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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

I admit I don't know much about how chip production works, but I'm unsure if it's as simple as just taking the current Switch lines and turning them onto making Switch 2 instead.

If it is that simple, then I can see them cutting Switch production off very quickly to get the successor off to the best start possible.

On the other hand, if not all their current lines are capable of making the new chip, then it might make sense to keep churning out a small number of Tegra X1s for another 2-3 years so that they can keep a budget option on the market for lower income consumers.



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It’d be a monumental achievement for Nintendo and well deserved as the Switch has a great library and Nintendo have continued to innovate. Having said that I’d be sad to see the PS2 toppled as it is such a legendary console and I’m super nostalgic about it.



curl-6 said:

I admit I don't know much about how chip production works, but I'm unsure if it's as simple as just taking the current Switch lines and turning them onto making Switch 2 instead.

If it is that simple, then I can see them cutting Switch production off very quickly to get the successor off to the best start possible.

On the other hand, if not all their current lines are capable of making the new chip, then it might make sense to keep churning out a small number of Tegra X1s for another 2-3 years so that they can keep a budget option on the market for lower income consumers.

Remember that there was a year when around 30m Switches were produced and it's now down to under 15m. Production lines get added/removed as a company sees fit, so in light of no component shortages (which is what caused all console manufacturers problems in the early 2020s), your line of thought does not matter. If Nintendo wants to produce ~10m Switch consoles and ~15m successor systems during the first transition year, then they can do just that.

@eldanielfire I read your response and I think we are better off saving ourselves the time of a back and forth regarding scenarios that can happen, because we both acknowledge that are optimistic ones, pessimistic ones and a few inbetween. It would be a discussion focused on which ones are more probable than the others, but that's something to be revisited in a month's time or in four months when we've got updates on Nintendo's shipment data.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

firebush03 said:

(“vibes-based analysis” taking up 141 pages of comments is wild lol…)

Though just to jump in, how do ppl think Nintendo is planning on using storage space for stockpiling NSW2 units prior to launch? Is it possible these units may occupy all the space which NSW once filled, and thereby leave virtually no NSW units in warehouse? I’m not sure how normal it is for every system to go from production straight to store shelves, not stockpiled or anything.

And what about the manufacturing? Will Nintendo be interested in dividing NSW2 production with NSW? I know they’ve already built that Vietnamese factory which’ll output an estimated >1mil per year.

I believe they'll reduce the number of Stock Keeping Units (SKU's) of the current Switch.

It was launched with 2 color variations, then 3 (or 4?) color variations of Lite and 2 color variations of the OLED. That's 7 SKU's without counting specials or bundles.

So I can see them reduce the number of color variations, that would make it easier to launch Switch2 in a logistics sense. Perhaps the OG or OLED would be dropped, but I cannot see the Lite being dropped anytime soon without replacement.

It will be interesting to see what model the Vietnam factory will make. Just 1 or 2 or all of them? Perhaps even a budget revision like the Wii Mini to replace the current ones? I do not know.



eldanielfire said:
RolStoppable said:

The thing is that doubters have been wrong every year, not just in the early years. And every year I reiterated why they will be wrong, and every following year people would nod their heads that Switch momentum remained strong for exactly the reasons I had listed. The reasons in question have a strong track record, the same reasons still persist, therefore the doubters will be wrong again.

You run the maths to arrive at your conclusion that 10m extra isn't so sure after March 2025, but you aren't honest about it. You start by acknowledging that up to 154m is possible by March 2025, then you say a drop of 40-60% is rational and then use the low end instead of the full range for your figure by March 2026. It's only because of this that you are able to cap Switch at 160m with "a total of 3m after that." But even that is not enough for you, because you follow it up by naming reasons that it could be even worse than that.

Switch hit 141.32m by March 2024. 151.0m by March 2025 really constitutes the low end because that would mean under 10.0m shipped this fiscal year and everything has to go wrong for this to happen. 154.0m by March 2025 assumes almost everything goes well, but Nintendo still falls short of their 13.5m goal by 0.82m. Since the range of 151-154m is so broad, I'd say pretty much everyone would agree that Switch will land within said range by March 2025, so I too accept your basis. Now I'll do a table based on your 40-60% drop rate and simplify the end of life sales to your suggested 3m regardless of the momentum that Switch would have in any scenario.

If Switch hits ... by March 2025drops 60%drops 50%drops 40%Estimated range for lifetime sales
151.32m155.32m156.32m157.32m158.32-160.32m
152.32m156.72m157.82m158.96m159.72-161.96m
153.32m158.12m159.32m160.52m161.12-163.52m
154.32m159.52m160.82m162.12m162.52-165.12m

The assumption that Switch will sell at most 3m beyond March 2026 puts a serious limit to lifetime sales in any scenario, but even then exactly half of the above paths (6 out of 12) put Switch above the PS2 in the end.

