Are there official updates about this? Or are they expected anytime before FY end or will we have to wait until then? I wonder too whether current sales and trend confirms or denies this prediction: October, November and December sales numbers could make it possible, but only if production can be kept at least at those levels or even increased a little.
We'll get a shipment update at the end of January, which will tell us if Sony are reducing their shipment forecast or not. Looking at sales it seems very likely they won't ship the 14.8m units they planned for this fiscal year due to shortages.
If PS5 isn't undertracked shipments will likely be at about 18-18.5m by the end of 2021. So they would need to ship 4.1m-4.6m in Q1 2022 to make it compared to the 2.4m PS4 did in Q1 2015.
Though PS5 certainly has the ability to ship more in Q1 2022 than 2.4m and start regaining ground on PS4 now the busy holiday season is over.
The holiday season was deadly because they cannot supply 6m+ consoles in one quarter at this time. But they absolutely can manage 2.5m+.