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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Prediction: Switch SW 2021 > DS SW 2007(physical only)

DS Software Sales in Famitsu Top 100:

  • DS 2004 - 893.913
  • DS 2005 - 8.790.117
  • DS 2006 - 29.506.358
  • DS 2007 - 27.093.419
  • DS 2008 - 17.248.480

Switch Software Sales in Famitsu Top 100:

  • Switch 2017 - 6.758.666
  • Switch 2018 - 12.720.950
  • Switch 2019 - 14.847.793

Famitsu 2020 Top 50:

NSW TOTAL: 17.245.204

In the Top 100 I anticipate that this year Switch will reach a total of about 22 million physical softwareAround 40% of sales will be concentrated in four main titles New Horizon, Ring Fit Adventure, Momotaro & Sword/Shield which combined will surpass 10 million

Next year will be the Peak Software year we've seen so far on the Switch, mainly due to the much higher profile third party support.

Monster Hunter Rise is shaping up like it might be new franchise record in Japan, while Ring Fit Adventure and New Horizon will seemingly continue to attract new people to the Switch and have very strong sales in 2021. Just those three titles have a chance to surpass 10 million software next year. Combine their impact with evergreens and the strongest 3rd party support we've seen on the Switch thus far & 2021 is shaping up to be able to challenge the 2006 DS Peak. 

Overall the DS was a monster but it still had competition, which the Switch will lack in 2021 allowing it to reach a state of domination in the Top 100 not enjoyed by Nintendo since 1994. This lack of competition will also play into hardware sales, which I anticipate to be higher in 2021. 



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Edit: Ok, I misread as 2021 > 2020 

2021 > 2007 is a bit  more tricky and depends on other high 3rd party titles other than MH

Keeping the original post here nonetheless 

----

I'm in

No way in hell holiday 2021 won't be better than holiday 2020 with pretty much a mainline Zelda and a Pokemon game confirmed

I'm assuming MH crowd will be the big push here. AC was the definition of a system seller and so is MH

Many evergreen titles
AC and Ring Fit nowhere near saturation point
Bigger third party support
Stronger holiday/first party releases

Seems like a good shot for 2021 > 2020

Last edited by IcaroRibeiro - on 27 December 2020

Made a mistake should have been 2006 vs 2021

DS Top 20 2005

  1. Animal Crossing: Wild World - 1.169.757
  2. Brain Age - 1.011.341
  3. Nintendogs - 965.665
  4. Big Brain Academy - 875.371
  5. Tamagotchi Connection - 770.391
  6. Mario Kart DS - 669.575
  7. Pokémon Mystery Dungeon - 521.380
  8. WarioWare: Touched! - 505.254
  9. Jump! Super Stars - 464.076
  10. Super Mario 64 DS - 447.505
  11. Clubhouse Games - 301.809
  12. Kirby Canvas Curse - 276.418
  13. Pokémon Puzzle - 215.038
  14. Naruto: Ninja Council 2 - 212.655
  15. Yoshi Touch & Go - 197.337
  16. Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime 2 - 176.218
  17. Pokémon Dash - 171.286
  18. Dragon Ball Z: Supersonic Warriors 2 - 165.599
  19. Super Princess Peach - 142.684
  20. Naruto RPG 2: Chidori Vs. Rasengan - 121.321

TOTAL: 9.380.680

TOTAL HARDWARE: 4.151.356

DS Top 20 2006

  1. Pokémon Diamond / Pearl - 4.302.815
  2. New Super Mario Bros - 3.818.214
  3. Brain Age 2 - 3.748.638
  4. Animal Crossing: Wild World - 2.485.264
  5. Brain Age - 1.991.116
  6. English Training - 1.529.618
  7. Mario Kart DS - 1.115.082
  8. Tetris DS - 985.246
  9. Final Fantasy III - 935.390
  10. Common Sense Training - 916.600
  11. Love and Berry - 778.734
  12. Tamagotchi Connection - 713.237
  13. Kirby Squeak Squad - 698.133
  14. Cooking Navi - 691.007
  15. Pokémon Ranger - 643.776
  16. Dragon Quest Monsters - 633.084
  17. Jump! Ultimate Stars - 548.474
  18. Big Brain Academy - 455.557
  19. Nintendogs - 442.223
  20. Mario & Luigi: Partners in Time - 417.391

TOTAL: 27.849.599

TOTAL HARDWARE: 8.358.730

2006 was insane for the DS

  • Peak Hardware sales of 8.35 million
  • Diamond/Pearl surpassing 4 million
  • 3 titles surpassing 3 million
  • 4 titles surpassing 2 million
  • 7 titles surpassing 1 million

DS Hardware Sales

  • 2004 - 1.495.593 
  • 2005 - 4.151.356
  • 2006 - 8.358.730
  • 2007 - 7.167.372
  • 2008 - 3.946.585
  • 2009 - 4.159.445
  • 2010 - 2.872.621
  • 2011 - 657.815

Switch Hardware Sales

  • 2017 - 3.407.158 
  • 2018 - 3.482.388
  • 2019 - 4.493.885
Last edited by noshten - on 28 December 2020