I find your concern about the potential lack of a price cut to be rather meaningless in the current climate, because the same thing applies to the PS5, the Xbox Series and Switch's successor as well. Because what has the price cut for a last gen system always been about? A clear differentiation in cost to newer systems. So why would it matter if Switch doesn't get a price cut when all newer systems won't go down in price either. Different circumstances to previous generations, yet the result remains the same: Switch will have a clear price advantage over newer systems in its late life.

I like the calculations, but not your dismissal of other concerns. The drop-off rate was based on prior generations sales. Seems the most reasonable bit of data to apply to current predictions. That isn't being a doubter, it's about doing the most rational analysis.

The stuff about price drops is relevant. Not sure why the current PS5, Xbox Series is brought up, because we are discussing prior generations. The price cut matters because most rationale is price cuts sell more consoles. the 3DS being a good example. If historic post successor sales are to be used to inform Switch predictions, then we must consider that it was partly due to the console getting price cuts extending it's sales. It's not about the Switch having a competitive advantage over Sony and MS because it's not a zero sum game, and people considering a PS5 isn't likely to consider prior generations consoles. It's about if the price drop draws in people who wouldn't otherwise considered a Switch. That might be a group who wouldn't buy one at all if it's not cheap enough.

Likewise I also added some consideration for more modern trends with what happened across the current generation, the PS4 simply didn't have any legs after the PS5 launched. Prior sony consoles did. There can be a number of reasons for this, but it's perfectly right to consider that the Nintendo Switch won't be immune to such a trend. Especially given the current state of the global economy means it would make sense for Nintendo to kneecap the Switch like Sony did with their PS4. It's obviously speculation, but it's informed by the trends in consoles seen more recently than when Nintendo phased out their old consoles.

So given all that, a lot depends on two main factors, the number of switches sold this fiscal year and the drop off post successor launch. The first factor is unknown, the Switch has had a big drop in sales this year so far in the first half. The issue though is the drop is larger than prior drop-offs in recent years. But is that partly due to being without a major title to boost sales? Or due to less interest in buying a Switch generally?

That is possibly the biggest factor here, early year sales suggest increased loss of interest in the Switch now which could exceed prior console drop-offs. I can only speculate if that's due to the unusual low game release activity by Nintendo in early 2024 or a more general trend.

However this Holiday period will be huge. Perfect time for a price drop, if it's possible, but will the new '2D' Zelda and Mario and Luigi games sell enough Switches to hit or exceed our projections? I simply don't know.

So my factors that must be considered:

If early year sales are a definite trend in Switch engagement or are just due to a lack of engaging software?

If the end year sales pick up and compensate for this with the improved line-up?

If old drop-off rates for post successor sales apply here?

If the recent kneecapping of the PS4 is relevant to Nintendo's future decision making after a successor launches?

Can and will a price drop be done? How much and what's the impact?

How long will Nintendo support the Switch with quality and attractive games post successor launch?


These are the unknows that will ultimately be key in where the Nintendo Switch ends up. No one here can be sure about any of them. All we can do is look at historical data, current trends and work the impact of the above factors will have.

@bolded: Regarding PS4's legs as an example, it is important to remember two things. 

First, the component shortage is the biggest factor as to why it died like it did.  Sony, essentially, had to make a choice because of this and the PS5 took precedence, obviously.  I would bet that Sony would have loved to keep the PS4 around longer as a cheaper alternative to the PS5, particularly with so many cross-gen offerings. 

Secondly, while Sony can remain content with only a high-end offering on the market, Nintendo does not want to lose the "budget" audience, many of which are kids or people just getting into gaming (i.e. people not interested in spending $400+ on gaming).  I doubt that Switch 2 will be under $400 and the Switch remaining on the market to fill this void fits the company's pattern of this, same way the 3DS stayed relevant until the Switch Lite arrived to take its place.



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Yeah if the Switch has a significant future beyond its replacement, it's as a budget product to ensure kids from low income families are still growing up with Nintendo's IPs even if their parents can't afford a Switch 2.

To that end, I expect the OLED will get the axe in relatively short order, (as the premium slot will be filled by the successor) while the Lite, maybe the base, and maybe a new Wii Mini/New 2DS type model are kept around until the Switch 2 Lite can arrive to fill that lower priced niche.



CosmicSex said:

Guys, remember, Nintendo wants to make money. They are not obsessed with selling more than the PS2. Although even I think its really crazy that they went the whole gen without a real pricecut. What I think is that we will finally get the price cut when the Switch replacement ships.

The answer is still no. 



RolStoppable said:
eldanielfire said:

I think it's a fallacy to claim because doubters of Switch sales were wrong in it's early years, that they are wrong now. There was no date that would indicate how well the Switch would do and the pandemic effect was fortunate. We can see the decline in sales of the Switch now and project, both optimistically or conservatively, what future sales will because well as an idea of what console selling games are left. We have historic data to show how consoles fare after a new release as well. Now we have a lot of hard evidence from sales date to estimate the Switch's likely final total.

