I’m going with 2025 spring, why would nintendo want to replace 1 of the most if not the most successful system in 2022/23 or hell 2024? Ps5/xsx are in direct competition with each other, Nintendo isn’t at this point.

Nintendo coexist perfectly fine with one of the power consoles. Nintendo not going to throw its user base of 100mil (when spring 2022 comes) away.... it’s a unified console there are a ton of missing games and sequels. There is so much potential, indies thriving with the system, AA and smaller games do well. Nintendo will never get the real AAA support. Look at Capcom on how it treats the NSW for example

NSW going to sale pass 130mil and we need our MK9 on it in 2021 or 2022

Bottom line in "power terms" what Nvidia would need to give Nintendo to run PS5 ports fairly well (better than the current Switch does for PS4 games) would be

- ARM A78 CPU ... this launches this fall, so by 2023, it will be old tech, but A78 cores will be comparable to Zen 2 on the PS5.

- Tegra 5-7nm processor that's Ampere based (Ampere > PS5's RDNA2). Ampere 7nm launches this fall, so again not really a big deal to have that transition to the Tegra side three years from now. DLSS 2.0 is the key.

- LPDDR5x RAM, this will also be available this fall. On 128-bit bus you're probably looking at 100+GB/sec bandwidth, which is plenty when you factor in DLSS requiring far less pixels for the Switch 2 to render compared to what the PS5 has to do.

- Teraflop performance in the 1.5 TF undocked/3 TF docked range. That is roughly about 1/3 the PS5, the same ratio the current Switch is to XB1/PS4. That should be achievable without much fuss.

- Probably you want some high speed flash storage since that seems to be all the rage, but even this is not exotic technology for mobiles. The iPhone has had NVMe drives (the same the new XBox SX has) since the now old ass iPhone 6S which is almost half a decade old. There's also super fast UFS 3.0 more commonly available on Android phones, by 2023, that shouldn't be a problem.

The XBox Lockheart kinda makes this a joke actually, the Switch 2 with DLSS 2.0 will probably easily outperform that model straight across. PS5 it will be more equivalent to than the PS4 when you factor in DLSS 2.0. To get the same image a PS5 does, the Switch 2 will only have to render 1/4-1/15th the pixels, meaning basically the PS5 has to work 4x-15x harder.

DLSS completely changes the equation, if the current Switch had DLSS 2.0 available to it it would basically be an XBox One docked, maybe even better honestly.

So to me, if they mention a life cycle not similar to other ones, it can mean that they will try pushing around 8 years.
I don't expect a price cut until maybe end of this year or next year. I think we might see Zelda Botw 2 in March (if covid didn't affect it too much). A Switch pro will definitely be coming but yea not before next year as well. So if they release a pro or new model in year 5 i can expect it to do atleast 2-3 more years.

We still have many huge titles coming and we're in year 4. With all that, Switch just can't do under 100 millions and will likely be around 120 millions now.
I think they will wait to launch the next console (likely a Switch 2 of sorts) to perfect the new innovations. They don't have to rush cause the Switch is extremely healthy and they have basically no competition in their market AND they need to make the new one special enough to be more convincing than the 3DS was to the DS.