Looks like Nintendo will likely revise their forecast down again for the FY. I do agree that 150m by the end of 2024 is basically guaranteed (we'll know for sure in about a month). I just hope they are able to even cross 151m, possibly come close-ish to 152m for the end of 2024. I was thinking maybe around 5.70m for Switch in the Holiday 2024 quarter. I'd hope that it is at least 5m for this quarter.

After November is not much down to last year, 150 million shipped would be the worst outcome by december 31. And then lying Ryan would have to "raise" their PS2 numbers again. 165 million incoming?🤣😂

Public: What are the final sales figures for the PS2?

Sony: Ummm whatever the Switch sold + 5 million.

😂

165- 170 million on their 40th anniversary, depending how far the Switch goes.  🤣😂 Lying Ryan can start raising their PS2 numbers again as it seems that Nintendo's November was not down by much compared to 2023.🤣😂       

So, it looks like the Switch, with the upcoming December sales, will most likely be in the 148-149 million sold to consumers.

With Switch 2 all but guaranteed to launch this year - I decided to take a look back at consoles sales from the year their successors launched to the rest of their cycles, thanks to the "Hardware by Date" tool and this is what we got:

From Best to Worst:

PS3 from 2013 onwards: 13,942,355 

DS from 2011 onwards: 13,568,741

3DS from 2017 onwards: 12,153,670

PS4 from 2020 onwards: 11,421,721

X360 from 2013 onwards: 9,108,581

Wii from 2012 onwards: 8,249,476

Average: 11,407,424

The Switch will most likely fall within this range. So based on these calculations, we're looking at a range from 156.25 - 162.94 million LTD sales for the Switch.

If it were to sell the listed average, that would shorten the range to 159.41 - 160.41 million LTD.

The thing to keep in mind here is that these figures are consoles sold to consumers as tracked by VGChartz, not shipped to retailers that Nintendo reports which will always be higher until they discontinue production, and the sold-to-consumers figure eventually catches up. 

At this moment in time, it's honestly 50/50 on whether the Switch catches the PS2.

@PAOerfulone Hopefully they can at least squeak past 161m to definitely surpass the PS2. Really depends on the price of the Switch 2 and how long the Switch is on the market for. I've been thinking we can potentially see Switch 2 priced at $450-500 with the Switch models retaining their current pricing. I could see the Switch not being discontinued until right before Holiday 2027. With those factors in mind, I can see it just narrowly crossing 161m. Really curious to see how the holiday 2024 sales stack up. Hoping for over 5m shipped (essentially meaning the Switch would need ideally 10m shipped from 2025 to whenever it is discontinued).

Maybe something like 5.5m for 2025, 2.75m for 2026 and a little over 1m for 2027 (depending on how much it sells for holiday 2024).

Holiday 2024 will almost certainly be the first holiday season for Switch that is lower than a non-holiday quarter (because it is almost certainly not matching the 6.86m of Jul-Sep 2020 and possibly not matching Apr-Jun 2020). Holiday 2023 just barely beat the Switch's best non-holiday quarter. Going forward, I don't think we will see any 2m quarters for Switch outside of maybe Holiday 2025.

That would be 10 million more after the sucessor is out minimum. So 150+10 would be 160.

In terms of shipped, it's gonna be at 153m by the end of March. I don't see how they wouldn't be able to push another 6m this year with Legends Z-A and Metroid Prime 4, which would get it to 159m by March 2026. Imo the only way they don't outsell the PS2 at this point is if Nintendo deliberately kills production and refuses to cut the price like what Sony did with the PS4 (and mind you the only reason they did that was b/c of the pandemic)

To add to @CheddarPlease 's point:

My calculations are based around the assumption that Switch 2 sill be $400 and Nintendo isn't doing price cuts for their Switch models.
If they release Switch 2 at an even lower price, like $350, or maybe even $300... That would pretty much kill the Switch right there because why spend money on the last gen system when you can just spend on the current gen system at the same price? The 3DS was doing respectively well until Sept 2019 when the Switch Lite launched at the same price, and that was what ultimately killed it.

We all know that Switch won't die imeadetly after the Switch sucessor launch lol. 4-6 million for this year are basically garanteed!! I can even see 1- 2 million in 2026/ 27!