RolStoppable said:
| Cerebralbore101 said:
The more powerful console almost always loses, and almost always isn't the console of choice for multiplats. You know this as well as I do.
So is that your official prediction, given what we know now? 125m PS4s vs 50m XB1s, and 115m PS5s vs 60m XB2s? If so that's a change of 5.78% in marketshare over current gen. That is things pretty much remaining the same in the overall console marketshare picture. I would consider such an outcome to be a massive vindication of this thread's OP.
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The reason why the most powerful console has only won twice (SNES and PS4) is because most of the time the most powerful console had to cede a headstart to the competition and because in many of the earlier generations multiplatform games weren't anywhere close to as important as they are today (see bestseller lists). You are simply looking at an outcome ("The most powerful console almost always loses.") and call it a day, but a proper analysis explores the reasons why things played out like they have. We know that both the PS5 and XSX will launch this holiday, so the drawback of granting the competition a headstart won't apply. We also know that the bestseller lists of both PS and Xbox consoles in recent times (PS3, PS4, 360, XB1) have been dominated by multiplatform games and we know that that won't change for the PS5 and XSX. When the majority of important games are available on both consoles, it matters which console plays them better, especially in a scenario with price parity which might just be what we'll get this time.
The numbers I have given were merely a maths example to demonstrate how even a small shift can already change the ratio in a significant way. It wasn't a prediction.
Farsala said:
I feel like that proves her point a bit more. For the past 18 years, MS showed that XB would never cater to Japan, while they show decent proficiency with American tastes. And when people talk about exclusives, they don't talk about just first party games, they talk about brilliant 2nd and 3rd party exclusives like Bloodborne, Nier Automata, DQXI (for a time), Persona 5, etc. as well.
In the US, XB1 does have decent first party to match their tastes like Gears of War and Halo 5
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Microsoft moneyhatted various Japanese publishers to get exclusive JRPGs on the Xbox 360. That wasn't embraced by the Japanese market, but met with contempt. The sales difference between PS and Xbox consoles in Japan is way too big to attribute it to exclusive games.
Same thing in the USA, just the other way around. The sales difference between the PS4 and XB1 is too small to conclude with a straight face that Microsoft has done close to as good of a job with exclusives as Sony has done. The occassional Halo and GeoW release doesn't compare to Sony's releases of Uncharted 4, Horizon: Zero Dawn, Spiderman, God of War and others. Plus the bestselling games in the USA are multiplats like Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto, all of which have superior versions on the PS4. Clearly, the USA must have an inherent bias in favor of Xbox, because otherwise you can't explain why so many people settled for inferior multiplats and a smaller number of exclusives that cater to American tastes.
If you take a look at Europe, the third major region, you'll find once again that regional bias must play a significant factor. Most interesting is the difference between the UK and mainland Europe which is right in line with the UK having a habit of aligning themselves more with the USA than continental Europe, be it politically, culturally or with entertainment.
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