Was this reported or is this your expectation?

Wait, unless you're expecting Konami to take a fiscal loss by selling the game for 3k yen off when bundling with a joycon set as Nintendo did with Super Mario Party then I have to think you meant ceiling and not floor there, right?

Momotaro games actually have legs similar to many Nintendo titles. FW sales have always just been a fraction of total sales for this series.

Super Mario Party would have achieved 1.5M without bundles, just would have taken longer.

Momotaro will end up being the biggest holiday release this year, only New Horizon and Ring Fit Adventure are going to outsell it during the holidays. Based on how games like Taiko & Fishing Spirits have performed and it's reception, I think 1.5M lifetime is definitely the lower limit. With a first shipment of 500K that's is going to starting to sell-out at most retailers by week 50, there is no doubt that during the height of the holidays Momotaro will be doing substantial numbers(>100K Weeks for example). Shipped numbers for the year will approach 1 million, high sell-through and being a family friendly game I can see it being in the Top 30 for a while. Taiko and Fishing Spirits only recently stopped being part of the Top 30 and one of the those games launched in 2018. 

You misread, Momotaro will sell far more than 500K by the end of the year. Like I said it will be close to 1 million shipped for the year. 

The best comparison for Momotaro is Super Mario Party, so don't be surprised when Momotaro sells an additional 500K in 2021.  

• Launch: Super Mario Party - 126.275
• 2018: Super Mario Party - 764.853
• 2019: Super Mario Party - 497.862
• 2020: Super Mario Party - 332.310

Not sure why you are bringing up Fishing Spirits and Taiko. I just used them as an example of games that started low and have remained in the Top 30 for a long time due to their family friendly nature. Momotaro is very likely to have a bigger launch than either game sold during it's first year on the market, and both these games launched during Obon, not late in the year like Momotaro. 

Taiko:

• 2018: Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! - 270.415
• 2019: Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! - 150.167
• 2020: Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! - 101.707*

Fishing Spirits:

• 2019: Fishing Spirits - 336.995
• 2020: Fishing Spirits - 167.246*

Being part of the top 30 just means that they're selling 2-3k a week. How many weeks of selling 2-3k a week will Momotaro need to have to hit 1.5 million after it sells 500k for the holidays?

It should already be close or beat 1M sales this year.

Also, 2-3k a week is when you are at the bottom. If you're more in the middle, you're actually closer to 8k a week. One year at that speed is worth over 400k sales.

Hahaha, wow. 1 million for Momotaro in just this year? At the end of 2020?

So uh, with it debuting around 300-350k this week you're expecting 650-700k in the remaining 5 or 6 weeks?

Don't forget this is the holiday season, sales will drop rather slowly week over week.

What 3rd party title has had any kind of remote holiday success like that on Switch? Even Dragon Quest couldn't manage to do that in the holidays. And Momotaro is nowhere near the IP that Dragon Quest is.

If it were a Nintendo published game, I'd totally agree with you because the data backs up that reasoning. However there is no data that backs up anything of what you're saying when it comes to 3rd party software performance on Switch during the holidays. The big software holiday sellers will be Ring Fit Adventure and Animal Crossing.

Of course Dragon Quest didn't manage that. DQ games are, just like most RPG in Japan to be honest, pretty frontloaded. It was never to be in the first place with that game.