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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Shtinamin_ 1 day ago
PAOerfulone said:

That’s true. I use the 151.16 number as the minimum that indicates that they at least shipped that many units and that tracking is not too far off/mostly accurate.

I don’t know how @trunkswd determines what’s over or undertracked or what’s just right, what tools he uses, what benchmarks he looks for, etc. So I can only assume. I would say if it’s within 151.16 - 151.66 (500k) of sales numbers for the quarter, that it’s pretty much spot on. Anything over that would indicate under-tracking, anything under that would indicate over-tracking.

But again, that’s me taking a complete shot in the dark. I have no idea what is actually the case.

I do the exact same thing. I’m not too worried as long as I get idea what position the Switch is in. And now the Switch 2.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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Shtinamin_ 1 day ago
CourageTCD said:

Rumors say that there will be a Switch 1 Direct in February. If that's true, I think Nintendo really intends to stick with the Switch 1 at least until the first half of the year, still making efforts to make people buy it. That's different from "save your money until the Switch 2 get released". Another thing is that the Switch 2 Direct will be on April. I think that releasing the Switch 2 less than 4 months after a Direct is rushing up things. So combining everything I said, I see Nintendo activelly promoting the Switch 1 until June/July and releasing the Switch 2 in August/September. I see games being released in both Switch 1 and Switch 2 for a while so the Switch 1 will still have a place during 2025 holidays

There will be a Pokemon Presents in February, maybe Nintendo releases their Direct a week before the Presents?

I see July/August making the most sense for a Switch 2 launch. And Nintendo said that Switch will continue to receive 1st party software until Mar 31 2025. After that looks like the rest will be on Switch 2.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Norion 1 day ago
CourageTCD said:

Rumors say that there will be a Switch 1 Direct in February. If that's true, I think Nintendo really intends to stick with the Switch 1 at least until the first half of the year, still making efforts to make people buy it. That's different from "save your money until the Switch 2 get released". Another thing is that the Switch 2 Direct will be on April. I think that releasing the Switch 2 less than 4 months after a Direct is rushing up things. So combining everything I said, I see Nintendo activelly promoting the Switch 1 until June/July and releasing the Switch 2 in August/September. I see games being released in both Switch 1 and Switch 2 for a while so the Switch 1 will still have a place during 2025 holidays

The Switch launched 4.5 months after the reveal and a bit over 1.5 after the big presentation for it so within two months after the direct wouldn't really be unusual.



Fight-the-Streets 23 hours ago
CourageTCD said:

Rumors say that there will be a Switch 1 Direct in February. If that's true, I think Nintendo really intends to stick with the Switch 1 at least until the first half of the year, still making efforts to make people buy it. That's different from "save your money until the Switch 2 get released". Another thing is that the Switch 2 Direct will be on April. I think that releasing the Switch 2 less than 4 months after a Direct is rushing up things. So combining everything I said, I see Nintendo activelly promoting the Switch 1 until June/July and releasing the Switch 2 in August/September. I see games being released in both Switch 1 and Switch 2 for a while so the Switch 1 will still have a place during 2025 holidays

Shtinamin_ said:

There will be a Pokemon Presents in February, maybe Nintendo releases their Direct a week before the Presents?

I see July/August making the most sense for a Switch 2 launch. And Nintendo said that Switch will continue to receive 1st party software until Mar 31 2025. After that looks like the rest will be on Switch 2.

Norion said:

The Switch launched 4.5 months after the reveal and a bit over 1.5 after the big presentation for it so within two months after the direct wouldn't really be unusual.

At bold: I’m in agreement with Norion here. Let’s determine which months make sense for the Switch 2 launch:

April:
Unrealistic, as it’s the month of the presentation, and live hands-on events will still be running through April and into early June.

May:
A mid-to-late May release is possible. I’d say it’s the second most likely option, as the live hands-on events in the primary markets (North America, Europe, and Japan) will have concluded by then.

June:
This is the most likely launch month, as it comes right after the hands-on events in April and May for the primary markets.

July/August:
Unrealistic, as these are summer holiday months. You’d want to release a new product either before or after the holiday season.

