@PAOerfulone Hopefully they can at least squeak past 161m to definitely surpass the PS2. Really depends on the price of the Switch 2 and how long the Switch is on the market for. I've been thinking we can potentially see Switch 2 priced at $450-500 with the Switch models retaining their current pricing. I could see the Switch not being discontinued until right before Holiday 2027. With those factors in mind, I can see it just narrowly crossing 161m. Really curious to see how the holiday 2024 sales stack up. Hoping for over 5m shipped (essentially meaning the Switch would need ideally 10m shipped from 2025 to whenever it is discontinued).
Maybe something like 5.5m for 2025, 2.75m for 2026 and a little over 1m for 2027 (depending on how much it sells for holiday 2024).
Holiday 2024 will almost certainly be the first holiday season for Switch that is lower than a non-holiday quarter (because it is almost certainly not matching the 6.86m of Jul-Sep 2020 and possibly not matching Apr-Jun 2020). Holiday 2023 just barely beat the Switch's best non-holiday quarter. Going forward, I don't think we will see any 2m quarters for Switch outside of maybe Holiday 2025.
