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To add to @CheddarPlease 's point:

My calculations are based around the assumption that Switch 2 sill be $400 and Nintendo isn't doing price cuts for their Switch models.
If they release Switch 2 at an even lower price, like $350, or maybe even $300... That would pretty much kill the Switch right there because why spend money on the last gen system when you can just spend on the current gen system at the same price? The 3DS was doing respectively well until Sept 2019 when the Switch Lite launched at the same price, and that was what ultimately killed it.