Zippy6 said:
...
Sony switched from reporting manufactured units to units sold to retailers as of 2007. So if you look at 2007 or 2008's FY report it will contradict previous reports with slightly different numbers. But I've looked into all the fiscal reports again and yes the widely accepted 155m for March 31st 2012 doesn't seem possible and this 157.3m figure looks correct.
This is what we have from Sony:
Manufactured
FY99 - 1.41m (Source) FY00 - 9.2m (10.61m total) (Source) FY01 - 18.07m (28.68m total) (Source) FY02 - 22.52m (51.2m total) (Source) FY03 - 20.1m (71.3m total) (Source) FY04 - 16.17m (87.47m total) (Source) FY05 - 16.22m (103.69m total) (Source) FY06 - 14.2m (117.89m total) (Source)
Then in the 2007 Fiscal Year report we get this line "Beginning with Q1 FY07, the method of reporting hardware and software unit sales has been changed from production shipments to recorded sales" By this they mean instead of units produced they are reporting sell-in to retailers. Note FY06 figures change in this report:
Sell-In
FY06 - 14.71m (Source)
this extra 0.51m from the above figure will be units manufactured in FY05 but not shipped till FY06 and thus added to FY06 with this new method of reporting If we keep the older figure of 14.2m this stops units being duplicated by the same consoles being included in FY05 manufacturing and FY06 shipping. It's unlikely that any units manufactured in FY05 were not sold to retailers until FY07 so getting rid of this extra 0.51m fixes the problem, now we can continue the total.
FY07 - 13.7m (131.59m total) (Source) FY08 - 7.91m (139.49m total) (Source) FY09 - 7.3m (146.8m total) (Source) FY10 - 6.4m (153.2m total) (Source) FY11 - 4.1m (157.3m total) (Source)
So after the extra 0.51m generated by duplicated units in the switch-over of reporting methods has been taken away we still get to 157.3m shipped by March 31st 2012.
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I think this entire thread is based on the faulty premise from this post. 0.51m is almost certainly not the discrepancy between production shipments and sell-in, and it's impossible for us to know what the true discrepancy is without more info from Sony.
Let me give an example. We have two sets of data for the same console: One is production shipments and the other is sell-in. Cumulative sell-in should always be lower than cumulative production shipments, although in an ideal world they would be equal once a console is discontinued and all remaining stock is sold to retailers.
Consider the sales/production of this fictional console:
|
FY Sell-in |
Cumulative Sell-in |
FY Production |
|
FY1 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
FY2 |
10.0 |
13.5 |
11.0 |
16.5 |
FY3 |
14.5 |
28.0 |
15.0 |
31.5 |
FY4 |
16.0 |
44.0 |
15.5 |
47.0 |
FY5 |
14.5 |
58.5 |
14.0 |
61.0 |
FY6 |
10.0 |
68.5 |
9.5 |
70.5 |
FY7 |
5.5 |
74.0 |
5.0 |
75.5 |
FY8 |
2.0 |
76.0 |
1.5 |
77.0 |
FY9 |
1.0 |
77.0 |
0.0 |
77.0 |
Now let's say that from FY1-4, the manufacturer only shared the production shipments, in FY5, they shared both production and sell-in, and from FY6 onward, they only shared sell-in. If we tried to use your solution to figure out the actual final sales, that would give us this:
|
FY Sell-in |
FY Production |
Cumulative Production |
FY Zippy6 |
|
FY1 |
- |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
FY2 |
- |
11.0 |
16.5 |
11.0 |
16.5 |
FY3 |
- |
15.0 |
31.5 |
15.0 |
31.5 |
FY4 |
- |
15.5 |
47.0 |
15.5 |
47.0 |
FY5 |
14.5 |
14.0 |
61.0 |
14.0 |
61.0 |
FY6 |
10.0 |
- |
- |
10.0 |
71.0 |
FY7 |
5.5 |
- |
- |
5.5 |
76.5 |
FY8 |
2.0 |
- |
- |
2.0 |
78.5 |
FY9 |
1.0 |
- |
- |
1.0 |
79.5 |
See what happened here? You're combining the two different sets of data and then subtracting 0.5m because of the difference in FY5 (so we're using 14.0m instead of 14.5m in FY5), but that's functionally the same as "use production shipments until FY5, and then add on the annual sell-in numbers from FY6 onward". This gives us lifetime sales that are 2.5m too high.
What would a realistic difference be? We can look at the PS3's sales for clues. It launched in the same year that Sony made the switch in their hardware reporting, so we know what the exact gap was between cumulative production and cumulative sell-in as of March 31st, 2007:
PS3 Production Shipments: https://web.archive.org/web/20120609161633/http://scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps3_e.html
PS3 Sell-in: https://web.archive.org/web/20140702143333/www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps3_sale_e.html
Production was 5.5 million while sell-in was 3.5 million, so the gap was 2 million. PS3 then had sell-in of 9.1 million in the next fiscal year (FY2007). In that same year, PS2 had sell-in of 13.7 million, so it's possible that PS2 had an even larger gap than 2 million at that point because it was selling at a faster rate than PS3.
Last edited by StarDoor - on 12 December 2021