Yea SD card have dropped in price to like about half of what it cost when the Switch launched so i do think they will upgrade. But they always were super late on the competition in that department too, so i think 64 gb is like obvious, might end up being 128 gb but higher i would be surprised actually. They will try to keep the price as low as possible and push their line of SD cards instead. Honestly 128 GB would be fine for me i would just buy maybe another 128 gb and that's it.

I think you might be in the wrong thread?

Nah i'm just late and it was the previous page and should have quoted lol

I don't see Nintendo being in a big rush to replace the Switch, so yeah I think It'll do it.

I don't think so, PS2 is the king of consoles.

I'm starting to think yes Switch will outsell the PS2.

Previously I figured Switch would be replaced Spring 2024 and might hit 140 million. But now I'm thinking Nintendo, after last years incredible year and this year looking likely to sell as well if not even better(!!), with the help of the future premium Switch model that plays 4k which will make the Switch seem more on graphical even ground with the new systems, Nintendo could extend Switch's life to say holiday 2025. If this is their plan, I think we will see a new Mario Kart (probably with some changes to differentiate it from MK8D) to help push sales the last few years of Switch's lifecycle, since MK is Nintendo's ultimate evergreen.

Nintendo hasn't done any price cuts, they haven't discounted their first party games, they have an upgraded model coming (which could maaaaybe get some sort of little exclusive library of AAA third party games ported over to it), they've got two more Pokemon games coming in the next year and there will probably be another one in like holiday 2023 or first half of 2024, BotW2 will undoubtedly launch in the next year, Splatoon 3 next year, no doubt a 2D Mario at some point, apparently a bunch of great games coming this year according to rumors along with what we already know and what has already released. They will no doubt eventually launch a bunch of other games people are waiting for. We'll probably see another 3D Mario in 2022 or 2023. To get more non-gamers in they can tap into Ring Fit's popularity again with a sequel, a Wii Sports port or Wii Sports-like game, and bring back some of their casual series from the DS era. They've still got a few ports or collections they could bring in like a Zelda collection and Metroid Prime trilogy. Switch Online is just waiting for GB, GBA, and N64 additions. Plus more big third party games will likely start hitting Switch with its user base passing 100 million. That's a TON of longevity left in the Switch.

Switch could definitely be over 105 million by end of this year. If BotW2 doesn't get out by Christmas then next year would have Pokemon Legends, Splatoon 3, and BotW2 for three huge games next year, coming on the heels of multiple huge games this year, and the new upgraded model somewhere in that mix. Sales trajectory should drop below 20 million in 2023, but then Nintendo can unleash hardware price cuts, still be pumping out mega selling games, and maybe even start up the Nintendo Selects discounted games on older games.

Sales were around 77 million end of 2020. It's not hard to imagine Switch matching last year's sales this year (it will mostly likely beat it) which would put it at 105 million end of 2021. Next year should be huge as well but will likely start dropping, so let's say another 23 million to put it at 128 million. 2023 perhaps is where Switch finally starts coming back down to earth as the market starts to saturate but then Nintendo announces price cuts on hardware and software and early buyers of Switch pick up the premium model or families pick up extra Switch Lites for their kids at $150 and it still manages 19 million to put it at 147. At that point it is within striking distance of DS and PS2 and still going strong. 2024 Switch will start running out of steam and maybe do 14 million, putting it at 161 million and easily above PS2. That'll set Switch 2 up for perhaps a holiday 2025 launch, with the Switch hitting 170 million by end of 2025. Noting all this, Switch could end up just under 180 million when it's all over.

Nice chart this must take a lot of time to make and update.

Only for the first time setup.  After that its just a one line update per console per quarter.

IE:

2020 | Q4 | PS5 | 3,300

Everything else auto-populates.

Let's have some fun with this:

Give the Switch some solid drops in FY 03/22 and FY 03/23 and then tank it after that and it climbs up to 150M.

Small bump this year, gradual decline in the next two years and then tank it after that (after 2024) and we climb up to 180M.

Big boost from Pro revision this FY, nice hold as Pro stock stabilizes next year.  Steady declines after that and then tank it in 2025 and we start eyeing 200M.

If Nintendo are serious about this being the "middle" of Switch's lifespan and give it til 2024 or later before replacement and a 3DS-style retirement where it still gets some noteworthy games after its successor, it passing PS2 becomes practically a mathematical inevitability.

With the new model and games like Pokemon Legends, Splatoon 3, and I suspect BOTW2 next year, I expect another 20 million plus year for 2022, and it's already charting to be over 100 million by the end of this year. After that, even if it drops sharply to say 15 million in 2023, it would only need to sell another 20 million from then until it's discontinuation to take the throne. I doubt its post-replacement legs will be as long as PS2, but they simply won't need to be.