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Forums - Sales - Super Smash Bros. Ultimate shipped 19.99 million by June 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate shipped 19.99 million by June 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 24 million 55 9.03%
 
24.0 - 25.9 million 108 17.73%
 
26.0 - 27.9 million 102 16.75%
 
28.0 - 29.9 million 84 13.79%
 
30.0 - 31.9 million 148 24.30%
 
32.0 - 33.9 million 25 4.11%
 
34.0 - 35.9 million 20 3.28%
 
36.0 - 37.9 million 7 1.15%
 
38.0 - 40.0 million 9 1.48%
 
More than 40 million 51 8.37%
 
Total:609
tbone51 on 19 October 2020

Didn’t know I be involved in a bonus question lol. I think I can’t even answer it xD

On topic, smash hasn’t done under 900k in a quarter and NSW will do well next year and it’ll keep selling a few years after imo. With that SSBU should be about 23mil by years end and 26mil-27mil by end of 2021. I’ll go with 31.5mil



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tbone51 on 20 October 2020
RolStoppable said:
tbone51 said:
Didn’t know I be involved in a bonus question lol. I think I can’t even answer it xD

On topic, smash hasn’t done under 900k in a quarter and NSW will do well next year and it’ll keep selling a few years after imo. With that SSBU should be about 23mil by years end and 26mil-27mil by end of 2021. I’ll go with 31.5mil

Wow, that's low, coming from you. I expect ~23m by the end of 2020, ~27m by end of 2021, ~30.5m by end of 2022 (I don't think there will be another round of DLC after 2021), ~33m by end of 2023, so this game will leg it out into the 34.0-35.9m range. That's my pick in the poll.

2020: 23mil

2021: 27mil

2022: 29.5mil

2023: 31mil

2024: 32.5mil

2025+: 34mil

your right. I was doing quick math but the game will sell for years like other Nintendo games



Kai_Mao on 22 October 2020

It's pretty amazing that we're talking about a fighting game (yes, its a fighting game, anyone that complains otherwise can stuff it) possibly selling at around 30-40 million or whatever. And its not adding re-releases, remakes, or upgraded editions. I'll be conservative and say around 25 million LT. But I wouldn't complain if I was wrong. Its an incredible game with a roster that is all-time great.

I would be surprised if any future fighting game can come even close to this, considering the limited appeal of fighting games (with Smash, MK, and, to an extent, Tekken being the exceptions). Street Fighter has sorta fallen off a bit with V not selling significantly better than IV and Marvel vs. Capcom Infinite completely wetting the bed sales-wise.



Fuchigole on 22 October 2020

I wonder which one is going to sell more at the the end, Smash or BOTW. I mean, Smash has the lead, but BOTW has been impressive as well.



Slownenberg on 22 October 2020
Fuchigole said:
I wonder which one is going to sell more at the the end, Smash or BOTW. I mean, Smash has the lead, but BOTW has been impressive as well.

Smash easily. Smash is a multiplayer game, it appeals to more people. Smash will end up being the third best selling Switch game. Mario Kart and AC are going over 40 million, and Smash might make it to 40mil but should at least make it to 35mil. BotW might top out right at 30mil.



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MasonADC on 23 October 2020
Fuchigole said:
I wonder which one is going to sell more at the the end, Smash or BOTW. I mean, Smash has the lead, but BOTW has been impressive as well.

If botw didnt have a sequel it would sell more. But it does and smash wont so smash will end up on top. 



tbone51 on 23 October 2020
Slownenberg said:
Fuchigole said:
I wonder which one is going to sell more at the the end, Smash or BOTW. I mean, Smash has the lead, but BOTW has been impressive as well.

Smash easily. Smash is a multiplayer game, it appeals to more people. Smash will end up being the third best selling Switch game. Mario Kart and AC are going over 40 million, and Smash might make it to 40mil but should at least make it to 35mil. BotW might top out right at 30mil.



BotW should do over 30mil easy. BotW shouldn’t be counted out because it’s single player. If that were the case it wouldn’t be selling 4mil+ yearly

MasonADC said:
Fuchigole said:
I wonder which one is going to sell more at the the end, Smash or BOTW. I mean, Smash has the lead, but BOTW has been impressive as well.

If botw didnt have a sequel it would sell more. But it does and smash wont so smash will end up on top. 

Sequel won’t harm its legs. Multiplayer games do that, and if anything I can see BotW becoming Nintendo budget release later downthe line



MasonADC on 23 October 2020
tbone51 said:
Slownenberg said:

Smash easily. Smash is a multiplayer game, it appeals to more people. Smash will end up being the third best selling Switch game. Mario Kart and AC are going over 40 million, and Smash might make it to 40mil but should at least make it to 35mil. BotW might top out right at 30mil.



BotW should do over 30mil easy. BotW shouldn’t be counted out because it’s single player. If that were the case it wouldn’t be selling 4mil+ yearly

MasonADC said:

If botw didnt have a sequel it would sell more. But it does and smash wont so smash will end up on top. 

Sequel won’t harm its legs. Multiplayer games do that, and if anything I can see BotW becoming Nintendo budget release later downthe line

If botw 2 tops the original in quality it will harm legs. Botw 2 will become the to go game for the Switch



tbone51 on 23 October 2020
MasonADC said:
tbone51 said:



BotW should do over 30mil easy. BotW shouldn’t be counted out because it’s single player. If that were the case it wouldn’t be selling 4mil+ yearly

Sequel won’t harm its legs. Multiplayer games do that, and if anything I can see BotW becoming Nintendo budget release later downthe line

If botw 2 tops the original in quality it will harm legs. Botw 2 will become the to go game for the Switch

Mario Galaxy says hello 👋 



MasonADC on 23 October 2020
tbone51 said:
MasonADC said:

If botw 2 tops the original in quality it will harm legs. Botw 2 will become the to go game for the Switch

Mario Galaxy says hello 👋 

that example doesnt work for me cause mario galaxy one is vastly superior to 2!