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Forums - Gaming Discussion - The WiiU will Fall (NA)

DonFerrari said:
Pemalite said:

The Xbox Series S is just cheaper and easier to mass produce... You can get many many many more chips per wafer than a Series X or Playstation 5, hence why it seems they are able to flood the marketplace with them. (Because they CAN!)
Especially as we are in a chip crunch, the more Series S they can produce and potentially sell in volume as we enter the 9th gens second year/holiday season, the better.

It probably is easier to mass produce. But well, if the spread in Japan is similar for the rest of the world (and I believe it is), Series X is shipped/sold twice as much as Series S, and still there is shortage of X and surpluss of S. So even though it is a good proposition to get a S and GP for people with less room on their budget, the market haven`t been so warm with it yet at least. Perhaps the GP Ultimate with Xcloud will make it a little redundant.

Japan is not a territory that I would use to ascertain sales/success/popularity/anything to do with Xbox. It's never been an Xbox territory even when the console was dominating elsewhere.

Obviously Series S vs Series X's success will vary from region to region, especially in low vs high income nations.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

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Pemalite said:
DonFerrari said:

It probably is easier to mass produce. But well, if the spread in Japan is similar for the rest of the world (and I believe it is), Series X is shipped/sold twice as much as Series S, and still there is shortage of X and surpluss of S. So even though it is a good proposition to get a S and GP for people with less room on their budget, the market haven`t been so warm with it yet at least. Perhaps the GP Ultimate with Xcloud will make it a little redundant.

Japan is not a territory that I would use to ascertain sales/success/popularity/anything to do with Xbox. It's never been an Xbox territory even when the console was dominating elsewhere.

Obviously Series S vs Series X's success will vary from region to region, especially in low vs high income nations.

Fair point.  But at least on my thinking I always thought something like 2/3 X, 1/3 S for Xbox and 1/5 Digital and 4/5 Physical for PS5 at least in the start. During gen if one or another  makes more success sure production will increase accordingly to that.

Brazil would be a "low income nation" if we look at per capita, and even here for some reason (GP seems like very successful and Ultimate for Cloud as well) the Series S is also the one that is regularly available in stores while the other 3 is like one batch a month on sale for 2h. I don't think there were ever a gen like this, even gen 7 it was only Wii that was constrained for such a long time. Gen 8 Xbox was constrained only on the Holiday launch, but in January was already possible to find in stores (some countries even had day one editions in March), PS4 had been on regular supply by April or so in most countries and Switch was like 1 year more or less of constrained. I'm really curious to see if AMD boss was right with the second semester of 2022 having the consoles not being supply constrained anymore and how everything will change with that (distribution per models, per region, and gap between plaftorms in those regions and WW).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

Um, I think you were a regular member of the npd predictions threads on Era.

Still am. Why do you ask?



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

DonFerrari said:
Pemalite said:

Japan is not a territory that I would use to ascertain sales/success/popularity/anything to do with Xbox. It's never been an Xbox territory even when the console was dominating elsewhere.

Obviously Series S vs Series X's success will vary from region to region, especially in low vs high income nations.

Fair point.  But at least on my thinking I always thought something like 2/3 X, 1/3 S for Xbox and 1/5 Digital and 4/5 Physical for PS5 at least in the start. During gen if one or another  makes more success sure production will increase accordingly to that.

Brazil would be a "low income nation" if we look at per capita, and even here for some reason (GP seems like very successful and Ultimate for Cloud as well) the Series S is also the one that is regularly available in stores while the other 3 is like one batch a month on sale for 2h. I don't think there were ever a gen like this, even gen 7 it was only Wii that was constrained for such a long time. Gen 8 Xbox was constrained only on the Holiday launch, but in January was already possible to find in stores (some countries even had day one editions in March), PS4 had been on regular supply by April or so in most countries and Switch was like 1 year more or less of constrained. I'm really curious to see if AMD boss was right with the second semester of 2022 having the consoles not being supply constrained anymore and how everything will change with that (distribution per models, per region, and gap between plaftorms in those regions and WW).

I would not be surprised if supply constraints continue into 2023... Fabs don't get built super quickly unfortunately... But once we head into 2024 and 2025, we will have an influx of fab capacity, which should place downward price pressures with some luck.