From that 151-154 units sold by March 2025 looks most likely ballpark. We suspect the Switch will have a 3 year life left once the Successor is launched. We can ascertain that Nintendo won't do a Sony and knee cap production straight after and so a likely drop of 40-60% in sales is a rational prediction. That makes it potentially 156/157 units sold by March 2026 minimum. Then a total of 3 million more after that. But, corporate business means Nintendo won't push the Switch hard if they think it would bite in the Switch successor sales as well and thus we assume they won't knee cap the Switch. Rumours were the Switch successor was put back a year due to the current global climate. It's possible there is even less games Nintendo have in the bag to support the post-successor era now. 


The fault in those estimates is that previous data of post success or sales has a price drop involved. Given recent console trends it seems the possibility of a price drop is more and more unlikely due to how supply chains of modern components work now. It's possible Nintendo might follow Sony and kneecap the Switch to support the successor. We'll see. The idea of a guaranteed 10 million extra isn't so sure in the current climate. 

The thing is that doubters have been wrong every year, not just in the early years. And every year I reiterated why they will be wrong, and every following year people would nod their heads that Switch momentum remained strong for exactly the reasons I had listed. The reasons in question have a strong track record, the same reasons still persist, therefore the doubters will be wrong again.

You run the maths to arrive at your conclusion that 10m extra isn't so sure after March 2025, but you aren't honest about it. You start by acknowledging that up to 154m is possible by March 2025, then you say a drop of 40-60% is rational and then use the low end instead of the full range for your figure by March 2026. It's only because of this that you are able to cap Switch at 160m with "a total of 3m after that." But even that is not enough for you, because you follow it up by naming reasons that it could be even worse than that.

Switch hit 141.32m by March 2024. 151.0m by March 2025 really constitutes the low end because that would mean under 10.0m shipped this fiscal year and everything has to go wrong for this to happen. 154.0m by March 2025 assumes almost everything goes well, but Nintendo still falls short of their 13.5m goal by 0.82m. Since the range of 151-154m is so broad, I'd say pretty much everyone would agree that Switch will land within said range by March 2025, so I too accept your basis. Now I'll do a table based on your 40-60% drop rate and simplify the end of life sales to your suggested 3m regardless of the momentum that Switch would have in any scenario.

If Switch hits ... by March 2025drops 60%drops 50%drops 40%Estimated range for lifetime sales
151.32m155.32m156.32m157.32m158.32-160.32m
152.32m156.72m157.82m158.96m159.72-161.96m
153.32m158.12m159.32m160.52m161.12-163.52m
154.32m159.52m160.82m162.12m162.52-165.12m

The assumption that Switch will sell at most 3m beyond March 2026 puts a serious limit to lifetime sales in any scenario, but even then exactly half of the above paths (6 out of 12) put Switch above the PS2 in the end.

I find your concern about the potential lack of a price cut to be rather meaningless in the current climate, because the same thing applies to the PS5, the Xbox Series and Switch's successor as well. Because what has the price cut for a last gen system always been about? A clear differentiation in cost to newer systems. So why would it matter if Switch doesn't get a price cut when all newer systems won't go down in price either. Different circumstances to previous generations, yet the result remains the same: Switch will have a clear price advantage over newer systems in its late life.

by the end of September -> 143.40M
by the end of October-> 144.1M
by the end of November ->145.1M
by the end of December -> 147.1M
by the end of March 2025 -> 148.9M


That's how I see it going, using VGC estimatives at least



eldanielfire said:
RolStoppable said:

The thing is that doubters have been wrong every year, not just in the early years. And every year I reiterated why they will be wrong, and every following year people would nod their heads that Switch momentum remained strong for exactly the reasons I had listed. The reasons in question have a strong track record, the same reasons still persist, therefore the doubters will be wrong again.

You run the maths to arrive at your conclusion that 10m extra isn't so sure after March 2025, but you aren't honest about it. You start by acknowledging that up to 154m is possible by March 2025, then you say a drop of 40-60% is rational and then use the low end instead of the full range for your figure by March 2026. It's only because of this that you are able to cap Switch at 160m with "a total of 3m after that." But even that is not enough for you, because you follow it up by naming reasons that it could be even worse than that.

Switch hit 141.32m by March 2024. 151.0m by March 2025 really constitutes the low end because that would mean under 10.0m shipped this fiscal year and everything has to go wrong for this to happen. 154.0m by March 2025 assumes almost everything goes well, but Nintendo still falls short of their 13.5m goal by 0.82m. Since the range of 151-154m is so broad, I'd say pretty much everyone would agree that Switch will land within said range by March 2025, so I too accept your basis. Now I'll do a table based on your 40-60% drop rate and simplify the end of life sales to your suggested 3m regardless of the momentum that Switch would have in any scenario.

