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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - OLED Switch - Week 7 Predictions (Week 6 was 529k)

 

OLED Switch - Week 7 Prediction (All Switches Globally)

$ < 500k 0 0%
 
500k < $ < 550k 0 0%
 
550k < $ < 600k 0 0%
 
600k < $ < 650k 3 25.00%
 
650k < $ < 700k 2 16.67%
 
700k < $ < 750k 2 16.67%
 
750k < $ < 800k 2 16.67%
 
800k < $ < 850k 2 16.67%
 
850k < $ < 900k 0 0%
 
900k < $ 1 8.33%
 
Total:12
padib said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I didn't even vote on week 6, because it's just too hard to know how much Nintendo will stock. However, week 7 will include Pokemon. Surely Nintendo will send out a bigger shipment with that, right?

I hope so, but unless they prepared reserve stock in advance it seems like they are reacting to demand so it's hard to predict if their capacity increased. Given the short timeframe of these events I would speculate that they didn't have enough time to predict for week 7 and are still catching up, perhaps ramping up production but that kind of change can take time. We'll see! :)

Here are the vote results for week 6

I'm going to guess that week 7 is going to be severely supply constrained against Friday's launch of pokemons Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl. I'll go with an absolute emptying of stock at 750k. (my start prediction was 900k)

Someone cheated, there was only 1 vote on 500-550k when I made my post after the numbers had already been released. xD

As for next week, 600-650k is my guess. But it could be higher, it's hard to know how much pokemon will raise sales, and how high sales can be raised based on stock.



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padib said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I didn't even vote on week 6, because it's just too hard to know how much Nintendo will stock. However, week 7 will include Pokemon. Surely Nintendo will send out a bigger shipment with that, right?

I hope so, but unless they prepared reserve stock in advance it seems like they are reacting to demand so it's hard to predict if their capacity increased. Given the short timeframe of these events I would speculate that they didn't have enough time to predict for week 7 and are still catching up, perhaps ramping up production but that kind of change can take time. We'll see! :)

Here are the vote results for week 6

I'm going to guess that week 7 is going to be severely supply constrained against Friday's launch of pokemons Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl. I'll go with an absolute emptying of stock at 750k. (my start prediction was 900k)

I'm voting 700-750k, but that's a total shot in the dark.  It seems to me that whatever they ship they are going to sell.  Same goes for the following week which includes Black Friday.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

I'm voting 700-750k, but that's a total shot in the dark.  It seems to me that whatever they ship they are going to sell.  Same goes for the following week which includes Black Friday.

Nintendo should divert more stock of the standard switch from EU to USA. Switch is always in stock in Europe (not oled).

Amazon UK has it's black friday offers up right now and it's still not sold out here.



So, now is the time for Black Friday week? I'll go with 800-850 then



 

derpysquirtle64 said:

So, now is the time for Black Friday week? I'll go with 800-850 then

Next is week before black friday (week ending 20th) and blackfriday is 26th.

But amazon uk already have blackfriday switch bundles up today lol.

Black Friday week last year Switch did 1.68m, so will be a massive boost coming.



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Zippy6 said:
derpysquirtle64 said:

So, now is the time for Black Friday week? I'll go with 800-850 then

Next is week before black friday (week ending 20th) and blackfriday is 26th.

But amazon uk already have blackfriday switch bundles up today lol.

Whatever, will risk with high numbers prediction anyway



 

Zippy6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I'm voting 700-750k, but that's a total shot in the dark.  It seems to me that whatever they ship they are going to sell.  Same goes for the following week which includes Black Friday.

Nintendo should divert more stock of the standard switch from EU to USA. Switch is always in stock in Europe (not oled).

Amazon UK has it's black friday offers up right now and it's still not sold out here.

The Mario Kart bundle is sold out on Amazon Germany already.

Going with 650-700k. Hope for some more stock for Pokémon.



Kakadu18 said:
Zippy6 said:

Nintendo should divert more stock of the standard switch from EU to USA. Switch is always in stock in Europe (not oled).

Amazon UK has it's black friday offers up right now and it's still not sold out here.

The Mario Kart bundle is sold out on Amazon Germany already.

£270 here for Switch + MK8 + 3 months online + Rayman Legends (RRP of Switch is £260) on Amazon UK. Amazing deals but not sold out while other places are selling out even without deals, so they should be sending more stock elsewhere not the UK.

I imagine it'll have to sell out in the UK with a few more days though with deals like that, just surprised it's taking so long with BF deals while America etc are having stock issues before deals even happen.

So I feel like other countries have been screwed on the amount of units they've been given relative to demand.



Japan Sales: 167.7k
Japan Sales (2020): 179.1k

Global Sales: ???
Global Sales (2020): 747k

Looks like 700-750k might be the winner.



Zippy6 said:

Japan Sales: 167.7k
Japan Sales (2020): 179.1k

Global Sales: ???
Global Sales (2020): 747k

Looks like 700-750k might be the winner.

I hope so, even tough I kinda doubt that. Supply is really tight.