Will Switch outsell PS2 and/or DS? | |||
| Yes, it will outsell PS2's (~159Million) | 100 | 57.47% | |
| Will outsell the DS, but not the PS2 | 74 | 42.53% | |
| Switch will fall short of both DS & PS2 | 0 | 0% | |
| Total: | 174 | ||
| Metallox said: If it does, I'm gonna buy and play Balan Wonderworld for 50 hours. Who wants to bet? |
Don't do this, you fool! Think of the risks! XD
| Elputoxd said: What Nintendo should worry about is Switch 2. The last time they thought their new brands ("DS" and "Wii") and backwards compatibility alone would bring success they got a console that sold less than half what the console that came before it did (3DS' 75 million vs DS' 155 million) and a colossal flop (Wii U), so Switch 2 is not a guaranteed success and I fear they might become complacent. Not to mention the flop that was the PS Vita, succesor to a very succesful console and with backwards compatibility, low price and portability too. Still a huge flop. |
That's one of the most relevant point of the topic.
I honestly don't understand why the 3DS flopped, it got console level games
| Metallox said: If it does, I'm gonna buy and play Balan Wonderworld for 50 hours. Who wants to bet? |
Shadow1980 said: And I've made it clear that the way it's selling now is not due to normal sales growth. As of the end of 2020, there were 9.11M units shipped to markets outside the main three, less than half of what it had sold in Japan or Europe by that point. Even if it doubles that, it won't be enough to top PS2 sales outside the main three regions (~25M units). The Switch will definitely have a solid lead over the PS2 in Japan, and possibly a lead over the PS2 in North America, but it's likely going to fall well short of the PS2 outside those two regions. Even if the Switch hits, say, 55M in North America and 30M in Japan, it would still need 73M from Europe and RoW, well over double what current sales are. Europe and RoW are glaring weak points in the Switch's chances of beating the PS2 globally. Nintendo will have to find some way to keep sales going at current levels until at least the end of 2023, and probably need to actually grow them in that span. I really don't see any possible scenario where that could happen, especially considering that the Switch's sales levels over the past 13 months are not due to normal sales growth.
That's the thing. We don't know. Will Nintendo continuing engaging in their old habits, or will they go back to the NES days when it comes to long-term support? It's anybody's guess. But old habits die hard, and until Nintendo proves that they're going to continue to offer real, meaningful support, meaning top-tier A-list blockbusters in addition to smaller titles, for at least another 2-3 years, I don't have any reason to think they won't do to the Switch what they did to every other system they've released since 1996. But apparently people that want the Switch to be the new #1 think otherwise. I guess we'll see how things pan out over the next couple of years, but until then I stand by my belief that past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. |
The way the Switch is selling now may not be normal sales growth. We don't know all the games that will release in 2021 yet though so there's a high chance the Switch will outsell Ds's best year.
For those 9.11mil the Switch was available in China for just a bit and the Chinese market likes mobile gaming so the Switch has a chance of making a big impact there so I wouldn't rule out Switch outselling the Ps2 in Row. Also in Europe I think the Switch will be within 10mil of the Ps2, cause I could see it easily selling 40+mil there.
It's been said on this thread that Splatoon 3's release 5 years after the release of the Console is apparently unprecedented for Nintendo after the Nes. This already supports that Nintendo is changing its Console support habits, but we'll see.
Darwinianevolution said:
Don't do this, you fool! Think of the risks! XD |
Yes, I will! I only need a group of people to remind me in 2-4 years if it happens. I'll put it my signature as well, though I've had that feature disabled for a very long time. Can people still see my signature even if I have it disabled?
All in all, I hope the site is still here in that time, lol
Oh, and it doesn't have to be Balan Wonderworld, it can be whatever memey bad game it wanders around by then. If there aren't any, I'll play Balan, and FOR Switch, no less.
My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first.
Metallox said:
Yes, I will! I only need a group of people to remind me in 2-4 years if it happens. I'll put it my signature as well, though I've had that feature disabled for a very long time. Can people still see my signature even if I have it disabled? All in all, I hope the site is still here in that time, lol Oh, and it doesn't have to be Balan Wonderworld, it can be whatever memey bad game it wanders around by then. If there aren't any, I'll play Balan, and FOR Switch, no less. |
I'm willing to bet if we can change the conditions of the bet. (I don't want either of us playing Balan Wonderworld.)
The winner lists several games that they really, really like. The loser picks one from the list that they haven't played yet. Then they have to play it on normal difficulty for 50 hours or until they beat it. The loser has 30 days to complete the task.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
| Elputoxd said: What Nintendo should worry about is Switch 2. The last time they thought their new brands ("DS" and "Wii") and backwards compatibility alone would bring success they got a console that sold less than half what the console that came before it did (3DS' 75 million vs DS' 155 million) and a colossal flop (Wii U), so Switch 2 is not a guaranteed success and I fear they might become complacent. Not to mention the flop that was the PS Vita, succesor to a very succesful console and with backwards compatibility, low price and portability too. Still a huge flop. |
I mean there is a big part of Wii and DS's market was casual gamers that don't follow generations. Wii U and 3DS didn't felt like a good transition and different, more like a "bonus" console. We have no clue how the next Switch will play out, they will have to bring something really different to the table. They dabbled into VR with Labo, i could see them trying to bring it to the next Switch for example. If they wait long enough, they could maybe afford having a a somewhat good enough screen to use the tablet and put it directly in a VR headset... that's honestly the way i could see VR succeed the most. You don't have to buy something super expensive and the software is the same so you just need to adapt it a little. Problem with VR right now is it's too expansive and too weak, so you have to do seperate games with lower resolution for such a high price, and that PS/MS crowd is mainly a graphic audience.
So that's one way i could see them have an impact. There is many options that are lacking to the current Switch that could be an argument, but if they only add some stuff here and there and make it more powerful, then i obviously don't see it doing as close as good the Switch is doing. But i also think the Switch model is working so well that there would still be a pretty good demand for a Switch 2 simply just upgraded and having new features.
52,945 
| Metallox said: If it does, I'm gonna buy and play Balan Wonderworld for 50 hours. Who wants to bet? |
Playing that game for even 5 minutes has been proven to cause brain damage.
It’s certainly possible, at least. As it stands, the Switch will likely sell through 85 million units (they’ve hit close to 82 million based on Japanese sales alone) for fiscal year 2020. The Switch’s momentum appears to be growing, and with the Pro looking likely for this year, a modest increase in units sold YoY to 32 million seems like a solid prediction. That’d put the Switch 117 million by the end of fiscal year 2021.
I think 2021 will likely be the Switch’s climax, however, so we can expect a drop off for 2022. I think 23 million would be a pretty solid estimate. That puts the Switch at 140 million. Then 2023 would be another drop off, and likely Switch’s final full year, so lets say about 12 million. 152 million. I think the Switch can easily sell another 5 million after the release of its successor...and that’d be enough to push it past the PS2.
Given how well the Switch sold in 2020, it’s foolish to discount its ability to beat the PS2. So long as Nintendo doesn’t outright discontinue it before 2024, I would personally bet on it happening.
Leynos said:
Playing that game for even 5 minutes has been proven to cause brain damage. |
It is known to the State of California to cause cancer.
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