In phase I and II clinical trials, the monovalent Omicron vaccines performed better than the bivalent ones. I feel there's no point in keeping the original formulation when people have had multiple doses of the stuff and Omicron elicits a robust recall response of the wild-type antibodies. That'd be a disappointing shot.

Unless it'd be a BA.1/BA.2 bivalent shot. Then we'd be talking.

I guess BA.2.75 would be a good bet to focus on for fall. We're dealing with BA.4 and BA.5 currently, too late to adjust vaccines for that now, 2.75 will probably take over after the summer wave is done.


https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/new-coronavirus-mutant-raises-concerns-in-india-and-beyond-1.5982256

Scientists say the variant -- called BA.2.75 -- may be able to spread rapidly and get around immunity from vaccines and previous infection. It's unclear whether it could cause more serious disease than other Omicron variants, including the globally prominent BA.5.

"It's still really early on for us to draw too many conclusions," said Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn. "But it does look like, especially in India, the rates of transmission are showing kind of that exponential increase." Whether it will outcompete BA.5, he said, is yet to be determined.

Still, the fact that it has already been detected in many parts of the world even with lower levels of viral surveillance "is an early indication it is spreading," said Shishi Luo, head of infectious diseases for Helix, a company that supplies viral sequencing information to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The latest mutant has been spotted in several distant states in India, and appears to be spreading faster than other variants there, said Lipi Thukral, a scientist at the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research-Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology in New Delhi. It's also been detected in about 10 other countries, including Australia, Germany, the United Kingdom and Canada. Two cases were recently identified on the West Coast of the U.S., and Helix identified a third U.S. case last week.

Already here then, but will take a while before it becomes the next dominant strain


Fuelling experts' concerns are a large number of mutations separating this new variant from Omicron predecessors. Some of those mutations are in areas that relate to the spike protein and could allow the virus to bind onto cells more efficiently, Binnicker said.

Another concern is that the genetic tweaks may make it easier for the virus to skirt past antibodies -- protective proteins made by the body in response to a vaccine or infection from an earlier variant.

Shouldn't people be better protected against BA.2.75 than BA.5? Or better protected against serious disease outcomes? Unclear for now.


It may take several weeks to get a sense of whether the latest Omicron mutant may affect the trajectory of the pandemic. Meanwhile Dr. Gagandeep Kang, who studies viruses at India's Christian Medical College in Vellore, said the growing concern over the variant underlines the need for more sustained efforts to track and trace viruses that combine genetic efforts with real world information about who is getting sick and how badly. "It is important that surveillance isn't a start-stop strategy," she said.

Luo said BA.2.75 is another reminder that the coronavirus is continually evolving -- and spreading.

"We would like to return to pre-pandemic life, but we still need to be careful," she said. " We need to accept that we're now living with a higher level of risk than we used to."

BA.2.75 is not distinct enough from either BA.1 or BA.2 to warrant a vaccine of its own.

As for the second point, that might not be true for India - it had a massive BA.2-exclusive wave (which is close to BA.4/5) and a massive Delta wave last year. The L452R mutation in BA.4/5 was not only present, but antigenically dominant in Delta.

Just as predicted, according to preliminary neutralization essays: BA.2.75 is closer to BA.1 and even BA.2 than BA.4/5. But it's better at escaping Delta immunity, so maybe it's just thriving in places BA.4/5 can't do much.

Weekly update. Japan is getting hit the hardest atm, BA.5 is the suspect driving the sharp increase in cases.

In total 6.67 million new cases were reported last week (up from 6.07 million) to a total of 566,348,681
Also another 14,382 more deaths were reported (up from 11,458) to a total of 6,385,837

Europe might be peaking in its current wave, but its hard to tell with reporting changing all the time.
Europe reported 2.91 million new cases (down from 3.04 million) and 4,711 more deaths (up from 3,839)
USA reported 897K new cases (up from 766K) and 2,953 more deaths (up from 2,459)

The continents

Asia and South America are picking up speed.

