Years ago people believed the PS4 would reach 130 million. Then the cliff happened and people changed their predictions to 120 million. Now it looks like it may not even reach 118.5 million. The cliff was definitely bigger than what people expected... except for me. I predicted years ago it would sell less than the GameBoy and I'm sticking to it. For range I'll say 118 - 118.5 million.

I think it will reach 118M, but I'm not sure how much more.

I'm curious what will happen this holiday, as last year was weird, barely any rise in sales for PS4/XBO. (I guess it was maybe offset by the rise in Mar-May?)

Pretty sure it will still pass the Gameboy in the end but 120m may be out of reach unless Sony does a legit price drop (ie a planned drop while they are still manufacturing them)

Indeed, given how things are going Sony may just discontinue it after Christmas, they will probably have a better handle on PS5 supply by then and they seem dead set on pushing everyone to that instead.

If they do that then maybe Gameboy is out of reach too, as if Sony dont ship them they cant be sold.

Until Sony can properly stock the PS5 and completely drop the PS4, the PS4 shipments will be steady. So 3 or 4 more quarters of 500k-1m.

I reckon Sony had other plans for the PS4 but the pandemic happened and with it, the semiconductors problems.

For the first time in many many years, there weren’t any Black Friday deals for Sony/MS consoles, the stock for PS4/Xbone was pretty low and they sold them for $299/399 (PS4) and $299 for the Xbone.

All of that basically signs that MS and Sony prioritised the production of their new consoles.

It could reach 120M but they need to solve the semiconductors problems first and then see if a price cut is possible. The system is still priced $299/399 after 8 years and with extremely low stock produced.

Because there weren’t any holiday bundles, the years before (2017,2018 and 2019), a PS4/Xbone could be found at $199 (base model), But in 2020 the systems were $299 with very limited supply. 

Most of us predicted 130m because we were expecting a price cut and continue support after ps5. However that didnt happen and at this rate it will most likely finish below 120m

I see some people brining up price point, and while I think a price cut would help slightly it wouldn't do that much. Main reason is these semiconductor shortages probably prevent Sony to make that many PS4s to begin with since they would rather use them for PS5s. Another reason I see is Sony wants to go the Nintendo route and try to make as much money on their hardware as possible.
Side Note: The fact the Switch is almost 4.5 years old and hasn't received a price cut or a holiday sale shocks me. It might pass the PS4 before a price cut happens. Sony probably wants to match that Nintendo hardware profit.

PS5 has killed the ps4. But it can still overtake the Gameboy. There's still GT7 and Horizon 2 launching on it so it has some support. They shipped 1.5m the first 6 months of this year so shipping another 2.5m over the next couple of years shouldn't be too hard.

120m is doable.