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Forums - Sales Discussion - Bold Prediction: Switch will ship >20m for 5 years

 

Will Switch ship >20m for five years?

Yes 8 28.57%
 
Possibly, but not likely 8 28.57%
 
No, 4 years is the limit 10 35.71%
 
It won't even ship >20m in 2022 2 7.14%
 
Total:28
archbrix on 12 November 2021
Kakadu18 said:
Doctor_MG said:

I personally am one who thinks Nintendo wont quite ship 20M in 2022. I think it will be close (18M-19M), but I don't think they will quite reach it. I accidentally clicked on the wrong option though lol. However, I do think it's a possibility. What I don't think will happen is 20M in 2023. I think that year we are going to get a decline to around 11M. So I'm thinking it looks like this:

end of 2021: 102-103M
end of 2022: 120-122M
end of 2023: 131-133M
end of 2024: 137-139M
end of life: 141-144M

And still over 140mil. How are there so many people who think it'll end up below 130mil.

And that's an incredibly pessimistic prediction after 2021. The only way I see Nintendo not shipping >20m in 2022 is if the chip shortage is severely devastating for Switch.



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ShadowLink93 on 12 November 2021

I think it can do four no problem, it has done 21.03m, 28.82m, and a 24m projection by nintendo in current FY and the following year is stacked with software and could be almost flat for another 22m to 24m or so but the fifth year in a row will be tough, there are so many factors that we don't know. If it does achieve it i think it will be in the very low twenties between 20m to 21m.



ShadowLink93 on 12 November 2021

Here is the fella that had four 20m plus years

How Switch compares.

Last edited by ShadowLink93 - on 12 November 2021

The_Liquid_Laser on 12 November 2021

If we are talking fiscal years, then I'd say 4 at 20m+ is almost guaranteed.  Demand for OLED is going to be high for several months (at least) next year, and the software lineup looks to make 2022 one of Switch's best years.

That fifth year though...I think it will really depend on if/when Nintendo makes a price cut.  The reality is that they would look great to their investors if they could pull off a fifth year at 20m+.  However, they might wait for sales to drop more than that before they actually issue a price cut.  Basically, I think that fifth year at 20m+ is possible, but it depends a lot on Nintendo's behavior.



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Dulfite on 12 November 2021

I hope your wrong. I want a Switch 2 in my hands ASAP and the longer Switch 1 sells well, the longer I'll have to play it's outdated abilities. I want a big jump in power, especially since I was a Wii U owner and the Switch just feels like a portable Wii U in power.