Inflation isn't exactly an accurate metric though.

Take the PS1 and the Xbox, which were both sold at a loss at launch:  PS1 would be right about $500 in 2020, which lines up with the PS5 perfectly.  But an Xbox in 2020 would be $439, which is cheaper than the Series X.  I'm sure Microsoft took a bigger loss than Sony with their OG systems, but neither of the new consoles sold at a loss at all in 2020.  So there are other variables at play.

I think the main thing to consider here is that we are talking about Nintendo.  I had originally pegged the Switch 2 anywhere between $419 - $449 when you consider the dock, etc.  And I don't think that $450 is out of the question, but that would be the absolute maximum in my opinion.  I would bet money that Switch 2 (physical) is not as much as $499.  Not unless it's bundled with a game or some extensive extras.

The will produce it till the end of march 2027 at least. Mark my words!

I can see it selling less than 6 million. The DS only sold 5 million when the year 3DS came out. And that was with a bad 3DS launch and DS being cheap and getting more Pokemon games. There comes a point when the market is saturated. Nintendo are about to drop their Switch Sales forecast for the 2nd time this past year.

The only way the Switch sells some of these optimistic projections people are making is with a big price cut and there's no guarantee Nintendo will do that in the current tech climate.

The PS5 is cutting edge though and benefits from the failure of the new Xbox lines. ALso over half od PS players still on the PS4, which suggests many can't afford the upgrade.

Nintendo still need to be seen as value friendly or they tend to sell not to well (The N64 for example). We must also consider inflation crisis means many people have less spending money than 2017.

Nintendo's next financial update is on February 4th, covering the holiday quarter that ended a few weeks ago. Switch shipments will have passed the 150m mark, but it obviously matters by how much.

The already recorded numbers this fiscal year don't divert from my expectations, hence why I've had little reason to post in this thread. Switch 2's reveal doesn't change anything either. More relevant than Switch 2's launch timing is the next Direct for Switch games which is rumored to happen in February, because that one will provide a good idea of how robust first party support will be going forward.

It was precisely b/c of that bad 3DS launch that the DS only sold 5 million that year. The 3DS sold so badly at launch that Nintendo had to cut its price to $170, only $40 more expensive than the $130 DSi. It would be like if the Switch 2 received a price cut to $350 only 2 months after it launched. As soon as Nintendo cut the price for the 3DS, no reason existed for people to get a DS, especially since the 3DS had full backward compatibility.

And let's assume the Switch does only sell as well as the DS post-replacement from this quarter onwards. Switch sales this holiday are looking to be about on par with last year, about 6 mil. That gives us a total of 152m Switches shipped through Dec 2024. From the start of 2011, when it was replaced, the DS sold 9.42m more units until it was discontinued. Assuming the Switch sells the exact same amount (which for the reasons I just mentioned would be a very conservative estimate), it would still make it past 161m lifetime. In summary, 160m is not an optimistic projection at all

Today I finally found the motivation to update my longrunning spreadsheet.

What I consider the most relevant numbers concern the Switch Lite and the original Switch, because these two will be the models with the better chances to continue to sell after Switch 2's launch due to the obvious factor of price in comparison to Switch 2. The OLED model's role is either the premium option for new Switch owners or the upgrade path for existing Switch owners, so in both cases it's very likely that Switch 2 will replace the respective purpose for the most part.

Year over year performance through two fiscal quarters:

OLED - down 46%. Worth mentioning here is that the previous fiscal year had Tears of the Kingdom including a Zelda-themed OLED special edition, so the yoy drop gets amplified significantly.

Lite - up 8%.
Original - up 1%.

These two models being essentially flat yoy is an encouraging sign, although it needs to be acknowledged that both combined are on track to account for less than 50% of all Switch consoles sold for the third fiscal year in a row, so in raw volume they aren't that big. During the entire previous fiscal year they combined for 6.38m units.

The SKU breakdown is the thing to look out for in the second half of this fiscal year, because their momentum will be more important than Switch's as a whole when we are moving further into late adopter territory.

Exactly. I don't see the Switch 2 having to drop a full $80 five months in due to a lack of games and a gimmick that won't sell it.

And unlike the 3DS to Switch transition, buying into a Switch now grants consumers the ability to transfer their accounts and games over to a Switch 2 in the future unlike the 3DS, which essentially became a dead-end purchase at that point.  And the 3DS still managed to sell around 9m after the Switch released.

Bringing this post back because I've kept doing this every few quarters. Three fiscal quarters have passed since the last time and Japan is so far ahead of my expectations that its target will be revised to 40m which in turn increases the global target to 165m. Shipments by region by September 30th 2024:

Japan: 35.62m, so ~4m to go to hit 40m.
Americas: 56.11m, so ~4m to go to hit 60m.
Europe: 37.52m, so ~7m to go to hit 45m.
Other: 16.79m, so ~3m to go to hit 20m.

Again, these targets now total 165m, so not all of them need to be met to beat the PS2. Japan beats my expectations, but in turn Europe and Other lag behind a bit. 2024 didn't get a Pokémon game, but Super Mario Party Jamboree works as a substitute.