AMD's wafer supply could continue to be eaten up by GPU (Radeon, FirePro etc') and CPU (Ryzen 6000 series with extra 3D cache.) in 2023.
Remember TSMC's biggest customer (Apple) moved on from 7nm and that freed capacity didn't improve supply constraints on CPU's, GPU's and APU's much... So a late 2022 could see improved capacity, but I would imagine supply constraints would definitely continue to exist as new state of the art fabs haven't come online... The bet is for other markets to move from 7nm to 5nm, giving more capacity to the consoles.

Plus consoles need more than just the APU, they do need GDDR6 memory chips, NAND chips, NAND Controller (With Ram), Optical drive controller (With Ram), South Bridge, Powersupply components and IC's, Ethernet controller, Regulators, Capacitors, Resistors, LED's and more.

Any shortage on one of those components will hold back the production of consoles.

Ironically, this is one instance where Nintendo's insistence of using older/outdated technology has paid off in spades.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Pemalite said:
DonFerrari said:

Fair point.  But at least on my thinking I always thought something like 2/3 X, 1/3 S for Xbox and 1/5 Digital and 4/5 Physical for PS5 at least in the start. During gen if one or another  makes more success sure production will increase accordingly to that.

Brazil would be a "low income nation" if we look at per capita, and even here for some reason (GP seems like very successful and Ultimate for Cloud as well) the Series S is also the one that is regularly available in stores while the other 3 is like one batch a month on sale for 2h. I don't think there were ever a gen like this, even gen 7 it was only Wii that was constrained for such a long time. Gen 8 Xbox was constrained only on the Holiday launch, but in January was already possible to find in stores (some countries even had day one editions in March), PS4 had been on regular supply by April or so in most countries and Switch was like 1 year more or less of constrained. I'm really curious to see if AMD boss was right with the second semester of 2022 having the consoles not being supply constrained anymore and how everything will change with that (distribution per models, per region, and gap between plaftorms in those regions and WW).

I would not be surprised if supply constraints continue into 2023... Fabs don't get built super quickly unfortunately... But once we head into 2024 and 2025, we will have an influx of fab capacity, which should place downward price pressures with some luck.

AMD's wafer supply could continue to be eaten up by GPU (Radeon, FirePro etc') and CPU (Ryzen 6000 series with extra 3D cache.) in 2023.
Remember TSMC's biggest customer (Apple) moved on from 7nm and that freed capacity didn't improve supply constraints on CPU's, GPU's and APU's much... So a late 2022 could see improved capacity, but I would imagine supply constraints would definitely continue to exist as new state of the art fabs haven't come online... The bet is for other markets to move from 7nm to 5nm, giving more capacity to the consoles.

Plus consoles need more than just the APU, they do need GDDR6 memory chips, NAND chips, NAND Controller (With Ram), Optical drive controller (With Ram), South Bridge, Powersupply components and IC's, Ethernet controller, Regulators, Capacitors, Resistors, LED's and more.

Any shortage on one of those components will hold back the production of consoles.

Ironically, this is one instance where Nintendo's insistence of using older/outdated technology has paid off in spades.

I would guess by 2023 or 2024 even Series and PS5 will have already moved to a smaller node so the 7nm being freed won't help much =[



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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PS5 shifts GameGear a spot down to 23rd whilst claiming the 22nd spot. Not to be outshined, Xbox Series has claimed the 24th position knocking the Atari 7800 down to 25th. The gap between the PS5 and Xbox Series continues to grow.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

Shifting Gears, lol. Good one.



North American positions as of November 27th 2021.

               

There was no change as of yet, but there are some notable mentions.  There is a good chance PS5 will be overtaking the WiiU next week and then it will begin its long climb to the GameCube.

For the last 3 weeks the Xbox Series has begun to eat away at the lead the PS5 has held over it.  The lead was stretched to approx. 1.2 million at one point and has now been diminished to below a million.

Xbox Series is creeping up on the GameGear, but it is not certain it will surpass it next week.

The Switch continues to inch its way closer to the PS4, but the month that it overtakes it is still not clear.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.