Pokemon and Prime aren't really gonna sell more systems. Metroid is unfortunately not in any way shape or form a system seller and never has been, and this will be the 6th pokemon on the system so that isn't gonna sell many systems either. Also very possible both these games also come out on the successor as well, further diminishing their impact on Switch.

And at this point I think we can fully expect Nintendo to do your second part - no price cuts. I don't think they will deliberately kill production, but that is essentially what they are doing with no price cuts. If Switch 2 is $400 nobody is going to be buying a Switch OLED at $350, and few people will buy a Switch at $300 so those models might sell total like 1 million after S2 launches. Only the $200 Lite should still be in play with anything but very small numbers after the first half of this year (assuming the successor launches in late Spring).

So it is almost guaranteed Switch won't come close to the post-successor sales that the person mentioned above for some other systems. It really comes down to how many budget shoppers and parents of young kids are going to be buying the Lite over the next couple years. My thinking is Switch will sell under 5 million after successor launches - maybe 3.5-4m Lites and <1m hybrids.

If it's at say 152m sold when 2 comes out, I'd say 156m might be the final tally, unless Nintendo suddenly decides on a change of strategy and does indeed do a price cut, or if they made a blunder with 2 and have to price it above $400, or if the Lite turns out to be a popular budget system in it's post-successor life. So there are still possibilities for it getting to high 150s or even stretching to 160m, it just doesn't seem likely since presumably Nintendo is smart enough to keep their next system affordable and they've still not done a price cut even though it would have made sense to do one over a year ago.

At this point I'd put it at likely 156-157m lifetime.

Anyway, it will be interesting! I'd love to see 160m, but I think Nintendo will show no interest in that as they shift all their focus to S2 and not do anything to help Switch sell more.

Pokemon and Prime are absolutely going to sell systems because thats what large releases do. They bring attention to the platform, which in turn sells systems. If you are going to believe rumors of Switch 2 releasing in Spring then you could atleast give some credence to an acknowledged leak by Nintendo and The Pokemon Company. The leak has apparently revealed Pokemon ZA does not have a Switch 2 sku, therefore it's reasonable to believe atleast Pokemon isn't crossgen. 

We continue to state things like Nintendo will not cut the price but we just saw the Switch's best holiday bundles and prices this past season. So no it's not safe to say Nintendo will do nothing because thats the exact opposite of what they just did. Switch was supposed to be massively down in November and the deals completely changed that. 

As for your numbers, they are grossly underestimated. 1 million between Switch and Switch Oled after Switch 2 release is crazy low. Japan could probably do that alone. People such as yourself need to accept, consumers interested in buying Switch games aren't turning to Switch 2 and it's higher price tag and likely higher games. We are seeing Super Mario Party Jamboree move crazy numbers because Switch has a very healthy appeal to the general audience. The general audience is very large and isn't as hunger to upgrade as you are. 

@PAOerfulone Honestly, I don't think we should expect the Switch 2 to be $400 at launch, even if it is less powerful than PS5 & XSX, considering it operates as a handheld as well. I would think that $450 for a digital only version and $500 for a physical/digital model would make sense so that they can maximize profit, assuming the launch lineup is ready. Same price as PS5 even if it is less powerful, but the Switch was the same price as the PS4 & XONE in 2017, despite being less powerful. If Nintendo permanently slashed the price of the Switch going into last holiday, I'd be inclined to say $400-$450, but it appears they are keeping the current pricing, so I could see these offerings:

Switch Lite: $200

Switch V2: $300

Switch OLED: $350

Switch 2 Digital: $450

Switch 2 Physical/Digital: $500

I feel like the lowest Switch 2 model should be at least $100 more expensive than the Switch OLED in order to justify both of their existences. The Switch 2 models would use LCD screens by the way, but considering how the screen and controllers will almost certainly be bigger and the hardware will be more powerful (likely 4K docked), it would justify the $100 increase over the OLED. Helps that most Switch owners seem to just have the original with the 6.2 inch screen. I do see Lite and OLED models coming later down the road for Switch 2 of course.

Well Nintendo did say they were committed to supporting the Switch through 2027 so unless they really don't have the production capacity to do anything more than clear out existing inventory I'd like to believe that promise comes with hardware production through 2027 as well

That makes me think even in our current age of price cuts dying out that a price cut is coming for Switch.

Switch and Switch OLED for $300 and $350 will be a lot by 2027, even more than it is right now in a value proposition. Switch 2 is tracking at $400, as $500 seems way too expensive for a Nintendo platform (excluding inflation from the earlier days when video games were a smaller market). 

I do think a price cut will help move more Switch units, but it depends when it would happen for how much it would help. 

Man, another week has come and nothing about the Switch 2's announcement. Sometimes I wonder if Nintendo cares about the Switch 2's announcement overshadowing one of their games releases. Last year I was sure Nintendo wouldn't announce its new console in 2024 because it would overshadow Echos of Wisdom, Jamboree and Brothership, and it turned out I was right. But I'm not sure if they care about overshadowing remakes/remasters like DCK Returns and Xeno X. I thought they don't, but now I'm starting to reconsider it. I don't see Nintendo announcing the Switch 2 this week, for example, with DCK Returns HD right on the corner. Well, in the end, the more Nintendo waits for the announcing Switch 2 the more the Switch 1 benefits from it and its road to 160m+ becomes more possible

I don't think Nintendo will price the Switch too high. $400 seems to be the sweet spot, $450 is possible but wouldn't be good for sales. Above $450 is definitely too much. (Of course the Switch 2 will be outsold at any price during its launch months). Above $400 is simply not in the price range Nintendo wants to be. They need those parents who buy consoles for their kids and I just don't see them doing it above $400.

Yeah, I thought Switch 2 might clock in at a bit over $400 before, but if the claims of the motherboard leak are correct and it's Samsung 8nm, then $399 sounds about right and would be good for a new game system from Nintendo with this functionality in 2025.  No way in hell will Switch 2 be $500.

@archbrix @Fight-the-Streets $300 in 2017 would be the equivalent of almost $400 today (about $386), so if the Switch would technically cost $400 basically in today's dollars, it's not unreasonable to expect a successor to be $450-$500. The PS5 has no problems keeping close to the PS4's sales trajectory despite the much higher price (and severe supply constraints early on).