September:
While this would be a good month for a launch, the effect of the live hands-on events will have faded by then. Too much time would have passed between the events and the release. Additionally, FY Q1 financials (April to June) would look very poor for shareholders, and it’s doubtful the FY half-year report (April to September) would satisfy them, even with a successful September launch.

October/November/December:
Similar issues as with September, plus the release would be too close to the Christmas holiday season. This time, I think Nintendo will want to avoid a holiday release because:

  1. The Switch 2 will sell out regardless of when it launches. Releasing it earlier allows for two waves—one targeting enthusiasts and another aimed at holiday shoppers. This staggered approach would help mitigate product shortages and frustrate scalpers.
  2. Nintendo cannot afford to go through more than the first half of the fiscal year (April to September) with weak financials.





super_etecoon 22 hours ago

Regarding launch timing,

Doesn’t 05-25-25….or 25-05-25 have a nice ring to it?



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Torpoleon 20 hours ago

June should be a realistic month for release, and it is when I've been thinking for a while that they should release NS2. Only about 2 months after the direct, much like how NS1 was released only about 2 months after the Jan 2017 presentation.

Regarding a Nintendo Direct in February, I can see that happening either the first or second week of February and then the Pokemon Direct would be in its usual spot in the last week of Feb.



super_etecoon 16 hours ago
super_etecoon said:

Regarding launch timing,

Doesn’t 05-25-25 or 25-05-25 have a nice ring to it?

I know this speculation of the Switch 2 release date probably belongs in a more specific thread, but since the topic was already here I wanted to check into my theorized 05-25-25 release date. At first I just liked the look of the date and it reminds me of the 09-09-99 release date of the Dreamcast, which I always thought was a pretty great marketing tactic. The Dreamcast failed, but we all know that it didn’t have anything to do with their marketing or games. 

Anyway, I wanted to see what day of the week Nintendo generally releases their systems on. Here’s what I found. Note, all of these dates are for NA release. 

Switch: 03-03-17 (Friday)

WiiU: 11-18-12 (Sunday)

3DS: 03-27-11 (Sunday)

Wii: 11-19-06 (Sunday)

DS: 11-21-04 (Sunday)

GameCube 09-14-01 (Friday)

N64 09-29-96 (Sunday)

SNES 08-23-91 (Friday)

NES 09-27-86 (Saturday)

05-25-25 is on a Sunday, just like the vast majority of their recent console releases. Friday seems to be the next most common with the Switch being the most recent example. Obviously this doesn’t mean anything, but it’s still interesting. 



PAOerfulone 16 hours ago
super_etecoon said:

Regarding launch timing,

Doesn’t 05-25-25….or 25-05-25 have a nice ring to it?

I'll do ya one better.

06-06-25

Switch 1 was released on 03/03

Switch 2 being released on 06/06 would be poetic with it being the sequel.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

Current Thread

Switch 1 '25 vs DS '11, 3DS '17, and Wii '12

Older Threads:

PlayStation/Xbox/Switch: 2022 Edition

PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition!
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2017 vs. 2018
PlayStation 4: 2015 vs. 2016 vs. 2017

super_etecoon 16 hours ago
PAOerfulone said:
super_etecoon said:

Regarding launch timing,

Doesn’t 05-25-25….or 25-05-25 have a nice ring to it?

I'll do ya one better.

06-06-25

Switch 1 was released on 03/03

Switch 2 being released on 06/06 would be poetic with it being the sequel.

Definitely works as well, and it’s a Friday which is the other common release day. Both seem plausible to me and within two weeks of each other. 



archbrix 15 hours ago
super_etecoon said:
PAOerfulone said:

I'll do ya one better.

06-06-25

Switch 1 was released on 03/03

Switch 2 being released on 06/06 would be poetic with it being the sequel.

Definitely works as well, and it’s a Friday which is the other common release day. Both seem plausible to me and within two weeks of each other. 

Yeah, May 25th is a Sunday, which Nintendo used to do launches on, but now that it does Thursdays or Fridays, June 6th sounds pretty likely for Switch 2 actually.

In any case, I'd bet that it launches sometime in May or June.  If it doesn't, I doubt it releases before September.