For a system to still be selling this fast well into its 5th year, during a chip shortage no less, is really something special. Nintendo's really struck gold with the Switch, and I hope they give it the long lifespan it deserves to live out its full potential. PS4 and Gameboy should be passed well before the end of 2022 at this rate.

With adjustments, this is also the week Xbox Series hit 11 million and passed the Game Gear.

PS5 has now also passed the Vita.

The PS5 and XBox XS bottlenecks are real. They sell every unit they make allright, but they can't manufacture them fast enough...

Yeah I think that’s a good time too, gives them all of 2022 to focus on big software then sometime in Spring 2023 they can announce it for a November release.

That way they don’t have a lull period, especially during the holidays, where people hold off on buying Switch and wait for Switch 2.

I'd be fine with that, honestly.

2022 is simply too soon and would be a bad move, but March 2023 onwards could work well. Give the Switch a nice solid 6 years, it deserves as much considering the Wii got that long while selling less and peaking much sooner.

It would also allow the Switch to go out with one last banger year to itself. Let it live up to its potential in both games and sales, then move on to the next one.

I've been wanting 2023 for a while. I initially thought Spring, 6 years after Switch launched March 2017, but pushing back to fall would be fine. People argue against 2023 because Nintendo says they are still in the mid life of Switch, but just because the Switch will still be around and selling in some form doesn't mean the successor won't also be out. Plenty of replacement consoles also had their predecessors out selling new games simultaneously.

I feel like 2023 is too soon for even an announcement. A lot of games coming to Switch in 2022 are sequels to 2017 games, which means it has taken those teams roughly 5 years (of course covid has had an obvious impact, but still). I feel like 2023 would be possible if covid wasn't a factor (essentially, I feel like a lot of games releasing in 2022 would've been out this year, so everything feel pushed back a year). I just don't want Nintendo to rush out a successor. 2023 could still be a big year sales wise for Switch, so I feel they'd be better positioned waiting for Holiday 2024.

Also, I feel like Switch should last at least 7 years before a successor releases. Considering the Wii lasted 6 years despite peaking much earlier and clearly having lower lifetime sales, I feel like lasting at least a year longer is reasonable for the Switch.

Based on current sales trends:

Switch should pass PS1 and the Wii in very early Q1 2022

PS5 should pass GC and Xbox in late Q1/early Q2

X|S should pass Wii U very early in Q1, possibly pass GC and Xbox in late Q3 or Q4 2022


Does that sound about right?

When I think about all the stuff that needs to be done to achieve a successful launch I think even a target like March 2024 is much easier to achieve than November 2023.

I think my personal estimates for how quickly the PS5 and Xbox Series will advance up the charts are about three weeks slower than yours.  I don’t think supply will be there to achieve those sold through targets.

Well if VGC is anywhere close to the actual sales the Wii was passed last week and the PS1 should be passed this week. Since shipments will be a bit higher Nintendo's numbers in their next report should be higher than both too.