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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict the sales of the announced or expected Microsoft/Sony big boy "exclusives" (Console up to gen 9 + PC)

PotentHerbs on 25 January 2022

Guess I'll be "bold" here but I predict Spiderman 2 will outsell every PS5/ Series X exclusive on this list.

We already seen a spinoff in Miles Morales, a game that is a year old, outsell Call of Duty: Vanguard on the NA PSN digital charts for December 2021. I think the only games that will outsell Spiderman 2 this generation will be GTA6 and Mario Kart 9.



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Kakadu18 on 25 January 2022

Spider-Man 2 will top 25mil at least.
Ghost of Tsushima will sell at least 15mil.
Gran Turismo 7 could bring the franchise to previous hights if it's really good, so up to 15mil.
Were there any further numbers for HZD past 10mil? Do we know where it's at now?
HFW will at least sell 15mil, maybe 20mil.
God of War 2018 is like at 20mil now, it can still sell some. 25mil max.
God of War Ragnarok will sell similarly I think.

Difficult to predict most of the Microsoft games because of Gamepass.
I'll just gonna say Starfield and TES VI will both top 30mil players at some point.

As for the bonus, I think PLA is likely to reach 20mil considering the good wom so far. BotW will top 30mil and BotW2 at least 20mil.



Dulfite on 26 January 2022

Well, not sure who will win the sales totals of the big boys, but I'm certain Nintendo will win the profit/revenue as they won't have to put their games on sale or permanent price reduction 3-6 months after launch to keep them going like other companies do. We still don't have Select games from Nintendo 4.5 years after launch, so let the profits keep coming!

Plus, MS will be limited by how many play it on Gamepass instead of buying so this isn't exactly fair.



Slownenberg on 26 January 2022

I'll do the bonus part.

MK8D will pass 50 million
AC:NH will pass 40 million
BotW will pass 30 million
BotW2 will pass 20 million
Pokemon Legends Arceus will do 18-19 million, maybe hit 20mil.



Dulfite on 26 January 2022
Kyuu said:
Dulfite said:

Well, not sure who will win the sales totals of the big boys, but I'm certain Nintendo will win the profit/revenue as they won't have to put their games on sale or permanent price reduction 3-6 months after launch to keep them going like other companies do. We still don't have Select games from Nintendo 4.5 years after launch, so let the profits keep coming!

Plus, MS will be limited by how many play it on Gamepass instead of buying so this isn't exactly fair.

I agree on Game Pass hurting sales overall (especially for popular/established games) but Phil Spencer and his faithful followers beg to differ:

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2018-11-13-phil-spencer-game-pass-leads-to-more-game-sales

You know what else hurts sales? Sony new pricing policies. Their games are much more expensive in EU than Microsoft's, and nearly twice as expensive if bought digitially (GP gives you a digital discount).

GP is the bread and butter of Series XS as far as value and hardware sales, so while it should hurt software sales directly, it ultimately increases them via the combination of a larger hardware install base and word of mouth. The increase is in comparison to a GamePass-less Series XS with a smaller install base. Then again, now that MS finally has a strong roster of exclusives, GP is no longer required to sell over 70 million consoles lifetime. I'm curious to see how MS will handle CoD and TES6 when the effects of Game Pass are made clearer.

Yeah I'm a firm believer in the subscription model for companies. That is the future and that is how you expand the market, rather than retain it at it's current cap (~300 million consoles per gen).



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PotentHerbs on 26 January 2022
Kyuu said:

Yeah the first prediction isn't exactly bold. A non-annual CoD exclusive may outsell it though, especially if not included day 1 or permanently on Game Pass.

The 2nd is pretty bold. Nintendo are on a league of their own I'd never doubt them again. MK9 is pretty much guaranteed to outsell it. BotW2 and who knows what else have a good shot too lol. I also expect at least a couple of major 3rd party games to perform around its level. Another one that has a shot is Spider-Man 3, although I think it will decline until the enhanced edition is out on PS6 and later PC.

I'm real optimistic about Spiderman 2 lol. I think it will be Sony's first 30+ Million first party title.

One factor that might be overlooked is Sony's multimedia approach to IP's, which has shown to increase sales if the adaptation is good, similar to how Spiderman: No Way Home boosted Miles Morales past Call of Duty: Vanguard on the PSN NA charts back in December, or how The Witcher 3 saw a boost in sales when the Netflix adaptation released. We could see something similar happen with The Last of Us Remake and Factions 2 releasing around the same time as the HBO adaptation.



Jumpin on 26 January 2022
Slownenberg said:

I'll do the bonus part.

MK8D will pass 50 million
AC:NH will pass 40 million
BotW will pass 30 million
BotW2 will pass 20 million
Pokemon Legends Arceus will do 18-19 million, maybe hit 20mil.

Damn! The thing is, this doesn’t even look like a stretch at the rate things are going. Mario Kart Wii sold around 180,000 in FY2021, and around 5.4 million units since the launch of the Wii U in 2012, just to show its longevity. 



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Torpoleon on 27 January 2022

@Jumpin And MK8DX will reach those sales before a successor is even announced, most likely.