The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Sephiran]

Slownenberg said:

CheddarPlease said:

In terms of shipped, it's gonna be at 153m by the end of March. I don't see how they wouldn't be able to push another 6m this year with Legends Z-A and Metroid Prime 4, which would get it to 159m by March 2026. Imo the only way they don't outsell the PS2 at this point is if Nintendo deliberately kills production and refuses to cut the price like what Sony did with the PS4 (and mind you the only reason they did that was b/c of the pandemic)

Pokemon and Prime aren't really gonna sell more systems. Metroid is unfortunately not in any way shape or form a system seller and never has been, and this will be the 6th pokemon on the system so that isn't gonna sell many systems either. Also very possible both these games also come out on the successor as well, further diminishing their impact on Switch.

And at this point I think we can fully expect Nintendo to do your second part - no price cuts. I don't think they will deliberately kill production, but that is essentially what they are doing with no price cuts. If Switch 2 is $400 nobody is going to be buying a Switch OLED at $350, and few people will buy a Switch at $300 so those models might sell total like 1 million after S2 launches. Only the $200 Lite should still be in play with anything but very small numbers after the first half of this year (assuming the successor launches in late Spring).

So it is almost guaranteed Switch won't come close to the post-successor sales that the person mentioned above for some other systems. It really comes down to how many budget shoppers and parents of young kids are going to be buying the Lite over the next couple years. My thinking is Switch will sell under 5 million after successor launches - maybe 3.5-4m Lites and