Corners of the world

Japan, South Korea and Iran are shooting up, Brazil starting to go up faster as well.

https://jen.jiji.com/jc/eng?g=eco&k=2022070801227

Tokyo, July 8 (Jiji Press)--The BA.5 omicron coronavirus variant, which is behind a recent surge in COVID-19 cases in Japan, is expected to replace the Ba.2 variant as the dominant strain in the country by the end of July. Health ministry and other officials are on high guard because BA.5 is believed to be more infectious than BA.2 and to more easily evade immunity acquired by vaccination.

The BA.5 variant, detected in South Africa in February, was confirmed in Japan for the first time in May, at airport quarantine. One of BA.5's characteristics is high infectiousness. British health authorities said that BA.5 is likely to be spreading 35 pct faster than BA.2. With BA.5 replacing BA.2 globally, the World Health Organization said Wednesday that the number of new COVID-19 cases worldwide rose nearly 30 pct in the past two weeks.

While parts of the world are still dealing with BA.2, other parts getting into a BA.5 surge, BA.2.75 is coming next and seems to be out competing BA.5 in India
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/ba-2-75-boston-doctors-on-whether-we-should-worry-about-the-competing-omicron-subvariant/2772044/

As the U.S. battles the rapidly spreading BA.5 omicron subvariant, a new mutant that could compete with the highly contagious strain is on the horizon.

Scientists say the variant – called BA.2.75 – may be able to evade immunity from vaccines and prior infection. The latest mutant has been spotted in several distant states in India and appears to be spreading faster than other variants there. It’s unclear whether it could cause more serious disease than other omicron variants, including the prominent BA.5.

Experts say the transmission rates of the BA.2.75 variant are showing an exponential increase, particularly in India. It makes up about a quarter of the cases there and seems to be competing with BA.5 as the dominant strain. Some health officials expect cases will continue to grow, but how the subvariant might impact the U.S. remains to be seen.

The population in India has a different immunity than those in the U.S., Boston doctors said, because different vaccines were given at various times and different variants circulated at various times. Those variables result in fluctuating levels of infection-induced immunity.


At home: Canada reported 36.9K new cases (up from 24.5K) and 355 deaths (190 last week)
Random Covid screening will be back at the airports next Tuesday and talk about bringing mask backs is back as well
(the last mask mandates were just absolved a week ago)


As always politics can't agree on what's more important, keeping people safe or to keep the money safe

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-resuming-mandatory-random-covid-19-testing-for-air-travellers-1.5987380

“There was no science shared to test fully vaccinated travellers, no science shared to pause the testing, and no science shared about re-establishing the random testing,” wrote transport critic Melissa Lantsman in an email on Thursday to CTVNews.ca. “Once again, the Liberal government is playing political games that will make our already congested and delayed airports and travel even more inconvenient for travellers without actually keeping Canadians any safer.”

“Unnecessary policies like random testing and the ArriveCAN app are hurting Canada’s recovery,” she also wrote.
NDP health critic Don Davies said he supports re-introducing measures to detect certain variants of COVID-19 and to trace how they’re getting into Canada.

“As the Liberals have not always applied these measures in an effective or efficient manner, it is important to ensure that any random testing program for international travellers is situated offsite as many transportation stakeholders have called for,” he wrote in an email to CTVNews.ca on Thursday.

Approximately four or five per cent of travellers entering Canada will be selected for random testing, providing a sample of the overall population, the minister’s office told CTV News. There is no change at land borders, where mandatory random testing was never put on pause.

Europe in detail

BA.4 and BA.5 are fueling the current wave in Europe
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-62175000
Data is a week behind now though in the UK.

