have to do the work to get past the 160m mark and they've declined year over year by only 22% each compared to the OLED's 37% drop.

In any case, this FY's 4.5m target is a lot more feasible than last FY's 13.5m. A year ago we had to speculate what Nintendo has in the bag to accomplish their lofty goal, but this time around it's probably easy to agree on Nintendo not doing much of anything.

Unless the economy crashes and the tariffs situation in the US gets worse, I expect Nintendo to reach its forecast for the fiscal year and possibly beat it by a little bit. 15 million for the Switch 2 also seems cautious. 

If the economy does poorly, then the Switch 1 will do even better.  It will be a low cost alternative to the Switch 2 or PS5.



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javi741 on 08 May 2025

At this point any price cut for Switch 1 should be out the question. Inflation rates clearly been higher than ever since the existence of consoles and there's heavy uncertainty regarding the tariffs. I wouldn't hold my breath at all that Nintendo will price cut the Switch 1 to make a bigger push to 160M. At this point the best thing Nintendo could do is still make decently big software for Switch 1, or even sell new variants or make a new model of Switch 1, which isn't out the question considering Nintendo has released revisions even after their successors launches, but I'm getting the idea that Nintendo isn't interested in making a new Switch 1 model this late and would rather just focus on Switch 2.



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haxxiy on 08 May 2025
G2ThaUNiT said:

I just saw this come up

Gibson has a social media history of trying to wish this into reality. The funny part is that this is mentioned nowhere in the article or Nintendo's 2025 financial guidance.

I have no doubt most of their Vietnam production would go to the US, as a Bloomberg contributor reported a month ago. It's just that it might not be enough for it not to be supply-constrained there, since, as Nikkei disclosed, manufacturing outside of China never ramped up after 2020.

No company expected this tariff bullshit to come back, after all.



 

 

 

 

 

Blood_Tears on 08 May 2025
haxxiy said:
G2ThaUNiT said:

I just saw this come up

Gibson has a social media history of trying to wish this into reality. The funny part is that this is mentioned nowhere in the article or Nintendo's 2025 financial guidance.

I have no doubt most of their Vietnam production would go to the US, as a Bloomberg contributor reported a month ago. It's just that it might not be enough for it not to be supply-constrained there, since, as Nikkei disclosed, manufacturing outside of China never ramped up after 2020.

No company expected this tariff bullshit to come back, after all.

This!

Gibson's takes have been borderline Patcher level as of late when it comes to the industry. 



Fight-the-Streets on 08 May 2025

I don't take Nintendo's forecasts serious anymore. I think 15 mil is lowballing for the Switch 2 as well as the 4.5 mil for the Switch 1. We have to wait and see but calculations made based on Nintendo's forecasts are ill-advised.



CourageTCD on 08 May 2025

Didn't we get shipments estimatives for FY2026 Q1?



Farsala on 08 May 2025
Fight-the-Streets said:

I don't take Nintendo's forecasts serious anymore. I think 15 mil is lowballing for the Switch 2 as well as the 4.5 mil for the Switch 1. We have to wait and see but calculations made based on Nintendo's forecasts are ill-advised.

On the other hand this is kind of an advisory for the manufacturing companies. I think they can give some leeway for ramping up production for switch 2, but for the switch, I don't think they can up production by much, maybe 25%. The contracts are kind of already in place.