I admit I don't know much about how chip production works, but I'm unsure if it's as simple as just taking the current Switch lines and turning them onto making Switch 2 instead.

If it is that simple, then I can see them cutting Switch production off very quickly to get the successor off to the best start possible.

On the other hand, if not all their current lines are capable of making the new chip, then it might make sense to keep churning out a small number of Tegra X1s for another 2-3 years so that they can keep a budget option on the market for lower income consumers.

(“vibes-based analysis” taking up 141 pages of comments is wild lol…)

Though just to jump in, how do ppl think Nintendo is planning on using storage space for stockpiling NSW2 units prior to launch? Is it possible these units may occupy all the space which NSW once filled, and thereby leave virtually no NSW units in warehouse? I’m not sure how normal it is for every system to go from production straight to store shelves, not stockpiled or anything.

And what about the manufacturing? Will Nintendo be interested in dividing NSW2 production with NSW? I know they’ve already built that Vietnamese factory which’ll output an estimated >1mil per year.

I like the calculations, but not your dismissal of other concerns. The drop-off rate was based on prior generations sales. Seems the most reasonable bit of data to apply to current predictions. That isn't being a doubter, it's about doing the most rational analysis.

The stuff about price drops is relevant. Not sure why the current PS5, Xbox Series is brought up, because we are discussing prior generations. The price cut matters because most rationale is price cuts sell more consoles. the 3DS being a good example. If historic post successor sales are to be used to inform Switch predictions, then we must consider that it was partly due to the console getting price cuts extending it's sales. It's not about the Switch having a competitive advantage over Sony and MS because it's not a zero sum game, and people considering a PS5 isn't likely to consider prior generations consoles. It's about if the price drop draws in people who wouldn't otherwise considered a Switch. That might be a group who wouldn't buy one at all if it's not cheap enough.

Likewise I also added some consideration for more modern trends with what happened across the current generation, the PS4 simply didn't have any legs after the PS5 launched. Prior sony consoles did. There can be a number of reasons for this, but it's perfectly right to consider that the Nintendo Switch won't be immune to such a trend. Especially given the current state of the global economy means it would make sense for Nintendo to kneecap the Switch like Sony did with their PS4. It's obviously speculation, but it's informed by the trends in consoles seen more recently than when Nintendo phased out their old consoles.

So given all that, a lot depends on two main factors, the number of switches sold this fiscal year and the drop off post successor launch. The first factor is unknown, the Switch has had a big drop in sales this year so far in the first half. The issue though is the drop is larger than prior drop-offs in recent years. But is that partly due to being without a major title to boost sales? Or due to less interest in buying a Switch generally?

That is possibly the biggest factor here, early year sales suggest increased loss of interest in the Switch now which could exceed prior console drop-offs. I can only speculate if that's due to the unusual low game release activity by Nintendo in early 2024 or a more general trend.

However this Holiday period will be huge. Perfect time for a price drop, if it's possible, but will the new '2D' Zelda and Mario and Luigi games sell enough Switches to hit or exceed our projections? I simply don't know.

So my factors that must be considered:

If early year sales are a definite trend in Switch engagement or are just due to a lack of engaging software?

If the end year sales pick up and compensate for this with the improved line-up?

If old drop-off rates for post successor sales apply here?

If the recent kneecapping of the PS4 is relevant to Nintendo's future decision making after a successor launches?

Can and will a price drop be done? How much and what's the impact?

How long will Nintendo support the Switch with quality and attractive games post successor launch?


These are the unknows that will ultimately be key in where the Nintendo Switch ends up. No one here can be sure about any of them. All we can do is look at historical data, current trends and work the impact of the above factors will have.