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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS2 shipments over 158.6m, breaking down missing fiscal data.

but whats the position based on revenue at that 99 euro dvdplayer pricepoint?



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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kirby007 said:

but whats the position based on revenue at that 99 euro dvdplayer pricepoint?

Funny thing, I got a General Electric DVD player in 2001 for $99 whilst the PS2 was $299.

Yet people kept saying PS2 was the cheapest DVD available.

Things huh!!



kazuyamishima said:
kirby007 said:

but whats the position based on revenue at that 99 euro dvdplayer pricepoint?

Funny thing, I got a General Electric DVD player in 2001 for $99 whilst the PS2 was $299.

Yet people kept saying PS2 was the cheapest DVD available.

Things huh!!

So a year after launch heh



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Zippy6 said:

...

Sony switched from reporting manufactured units to units sold to retailers as of 2007. So if you look at 2007 or 2008's FY report it will contradict previous reports with slightly different numbers. But I've looked into all the fiscal reports again and yes the widely accepted 155m for March 31st 2012 doesn't seem possible and this 157.3m figure looks correct.

This is what we have from Sony:

Manufactured

FY99 - 1.41m (Source)
FY00 - 9.2m (10.61m total) (Source)
FY01 - 18.07m (28.68m total) (Source)
FY02 - 22.52m (51.2m total) (Source)
FY03 - 20.1m (71.3m total) (Source)
FY04 - 16.17m (87.47m total) (Source)
FY05 - 16.22m (103.69m total) (Source)
FY06 - 14.2m (117.89m total) (Source)

Then in the 2007 Fiscal Year report we get this line "Beginning with Q1 FY07, the method of reporting hardware and software unit sales has been changed from production shipments to recorded sales" By this they mean instead of units produced they are reporting sell-in to retailers. Note FY06 figures change in this report:

Sell-In

FY06 - 14.71m (Source)

this extra 0.51m from the above figure will be units manufactured in FY05 but not shipped till FY06 and thus added to FY06 with this new method of reporting If we keep the older figure of 14.2m this stops units being duplicated by the same consoles being included in FY05 manufacturing and FY06 shipping. It's unlikely that any units manufactured in FY05 were not sold to retailers until FY07 so getting rid of this extra 0.51m fixes the problem, now we can continue the total.

FY07 - 13.7m (131.59m total) (Source)
FY08 - 7.91m (139.49m total) (Source)
FY09 - 7.3m (146.8m total) (Source)
FY10 - 6.4m (153.2m total) (Source)
FY11 - 4.1m (157.3m total) (Source)

So after the extra 0.51m generated by duplicated units in the switch-over of reporting methods has been taken away we still get to 157.3m shipped by March 31st 2012.

...

I think this entire thread is based on the faulty premise from this post. 0.51m is almost certainly not the discrepancy between production shipments and sell-in, and it's impossible for us to know what the true discrepancy is without more info from Sony.

Let me give an example. We have two sets of data for the same console: One is production shipments and the other is sell-in. Cumulative sell-in should always be lower than cumulative production shipments, although in an ideal world they would be equal once a console is discontinued and all remaining stock is sold to retailers.

Consider the sales/production of this fictional console:

FY Sell-in Cumulative Sell-in FY Production
Cumulative Production
FY1 3.5 3.5 5.5 5.5
FY2 10.0 13.5 11.0 16.5
FY3 14.5 28.0 15.0 31.5
FY4 16.0 44.0 15.5 47.0
FY5 14.5 58.5 14.0 61.0
FY6 10.0 68.5 9.5 70.5
FY7 5.5 74.0 5.0 75.5
FY8 2.0 76.0 1.5 77.0
FY9 1.0 77.0 0.0 77.0

Now let's say that from FY1-4, the manufacturer only shared the production shipments, in FY5, they shared both production and sell-in, and from FY6 onward, they only shared sell-in. If we tried to use your solution to figure out the actual final sales, that would give us this:

