The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[RolStoppable]

Today I finally found the motivation to update my longrunning spreadsheet.

What I consider the most relevant numbers concern the Switch Lite and the original Switch, because these two will be the models with the better chances to continue to sell after Switch 2's launch due to the obvious factor of price in comparison to Switch 2. The OLED model's role is either the premium option for new Switch owners or the upgrade path for existing Switch owners, so in both cases it's very likely that Switch 2 will replace the respective purpose for the most part.

Year over year performance through two fiscal quarters:

OLED - down 46%. Worth mentioning here is that the previous fiscal year had Tears of the Kingdom including a Zelda-themed OLED special edition, so the yoy drop gets amplified significantly.

Lite - up 8%.
Original - up 1%.

These two models being essentially flat yoy is an encouraging sign, although it needs to be acknowledged that both combined are on track to account for less than 50% of all Switch consoles sold for the third fiscal year in a row, so in raw volume they aren't that big. During the entire previous fiscal year they combined for 6.38m units.

The SKU breakdown is the thing to look out for in the second half of this fiscal year, because their momentum will be more important than Switch's as a whole when we are moving further into late adopter territory.