If Switch 2 is coming out mid or late 2025 i think its a lock that Switch will surpass Playstation 2 sales, Switch sales will crater WW next year but as long as its the main Nintendo console it will still net higher sales than it would after a new Nintendo console is launched. So if Switch sells 10-11 million this year, it should have a decline of around 40-50 % next year to around 5-6 million sales. After that they would only need 2-3 million more sales to pass the PS2 which i think will happen.

Right now i would not call 160 million guaranteed but IF Nintendo meets their FC, 160 million will be the floor. After recent rumors and the situation we have (november 1 and still no Switch Up announcement) my original march 2025 prediction from 2019 walks on thin ice. So yes IF the Switch Up really takes more time, chances for "nuclear explosion" on the gaming market get more likly...

So Nintendo cut their annual sales forecast from 13.5 to 12.5 million. And given the sales so far this year, it will have to be a HUGE holiday season to meet that figure. The Switch isn't going to breeze past 150 million as I expected, it's going to work hard to get past it.

150 million will be surpassed by the end of this year. I have a hard time believing, Nintendo selling only 3,95 million units during this christmas quater. 4 should be absolutly doable. Passing the PS2? I don't know, but IF the Switch gets only in the ballpark of the DS by march and the Switch Up really launches as late as autum 2025 PS2 will get surpassed. Personally i see 155 million LTD as the absolute floor but only if this FY massivley fails to be met (9 million- 150 million till march) and only 4 million will be sold next year. This alone would put the Switch over the DS. 1 million more in 2026/27 and we would be at 155 million.

Nintendo shipped 6.9 million systems last holiday quarter, so if it's down by 30% this year as seems to be the trend, that's still 4.6 million which would place it over 150m shipped at the end of this year.

How much it sells next year is anybody's guess at this point, as we have to clue when its successor will arrive, but 10m more until its discontinued isn't much of a long shot considering the 3DS sold another 9 million units after it was replaced and it had far less momentum at that point than Switch currently has.

I think it will be at 151-152 million by end of the year.
I believe Switch can sell up to 9 million in 2025 as Switch 2 wont release early in the year and will likely be supply-limited at launch. So it can pass 160 million next year already.

It will keep on selling in Japan in 2026.

160 million lifetime is the absolute floor at this point.

I couldn't find a good place to say this and i'm not the guy who started the thread, but I remembered.

That Nu-13 guy was right about everything: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241681/when-will-the-switch-outsell-the-ps4/5/

I mean, it will be at around 153-154 at the end of March next year with around 12.5 millions. I think it's safe to say Switch will continue to sell around 6-8 millions lifetime after that. It will 100% become the best selling system of all time.

I don't think the Switch will have sales as good as the 3DS's after its successor release, because Switch 2's retrocompatibility. I expect a decrease of 50%~60% in sales compared to this fiscal year's sales result

Indeed, Switch will be over 150m shipped by the end of this calendar year with no problem, as it would have to ship less than 3.96m this holiday quarter for that to happen.

Perhaps a bit overzealous for me but certainly more realistic than some of the predictions I've seen.

On the other hand, Switch's account system and library are fully transferable to its successor, presumably within the same "Switch" family of systems, as opposed to the 3DS becoming a dead-end platform by comparison. 

The clincher for me though, is that the Switch's available library of games is just so many levels of magnitude greater than the 3DS could ever dream of, comprised of some monstrously popular titles.  Combine that with the fact that there will certainly still be a place for a $200 - $300 console from Nintendo and its continued support for the platform into next fiscal with titles like Pokemon Legends and Prime 4.  Then, the prospects of it (at least) matching the 3DS' twilight sales become far more likely.