FY Sell-in FY Production Cumulative Production FY Zippy6
Cumulative Zippy6
FY1 - 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
FY2 - 11.0 16.5 11.0 16.5
FY3 - 15.0 31.5 15.0 31.5
FY4 - 15.5 47.0 15.5 47.0
FY5 14.5 14.0 61.0 14.0 61.0
FY6 10.0 - - 10.0 71.0
FY7 5.5 - - 5.5 76.5
FY8 2.0 - - 2.0 78.5
FY9 1.0 - - 1.0 79.5

See what happened here? You're combining the two different sets of data and then subtracting 0.5m because of the difference in FY5 (so we're using 14.0m instead of 14.5m in FY5), but that's functionally the same as "use production shipments until FY5, and then add on the annual sell-in numbers from FY6 onward". This gives us lifetime sales that are 2.5m too high.

What would a realistic difference be? We can look at the PS3's sales for clues. It launched in the same year that Sony made the switch in their hardware reporting, so we know what the exact gap was between cumulative production and cumulative sell-in as of March 31st, 2007:

PS3 Production Shipments: https://web.archive.org/web/20120609161633/http://scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps3_e.html

PS3 Sell-in: https://web.archive.org/web/20140702143333/www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps3_sale_e.html

Production was 5.5 million while sell-in was 3.5 million, so the gap was 2 million. PS3 then had sell-in of 9.1 million in the next fiscal year (FY2007). In that same year, PS2 had sell-in of 13.7 million, so it's possible that PS2 had an even larger gap than 2 million at that point because it was selling at a faster rate than PS3.

Last edited by StarDoor - on 12 December 2021

If I understand this correctly, then it also means that the XBox360 may have outsold the PS3. Whatever systems the PS2 may be "shortchanged" on were counted toward the PS3 instead.



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StarDoor said:

*long post snip*

You're right there is a problem with the figures which is this: The FY05 manufactured units being duplicated in FY06 shipping figures has been accounted for but the FY06 manufactured units being duplicated in FY07 shipping numbers is not, so the true PS2 shipments as of March 31st 2012 is 157.3m MINUS however many FY07 shipments were manufactured in FY06.

Secondly "I think this entire thread is based on the faulty premise from this post." is not the case at all, the thread and OP don't even use the 157.3m as of March 31st 2012 figure to show PS2 must be over 158.6m. It uses a 155.1m as of March 31st 2012 figure, the 157.3m figure was mentioned in an edit in the OP and was not used for the whole post.

Last edited by Zippy6 - on 13 December 2021

The_Liquid_Laser said:

If I understand this correctly, then it also means that the XBox360 may have outsold the PS3. Whatever systems the PS2 may be "shortchanged" on were counted toward the PS3 instead.

I think it's less being "shortchanged" and PS2 numbers being given to PS3 and more PS2 numbers were just never looked at because they were obscured and Sony never gave us a total. A lot of people just accept "155m lifetime".

After all the 80m Nov 2nd 2013 PS3 figure is given after the PS2 was discontinued, so as of that date PS3 shipped 80m and the PS2 didn't exist anymore so PS2 couldn't be taking away from PS3.

The basis of the 158.6m to 161.9m is the minimum and maximum PS2 could have shipped with PS3 still reaching 80m as of November 2nd. The only reason there is a range is because we don't know how many of the 3.3m PS3's shipped in the 2013 holiday quarter were shipped before Nov 2nd and how many were shipped after. Thus the 3.3m range (all 3.3m before nov 2nd, all 3.3m after nov 2nd).

Trying to break down again:

PS3 shipped 63.9m by March 31st 2012

PS2+PS3 combined ships 16.5m in the year ending March 31st 2013

PS3 ships 3.1m from April 1st 2013 to September 30th 2013

PS3 shipped 80m by Nov 2nd 2013

If PS3 had accounted for 13m of the 16.5m combined figure then PS3 would already have reached 80m by September 30th 2013. So at an absolute minimum where PS3 ships no units between September 30th and Nov 2nd, the PS2 ships 3.5m in the missing year of data, add that on to the widely accepted 155.1m as of March 31st 2012 and the lifetime PS2 is brought up to a minimum of 158.6m.

