The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[archbrix]

eldanielfire said:

RolStoppable said:

The thing is that doubters have been wrong every year, not just in the early years. And every year I reiterated why they will be wrong, and every following year people would nod their heads that Switch momentum remained strong for exactly the reasons I had listed. The reasons in question have a strong track record, the same reasons still persist, therefore the doubters will be wrong again.

You run the maths to arrive at your conclusion that 10m extra isn't so sure after March 2025, but you aren't honest about it. You start by acknowledging that up to 154m is possible by March 2025, then you say a drop of 40-60% is rational and then use the low end instead of the full range for your figure by March 2026. It's only because of this that you are able to cap Switch at 160m with "a total of 3m after that." But even that is not enough for you, because you follow it up by naming reasons that it could be even worse than that.

Switch hit 141.32m by March 2024. 151.0m by March 2025 really constitutes the low end because that would mean under 10.0m shipped this fiscal year and everything has to go wrong for this to happen. 154.0m by March 2025 assumes almost everything goes well, but Nintendo still falls short of their 13.5m goal by 0.82m. Since the range of 151-154m is so broad, I'd say pretty much everyone would agree that Switch will land within said range by March 2025, so I too accept your basis. Now I'll do a table based on your 40-60% drop rate and simplify the end of life sales to your suggested 3m regardless of the momentum that Switch would have in any scenario.

If Switch hits ... by March 2025	drops 60%	drops 50%	drops 40%	Estimated range for lifetime sales
151.32m	155.32m	156.32m	157.32m	158.32-160.32m
152.32m	156.72m	157.82m	158.96m	159.72-161.96m
153.32m	158.12m	159.32m	160.52m	161.12-163.52m
154.32m	159.52m	160.82m	162.12m	162.52-165.12m

The assumption that Switch will sell at most 3m beyond March 2026 puts a serious limit to lifetime sales in any scenario, but even then exactly half of the above paths (6 out of 12) put Switch above the PS2 in the end.

I find your concern about the potential lack of a price cut to be rather meaningless in the current climate, because the same thing applies to the PS5, the Xbox Series and Switch's successor as well. Because what has the price cut for a last gen system always been about? A clear differentiation in cost to newer systems. So why would it matter if Switch doesn't get a price cut when all newer systems won't go down in price either. Different circumstances to previous generations, yet the result remains the same: Switch will have a clear price advantage over newer systems in its late life.

I like the calculations, but not your dismissal of other concerns. The drop-off rate was based on prior generations sales. Seems the most reasonable bit of data to apply to current predictions. That isn't being a doubter, it's about doing the most rational analysis.

The stuff about price drops is relevant. Not sure why the current PS5, Xbox Series is brought up, because we are discussing prior generations. The price cut matters because most rationale is price cuts sell more consoles. the 3DS being a good example. If historic post successor sales are to be used to inform Switch predictions, then we must consider that it was partly due to the console getting price cuts extending it's sales. It's not about the Switch having a competitive advantage over Sony and MS because it's not a zero sum game, and people considering a PS5 isn't likely to consider prior generations consoles. It's about if the price drop draws in people who wouldn't otherwise considered a Switch. That might be a group who wouldn't buy one at all if it's not cheap enough.

Likewise I also added some consideration for more modern trends with what happened across the current generation, the PS4 simply didn't have any legs after the PS5 launched. Prior sony consoles did. There can be a number of reasons for this, but it's perfectly right to consider that the Nintendo Switch won't be immune to such a trend. Especially given the current state of the global economy means it would make sense for Nintendo to kneecap the Switch like Sony did with their PS4. It's obviously speculation, but it's informed by the trends in consoles seen more recently than when Nintendo phased out their old consoles.

So given all that, a lot depends on two main factors, the number of switches sold this fiscal year and the drop off post successor launch. The first factor is unknown, the Switch has had a big drop in sales this year so far in the first half. The issue though is the drop is larger than prior drop-offs in recent years. But is that partly due to being without a major title to boost sales? Or due to less interest in buying a Switch generally?

That is possibly the biggest factor here, early year sales suggest increased loss of interest in the Switch now which could exceed prior console drop-offs. I can only speculate if that's due to the unusual low game release activity by Nintendo in early 2024 or a more general trend.

However this Holiday period will be huge. Perfect time for a price drop, if it's possible, but will the new '2D' Zelda and Mario and Luigi games sell enough Switches to hit or exceed our projections? I simply don't know.

So my factors that must be considered:

If early year sales are a definite trend in Switch engagement or are just due to a lack of engaging software?

If the end year sales pick up and compensate for this with the improved line-up?

If old drop-off rates for post successor sales apply here?

If the recent kneecapping of the PS4 is relevant to Nintendo's future decision making after a successor launches?

Can and will a price drop be done? How much and what's the impact?

How long will Nintendo support the Switch with quality and attractive games post successor launch?


These are the unknows that will ultimately be key in where the Nintendo Switch ends up. No one here can be sure about any of them. All we can do is look at historical data, current trends and work the impact of the above factors will have.

@bolded: Regarding PS4's legs as an example, it is important to remember two things. 

First, the component shortage is the biggest factor as to why it died like it did.  Sony, essentially, had to make a choice because of this and the PS5 took precedence, obviously.  I would bet that Sony would have loved to keep the PS4 around longer as a cheaper alternative to the PS5, particularly with so many cross-gen offerings. 

Secondly, while Sony can remain content with only a high-end offering on the market, Nintendo does not want to lose the "budget" audience, many of which are kids or people just getting into gaming (i.e. people not interested in spending $400+ on gaming).  I doubt that Switch 2 will be under $400 and the Switch remaining on the market to fill this void fits the company's pattern of this, same way the 3DS stayed relevant until the Switch Lite arrived to take its place.