Shipment wise the Switch has topped the DS. Our updated sell-through estimates will have it topping the DS in February or March depending on how sales hold up. 

As far as 160M IMO it is not likely, but possible. We will have a better idea in 3 months once Nintendo releases their forecast for the next fiscal year.

We still have Switch1 first party games announced for 2026. They'll certainly keep it in production beyond that. They might cut the number of SKU's. Also Switch1 still very much a darling for smaller games like indy games in the foreseeable future. I don't see it ending production soon, especially the Switch Lite.

At this point if Nintendo wants the Switch 1 to top 160M they can do it. But the Switch 2 is their main focus now. 

The one to keep looking at is the how the Switch Lite will go going forward. It has the lowest decline of the 3 models. And it makes the most business sense to continue. (highest profit margin & low cost market acquisition)

Q1-Q3,2025 vs. Q1-Q,32026

Switch 2.74m vs. 0.98m = 64% Decline

OLED 5.07m vs. 1.48m = 71% Decline

Lite 1.73m vs. 0.79m = 54% Decline

This topic is interesting because the ultimate conclusion my take years to resolve. If shipments continue to drop at a 70% rate year over year that last 2 million or so is gonna take is well into the PS6 gen.

We will be only 3.5 million away by March 31, 2025 !

158.2 million by January 2027
159.5 million by March 2028
160 million by July 2028

It's too late for that to matter I think. It could make a difference if they starting pushing the Switch 1 again but they of course want the Switch 2 install base to get huge as fast as reasonably possible so a Switch 2 sale matters way more to them than a late Switch 1 sale.

if the rumors of a possible Switch 2 price hike are true - Which wouldn’t happen until the next fiscal year if I had to guess - Then they’ll keep supporting and producing Switch 1 (Especially the Lite model) so they still have that affordable option that’s easier for newer customers who are more cautious of their funds have a viable option.

That’s what could get Switch 1 across that 160m line is if they use it as a safety net in case Switch 2 momentum stalls due to a (rumored) price hike.

Done 

Well in order to acheive that by March 31, 2025 we would require time travel so I'm gonna have to say that is unlikely.

If you mean by March 31, 2026... wouldn't that require them to ship like 1 million in the next two months?  I think that is more probable than time travel but I think that is also unlikely.  I think we are looking at something like 4.4 to 4.5 million. Lets be super generous and say 4 million. 

How about:

156.5 million by January 2027

157.5 million by March 2028

157.7 millio by July 2028

To get figure higher than that, the YoY dropoff is gonna have be be less than 50% going forward which seems very unlikely. A sure fire way to boost this would simply be to drop the price.  Otherwise don't expect 160 until sometime in 2030 at the earliest.  Funny enough if that is the case it would not only match the PS2, but would take almost the exact amount of time to do so which would actually be a very cool result.