I've not looked into PS3 shipment numbers to see what the potential lifetime range is, as again this is a console we never got lifetime figures for, but it's not getting units from the PS2 unless someone completely ignored the 80m Nov 2nd figure as the PS2 didn't exist anymore when we got this final clear figure.

Last edited by Zippy6 - on 13 December 2021

StarDoor said:

*snip*

To update on this found this from ZhugeEx:

"PS2 Production Shipments were 117.9 million as of March 2007. At this point Sony switched from reporting production shipments to hardware sell in. Hardware sell in at this point was 115.6 million." from this thread

So this is what brings the shipped numbers to 155.01m as of March 31st 2012, finally found some rationale for that figure has everyone quotes it without any source or explanation. 

But yeah like I said in my previous post, the thread was created with the 155.01m figure used as a basis, 158.6m is the minimum PS2 sales with that 155.01m number.



RolStoppable said:
Zippy6 said:

You're right there is a problem with the figures which is this: The FY05 manufactured units being duplicated in FY06 shipping figures has been accounted for but the FY06 manufactured units being duplicated in FY07 shipping numbers is not, so the true PS2 shipments as of March 31st 2012 is 157.3m MINUS however many FY07 shipments were manufactured in FY06.

Secondly "I think this entire thread is based on the faulty premise from this post." is not the case at all, the thread and OP don't even use the 157.3m as of March 31st 2020 figure to show PS2 must be over 158.6m. It uses a 155.1m as of March 31st 2012 figure, the 157.3m figure was mentioned in an edit in the OP and was not used for the whole post.

I remember Sony providing a summary for PS hardware and software shipments, except Vita, not too long ago. Is this where the 157.3m figure as of March 2020 comes from?

My bad that was meant to be March 31st 2012 lol, the figure came from adding together Sony's fiscal numbers for Manufactured FY99-FY06 and Shipped FY07-FY11. But according to ZhugeEx the difference between manufactured and shipped was a lot greater than the 0.51m I thought was accounted for.

155.01m as of March 31st 2012 is as far as I can find the correct number, but even that it's difficult to find a source. I just have this as explanation:

"PS2 Production Shipments were 117.9 million as of March 2007. At this point Sony switched from reporting production shipments to hardware sell in. Hardware sell in at this point was 115.6 million." from this thread

ZhuugeEx says 155.1m in this post, but adding the fiscal numbers from sony to the 115.6m figure actually brings the total to 155.01m

But yeah with this 155.01m figure, PS2 ships a minimum of 158.51m lifetime, if it had shipped less than this from the combined PS2+PS3 figures then PS3 would have reached 80m as of September 30th 2013, but the announcement from Sony that year was 80m as of November 2nd 2013.

Last edited by Zippy6 - on 13 December 2021

RolStoppable said:
Zippy6 said:

My bad that was meant to be March 31st 2012 lol, the figure came from adding together Sony's fiscal numbers for Manufactured FY99-FY06 and Shipped FY07-FY11. But according to ZhugeEx the difference between manufactured and shipped was a lot greater than the 0.51m I thought was accounted for.

155.01m as of March 31st 2012 is as far as I can find the correct number, but even that it's difficult to find a source. I just have this as explanation:

"PS2 Production Shipments were 117.9 million as of March 2007. At this point Sony switched from reporting production shipments to hardware sell in. Hardware sell in at this point was 115.6 million." from this thread

I finally found what was I looking for:
https://www.sie.com/en/corporate/data.html

More than 155.0m as of March 31, 2012.

So at this date the whole confusion between production numbers and sell-in is tangled apart by an official Sony figure.

Only the PS1 and PS3 have final hardware data disclosed as of now. PS2, PSP and PSV look like they will forever be undisclosed while PS4 will get finalized once it has actually stopped selling and the same can be assumed for the PS5. It's clear that the page is getting updated, because the latest PS4 and PS5 numbers are there.

Wow, I can't believe no one in all the threads etc I've been through linked that page, very useful. I guess I can try and pick apart the post 2013 fiscals to see if there's any data to prove how many of those 16.5m PS2+PS3 combined figures were PS3 to get to 87.4m as of March 31st 2017.