Lmao, why?

Given it's current sales momentum, it's still within the realm of possibility I think. It'll be hard, I think this year will be a good indicator of how feasible it is. If it performs as around as well as last year or better then there's a decent chance it will.

I would have said no as early as last year. Now I'm leaning yes if there is a Switch Pro that adds years to it life cycle. They really need to have some big games coming out over the next 3 or so years. Last year was a dud outside of Animal Crossing and some ports and it still sold crazy numbers.

Considering the Switch is still selling great and the Switch pro will have new and existing switch owners buying it. It's definitely in the realm of possibilities. I feel like it could be a close one with only about 1-2 million separating the two when the dust settles. For now I'll stick with the PS2 though.

PS4

FY3/14 - 7.5M / 7.5M
FY3/15 - 14.8M / 22.3M
FY3/16 - 17.7M / 40.0M
FY3/17 - 20.0M / 60.0M
FY3/18 - 19.0M / 79.0M
FY3/19 - 17.8M / 96.8My
FY3/20 - 13.3M / 110.1M
FY3/21 - 5.8M / 115.9M

NSW sales curve is nothing like this and Sony will end up just near 120mil

Again, all of this data is more and more pointing to the Pandemic hurting more than helping the Switch at this point. We will never know exactly how successful the combination of ACNH+Switch could have been if it wasn't for supply constraints.  Imagine how much better the weekly sales would be if everyone that wanted one worldwide was able to find one on store shelves. This notion that the Pandemic is why the Switch is seeing so much success is even further off base when we look at the evergreen title sales. If people were just buying it to kill some time with ACNH then we would have seen little to no growth across their other titles, which simply isn't true. As a matter of fact, software sales growth has outpaced hardware sales growth, people are buying Switches because of the amazing games.

I mean, look at the sales totals of BotW last quarter. It was the 5th best selling 1st party software, outpacing SSBU and Pokemon. You can point to that first major spike in March 2020 being caused by the Pandemic, but looking at the software that is being sold, it's not just casuals that are gobbling up Switches. Word of mouth has spread about the amazing games only available on the Nintendo Switch.

I can't wait to see what the sales are going to look like for this last quarter with the Mario and Monster Hunter Switch models and 3D World and Monster Hunter releasing.

If not for shortages, the holiday quarter 2020 for the Switch would have easily been the biggest ever for any console and the same goes for the year as a whole.

The pandemic increased demand for all electronics so saying that it hurt the Switch more than helped is disingenuous at best. I agree in that I doubt the Switch would have done way worse without it though.

Three majors factors and one minor.

1)3d free glass technology. Nintendo has polícy games for everyone, what happens when launched a platform with 3d free glass exclude children and people don't like 3d free glass? And all the games have brought this feature, the arcade roots( Nintendo roots) go against the 3ds directions, Nintendo loses more potential market.

2) The Price, portables so far is more affordable than a stationary videogame. GB, GBA, DS all have a low price point.

3) The casualization of touch generation. The DS core, touch generation, go to shovelware and bad games, try to copy Nintendo games. But Nintendo really invests the A team with good money on the projects, most thirds don't go this way. The new market, touch generation, go away with crappy games and abandoned this try indeed with Nintendo.  And the occidental support migrates to Smartphones mythos heaven.

4) Smartphone multimedia better device than a portable videogame. This one hits more sony than Nintendo. But hits Nintendo in some way too.

yeah. The portability mays help against the fall.