BOTW shipments for the 1st half of the fiscal year are down 20% continuing that trend it'll probably ship about 3.86m this fiscal year ending up at 26.14m. So even if sales never declined again it would take until after September 2025 to reach 40m and Switch will be long gone by then.

But sales will decline as Switch's sales decline. BOTW sales are closely linked with Switch console sales which is why this is the first year that BOTW is selling less than the previous year (excluding launch obviously). As the Switch has peaked in 2020 so did BOTW's "evergreen" sales peak in 2020 and BOTW will sell progressively less each year from now.

30m is guaranteed, 35m is on the high-end but possible as long as BOTW2 doesn't negatively impact it's sales.

The fact that Nintendo has somehow managed to get three fitness games over the 10m mark is really amazing. Things like this well justify their inestments on QoL.

@Zippy6 To be fair, Switch software sales likely won't go away in 2025, even if a successor launches in 2024. Obviously, it will continue to decline, but software sales could linger for a bit especially if there is backwards compatibility (and I doubt a new Zelda will launch with Switch 2).

No Nintendo product will ever be as legendary or mythical as the secret QOL project they have kept a tight lid on. Wasn't it last revealed to be something to do with improved sleeping? Whatever happened to that?

Edit* - Apparently it was cancelled in 2019 and in 2020 rumored to be built into Switch 2. Could be their next big gimmick push for the new console. Now I'm hyped again, darn it lol.

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Oh, shit, Mario Kart Switch beat Mario Kart Wii?? That was fast!

Yes it passed it in the last quarter but i wouldn't say it was fast because it took four and a half years.

Only one lonely Zelda game on that list.

Though maybe with BotW2 there will be two.

Is your reply missing?

@S.Peelman I'd be very surprised if BOTW 2 sells less than 10 million. Honestly, I'd be surprised if it sells less than 20m. Personally thinking it will reach around 25m.

It is kind of sad that after all this time, there's only one Zelda game on the list. For what it's worth, that Zelda will probably finish off close to the Top 5 though. Might even squeak past Super Mario Bros.