If Switch hits ... by March 2025 drops 60% drops 50% drops 40% Estimated range for lifetime sales
151.32m 155.32m 156.32m 157.32m 158.32-160.32m
152.32m 156.72m 157.82m 158.96m 159.72-161.96m
153.32m 158.12m 159.32m 160.52m 161.12-163.52m
154.32m 159.52m 160.82m 162.12m 162.52-165.12m

The assumption that Switch will sell at most 3m beyond March 2026 puts a serious limit to lifetime sales in any scenario, but even then exactly half of the above paths (6 out of 12) put Switch above the PS2 in the end.

I find your concern about the potential lack of a price cut to be rather meaningless in the current climate, because the same thing applies to the PS5, the Xbox Series and Switch's successor as well. Because what has the price cut for a last gen system always been about? A clear differentiation in cost to newer systems. So why would it matter if Switch doesn't get a price cut when all newer systems won't go down in price either. Different circumstances to previous generations, yet the result remains the same: Switch will have a clear price advantage over newer systems in its late life.

I like the calculations, but not your dismissal of other concerns. The drop-off rate was based on prior generations sales. Seems the most reasonable bit of data to apply to current predictions. That isn't being a doubter, it's about doing the most rational analysis.

The stuff about price drops is relevant. Not sure why the current PS5, Xbox Series is brought up, because we are discussing prior generations. The price cut matters because most rationale is price cuts sell more consoles. the 3DS being a good example. If historic post successor sales are to be used to inform Switch predictions, then we must consider that it was partly due to the console getting price cuts extending it's sales. It's not about the Switch having a competitive advantage over Sony and MS because it's not a zero sum game, and people considering a PS5 isn't likely to consider prior generations consoles. It's about if the price drop draws in people who wouldn't otherwise considered a Switch. That might be a group who wouldn't buy one at all if it's not cheap enough.

Likewise I also added some consideration for more modern trends with what happened across the current generation, the PS4 simply didn't have any legs after the PS5 launched. Prior sony consoles did. There can be a number of reasons for this, but it's perfectly right to consider that the Nintendo Switch won't be immune to such a trend. Especially given the current state of the global economy means it would make sense for Nintendo to kneecap the Switch like Sony did with their PS4. It's obviously speculation, but it's informed by the trends in consoles seen more recently than when Nintendo phased out their old consoles.

So given all that, a lot depends on two main factors, the number of switches sold this fiscal year and the drop off post successor launch. The first factor is unknown, the Switch has had a big drop in sales this year so far in the first half. The issue though is the drop is larger than prior drop-offs in recent years. But is that partly due to being without a major title to boost sales? Or due to less interest in buying a Switch generally?

That is possibly the biggest factor here, early year sales suggest increased loss of interest in the Switch now which could exceed prior console drop-offs. I can only speculate if that's due to the unusual low game release activity by Nintendo in early 2024 or a more general trend.

However this Holiday period will be huge. Perfect time for a price drop, if it's possible, but will the new '2D' Zelda and Mario and Luigi games sell enough Switches to hit or exceed our projections? I simply don't know.

So my factors that must be considered:

If early year sales are a definite trend in Switch engagement or are just due to a lack of engaging software?

If the end year sales pick up and compensate for this with the improved line-up?

If old drop-off rates for post successor sales apply here?

If the recent kneecapping of the PS4 is relevant to Nintendo's future decision making after a successor launches?

Can and will a price drop be done? How much and what's the impact?

How long will Nintendo support the Switch with quality and attractive games post successor launch?


These are the unknows that will ultimately be key in where the Nintendo Switch ends up. No one here can be sure about any of them. All we can do is look at historical data, current trends and work the impact of the above factors will have.

You're too invested in the Sony paradigm as a metric.

How about we try the Nintendo paradigm instead? Other than possibly Metroid, is there any major Switch 2 IP that couldn't run on the original Switch at 720p if it's at 4k on Switch 2?

If Nintendo makes or buys a new killer exclusive IP (in the same tier as Mario Bros, Tetris, Kart, Smash, Minecraft, Fortnite) will people be willing to save $200 to play a lower res gimped version?

Gimmicks are great at giving a system a second wind and the best gimmick is AAA software. If the initial Switch 2 SKU can't beat Lite's portability then don't be surprised if multiplat games designed around portability still perform better on the Lite.

Last edited by Pyro as Bill - on 13 October 2024

Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

If delay rumours are true and Switch 2 was supposed to be out by now or this holiday then it's also possible there's a bunch of gimped AAA Switch 2 games waiting in the wings that should be extending Switch's lifecycle.

Last edited by Pyro as Bill - on 13 October 2024

Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!