Great summer so far, not. Next to Covid, we're also dealing with a drought and heat wave. Can't even go outside during the middle of the day with UV 8+. We have a 3 month deficit for rainfall now, no moisture left in the ground to put any moisture in the air. Clear blue skies are pretty, but the sun hurts :/

Weekly update. The trend continues, cases keep rising, reporting keeps slowing

In total 7.37 million new cases were reported last week (up from 6.67 million) to a total of 573,715,172 cases (23.8 million active)
Also another 15,305 more deaths were reported (up from 14,382) to a total of 6,401,142


The USA slowly keeps on climbing with 975K new cases (897K last week) and 3,219 more deaths (2,953 last week)
Europe is reporting fewer new cases yet UK data is missing as well as other countries.
Still 2.89 million new cases reported in Europe (down from 2.91 million) and 5,769 more deaths (up from 4,711)

The continents

Asia is about to overtake Europe, only Africa is heading down.

Corners of the world

Japan passed the USA in reported cases, however deaths are far fewer. Much better reporting in Japan.
Cases in Iran are also growing quite fast, China creeping up despite only reporting symptomatic cases.
Most provinces in Canada moved to reporting once a week. Ontario, the biggest province, didn't report at all last week.
Canada only reported 4.9K cases (down from 36.9K) and 28 deaths (355 last week). Lot of missing data.

Europe in detail or what's left of the details

This graph has probably ran its course, measuring has been put on the low priority list.

While Ontario stopped reporting cases for the time being:
https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ottawa-s-top-doctor-concerned-about-current-wave-of-covid-19-in-the-capital-1.5996916

Ottawa's top doctor is expressing concern about the levels of COVID-19 in the community, and is urging residents to "reassess and adapt" their behaviours by limiting in-person contact and wear masks indoors and outdoors in crowded spaces during the seventh wave of the pandemic.

"I am concerned about the current wave," medical officer of health Dr. Vera Etches said in a statement, noting there are "very high levels" of COVID-19 in the wastewater and hospitalizations and outbreaks are increasing.

"This is indicative that the level of COVID-19 is very high in Ottawa right now, higher than the January Omicron wave."

"Individually and collectively, now is the time to reassess and adapt our behaviours to the levels of COVID-19 in the community," Etches said.

"This is an important skill we will all need as we head into the fall. Wearing masks indoors and outdoors in crowded spaces, staying home when sick, getting booster doses, and minimizing contacts during periods of high transmission in the community are all behaviours that will help us, our families, and our loved ones. Individual actions help influence community impact."

We remain stuck at home due to high risk and heat wave making outdoor activities very unpleasant.

Cases didn't seem to go up that much (yet) in Australia, but I guess that was just due to lower testing.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/record-number-of-covid-hit-australians-in-hospital-as-omicron-surges-1.6000832

The number of Australians admitted to hospitals with COVID-19 hit a record of about 5,450 on Monday, official data showed, as the spread of highly contagious new Omicron sub-variants strains the healthcare system nationwide.

The figure has grown since late June, as the BA.4 and BA.5 strains became dominant since they can evade immune protection, whether from vaccination or prior infection, while some experts say the latter can be as infectious as measles.

The number of those in hospitals is the highest since the emergence of the coronavirus, exceeding January's high of 5,390 during the first wave of Omicron infections. Daily death tolls have also risen, topping 100 on Saturday for the first time.

January's reported cases hit a 3 day average high of over 130K daily cases, currently high in Australia is sitting at 51K daily cases. The lower numbers do not mean things are getting better :/

Austral winter, yes, but also no pre-Omicron exposure:

While we know that previous infection protects better against infection and especially hospitalization, there's a more sinister possibility: that genetically vulnerable individuals were effectively culled from the population in most of the world except some highly vaccinated ones.

Case in point, Peru is more or less at the peak of their BA.4/5 wave and yet...

True, not much delta exposure at all, but Australia and New Zealand did go through the first Omicron wave. Japan was also more careful pre-Omicron and is exploding now. Interesting that Delta exposure helps against Omicron, yet prior Omicron exposure doesn't seem to do much for the new Omicron variants.

There is still the age factor. The average age in Peru is 31, Australia 37, Japan 49.
Japan also has very high population density, ideal for spreading the virus.

And yeah at some point the vulnerable are either dead or like my wife, more and more careful not to catch it a 3rd time ugh. (No idea how though, kids got to go to school again after summer :/)

I guess that's one way pandemics come to an end...