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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - OLED Switch - Closing poll, thank you for participating - Christmas week (Week 12 was 1.083M)

 

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Excellent BF for the Switch, they managed to get a lot of stock available for the big one.



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In 2020 the week after BF sold 1,256,788 units. So having the minimum poll option as <1.3m might be a bit high as I think that's very very likely.

Going to stop making predictions based on the random amount of stock I think might or might not be available and instead a slight decline from 2020 numbers.

I'd predict about 1.2m dead.

Weeks After BF Switch 2020 Switch 2021
0 (BF Week) 1,680,741 1,614,507
1 1,256,788 ?
2 1,401,099 ?
3 1,520,436 ?
4 1,157,994 ?
5 681,341 ?
Total 7,698,399 ?


padib said:

Alright I fixed the poll, let me know if it's good. I'm going for 1.35M this time.

Looks good, I've gone with 1.15m-1.225m option.



Went with the 1.225-1.3mil option. Around last years numbers. Expect sales to rise in Japan/Asia and drop everywhere else. If I'm right they have indeed more stock than previously anticipated. If it's lower that means they stocked an extra big amount for Black Friday.



Well briefly sales for Week 8 were above 1.7m after Europe adjusments, but now NPD has come in and Week 8 is down to 1.49m If the same 17% drop YoY from BF week carries over to Week 9 we'll be looking at 1.04m sales.



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trunkswd said:
padib said:

I added an "After Adjustments" column.

The numbers are much more volatile than I thought, what I like about this exercise is that it forces us to look at the numbers from much closer, and it also exposes how very little we know of what will be shipped and/or sold within a week. Even with the trends of last years, some factors came into play this year that I didn't personally expect.

I try my best to be as accurate as possible, but this time of year is the hardest.

I am sure that hardware shortages do not make your job easy.  Your efforts are appreciated.



1.18m! So I just got this prediction right.

1.150M to 1.225M wins.



Slightly up on last week, but a bigger drop YoY is my guess.

1.225m to 1.3m



Zippy6 said:

Slightly up on last week, but a bigger drop YoY is my guess.

1.225m to 1.3m

1.245m!

2 weeks in a row! Think these might be the only 2 weeks I got right lol.



Going to stick with 1.225m to 1.3m for another week.