Shadow1980 said: And I've made it clear that the way it's selling now is not due to normal sales growth. As of the end of 2020, there were 9.11M units shipped to markets outside the main three, less than half of what it had sold in Japan or Europe by that point. Even if it doubles that, it won't be enough to top PS2 sales outside the main three regions (~25M units). The Switch will definitely have a solid lead over the PS2 in Japan, and possibly a lead over the PS2 in North America, but it's likely going to fall well short of the PS2 outside those two regions. Even if the Switch hits, say, 55M in North America and 30M in Japan, it would still need 73M from Europe and RoW, well over double what current sales are. Europe and RoW are glaring weak points in the Switch's chances of beating the PS2 globally. Nintendo will have to find some way to keep sales going at current levels until at least the end of 2023, and probably need to actually grow them in that span. I really don't see any possible scenario where that could happen, especially considering that the Switch's sales levels over the past 13 months are not due to normal sales growth.
That's the thing. We don't know. Will Nintendo continuing engaging in their old habits, or will they go back to the NES days when it comes to long-term support? It's anybody's guess. But old habits die hard, and until Nintendo proves that they're going to continue to offer real, meaningful support, meaning top-tier A-list blockbusters in addition to smaller titles, for at least another 2-3 years, I don't have any reason to think they won't do to the Switch what they did to every other system they've released since 1996. But apparently people that want the Switch to be the new #1 think otherwise. I guess we'll see how things pan out over the next couple of years, but until then I stand by my belief that past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. |
The way the Switch is selling now may not be normal sales growth. We don't know all the games that will release in 2021 yet though so there's a high chance the Switch will outsell Ds's best year.
For those 9.11mil the Switch was available in China for just a bit and the Chinese market likes mobile gaming so the Switch has a chance of making a big impact there so I wouldn't rule out Switch outselling the Ps2 in Row. Also in Europe I think the Switch will be within 10mil of the Ps2, cause I could see it easily selling 40+mil there.
It's been said on this thread that Splatoon 3's release 5 years after the release of the Console is apparently unprecedented for Nintendo after the Nes. This already supports that Nintendo is changing its Console support habits, but we'll see.
