This games seems to have a lot of potential and even if it sucks, would like it to be successful.  The reason I want this game to be successful just because game freak is finally taking more risk for a Pokemon game.  They are moving away from their comfort zone and I hope they would do it more often.  How successful will this game be? How many units it will sell? Will it outsell a lot of mainline pokemon game? These are the mainline pokemon games (excluding remakes, 3rd entry, and direct sequel).

The game has to sell at least 15.65 million to outsell the lowest mainline Pokemon game (Black and White).  I think it is a pretty easy number to beat. But how many Games you think it will beat out of 8 generations of mainline Pokemon games?

Ill go with a wild guess and say 5. It will probably sell 20M. Maybe. Who knows?

Fun poll idea.

I’m not sure if it’ll outsell any of them though. To be honest this game is a wildcard. On one hand it’s “just” a spinoff while on the other it’s finally a 3D open world Pokemon game. So it could be the biggest thing ever or it could be a bog whatever like the other spinoffs. I think many we’ll be surprised either way.

As for the poll, let’s not be too pessimistic, also because things on Switch just sell a lot in general, I’ll think it’ll get to about 16, beating one mainline game.

What I like about this game, and what I think will slow sales down, if only a little, is that there is only 1 version of the game

Past entries had 2, sometimes up to 4 total versions to up the sales and a good handful of people, myself included would by both versions.
I think it will sell between 10 and 15 million lifetime, and that's partly because it just seems a bit underwhelming for a late gen switch game, and I've seen quite a few people say they aren't interested in it

I agree with this guy.

Great sales for the first of its kind, but can't outsell the bread and butter.

The 3DS entry's numbers are not up to date. X/Y sold 16.58mil and Sun/Moon sold 16.27mil, more than Ruby/Sapphire, so your poll is wrong too.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/3ds.html

It depends on word of mouth. If it's really good and feels fresh, I can see it top 20mil. If it's not really good, then it maybe will sell below even BW.

Unless Sword and Shield has really expanded the market for the series I’m not too sure it’s going to match any of the mainline instalments. I think 10 million would be a optimistic estimate as the series spin-offs, even the most popular ones, don’t come close in sales numbers.

Also, if you look at the marketing, very little has been given away about the general gameplay beyond a few teaser shots. I’m trying to force myself to hold out and wait to see the reaction because I feel it’s going to turn out as an overhyped and underwhelming disappointment (hope I’m wrong about that though).

Those figures won’t include games like Yellow, Crystal, Emerald etc, which are listed separately.

The issue is....well it is such an odd departure from how games have been before, and in an odd release window in January, Still an odd window IMO, especially as the set up for it doesn't feel like 'pushed back' as it was confirmed for that in May. The fandom reaction is going to be the deciding factor IMO