Still a long way to go in Ontario according to the IHME's projections:

OT - It seems Omicron is also milder than Delta and even the original strain in the hamster model according to a study from Japan. So increasingly likely it's also intrinsic mildness and not only immunity-induced:

Yes the projections aren't looking good. If Omicron made people as sick as Delta we would be seriously screwed.

However Christmas miracle, only 10 cases reported in Canada today... (Only Nunavut reported) It will probably be a week into Januari before any reported numbers start to become reliable again. (Not only are people waiting for days to get tested, there are also again close to 70K tests pending to be analyzed)

Meanwhile the UK is trying to out vaccinate the new wave again with booster shots. You couldn't out vaccinate Delta, this spreads much much faster... I guess with Omicron anti-bodies plus a booster shot, you should be good for a while!

I'm just hoping Omicron is indeed mild and far less dangerous. Reported deaths did eventually go up in South Africa, yet comparing 3 weeks, 21 days between reported cases and deaths: deaths / cases it would be a fatality rate of 0.9% for Omicron vs 5.7% for Delta. (Comparing with April 16 where the Delta wave reached over 400 deaths in a week) That's not the actual fatality rate (cases are under reported), but what you can say is that Omicron is so far proving to be far less lethal.

We'll see how IHME's model fares but in Ontario deaths are estimated to peak late February at around 30 a day in the mid projection and 60 in the high severity scenario. But depending on the country and immunity levels, it will look like a significant peak compared to previous ones due to the sheer number of people infected. Germany for instance is estimated to have a peak of around 1,000 deaths.

The model might be conservative: so far South Africa and Zimbabwe are tracking below estimated deaths, significantly so in the case of the latter, but there could be larger delays in reporting than expected.

Also relevant is that if this was a flu pandemic, this is what we'd have seen from the start. With a variant that has much a shorter incubation time like influenza and even more generic symptoms, the illusion of control is all but gone. I also think kicking the can down the road with lockdowns etc. is a bad idea because the efficacy of boosters wane quickly vs. Omicron (a mere 45% at 10 weeks) and you'd want the elderly to be optimally protected at the peak of the wave.

Came across a really well made animated short about the pandemic today. Enjoy.

I'm sick now, after my wife, who got if from my oldest. I've been dizzy the last couple days, very soar throat, soar all over, headache, very tired. I slept yesterday afternoon, through the night, went back to bed after putting the garbage out this morning and just got up again a bit before 1 PM. I usually only sleep 5 to 6 hours a night. The rapid anti-gen tests is negative for me too, just a very nasty cold I guess.

Cases are apparently insane numbers. In Japan, pretty much still very low here. Only 1 person in serious condition in Tokyo.

I got a cold since Christmas day and have to suspect I may have gotten it, but who knows. Almost fully recovered now. I have to imagine a lot of people don't get tested if the symptoms were to be this weak. With cases so high, the real rate would have to be even higher...

I'd assume with a very high positivity rate + harder access to testing + inherent mildness = much more cases being missed in developed countries compared to previous waves. It was 1 in 3, but it's possible that now we're picking up 1 in 6 or less.

Of course, that varies from country to country. Somewhere like Denmark or Iceland where maybe two-thirds of cases were being detected might be now at one-third instead, still a respectable number.

Also we're flying on the blind around here because some states haven't reported cases in nearly two weeks because of hacking or some other excuse and we can't really base it off hospitalizations since there's a huge flu outbreak about too. Recent random sampling found out a third of December cases were Omicron around the country, two thirds in Sao Paulo, but who knows for sure. Argentina and now Uruguay are certainly in the thick of it.

Even though many places are backlogged, test sites overwhelmed, reported cases are hitting insane numbers already. 1.6 million new cases reported worldwide yesterday, last year's delta peak was at 835K cases in a single day. Already doubled while Omicron is still mostly in NA, Western Europe and Australia. South America is starting to come up fast as well now.

Here we're waiting for Ford to make up his mind as usual. "Doug Ford to meet with cabinet to discuss Ontario's plan for schools in January, sources say" He does realize Jnuari is only 1 day away right.... Schools are supposed to open on Tuesday, I doubt it.

LOL, we're postponing schools until Januari 5th, Wednesday. That will solve the Omicron wave!

Oh and we're restricting testing, running out of tests. Shortening isolation periods as well cause why bother... Contact tracing is done, can't keep up. 30% of tests are positive now and we have another 96K tests pending. (Thus another 30K on top of the 14K reported today plus all the people that can't get tested) They say it will spread rampant for the next 6 to 8 weeks, but the schools will be perfectly safe.

4th doses now for long term care homes, which are facing out breaks as well.

The province is shortening the required isolation period from ten days to five for vaccinated individuals

Beginning Dec. 31, PCR tests will be available only for symptomatic high-risk individuals and those who work in highest risk settings, as well as vulnerable populations. Members of the general public with mild symptoms are now being asked not to seek testing.


Oh well, when the dust settles mid Februari, we should all have fresh anti bodies, one way or another.

Weekly update and Year over Year comparison.

Happy new year, it's going to be rough for the first couple months. Omicron has taken hold all over the world now. It might be 10x less deadly, but it also has the potential to drive up cases 10x higher than they ever were before.

In total 9.13 million new cases were reported last week (up from 5.37 million) to a total of 288,462,248
Also another 43,559 more deaths were reported (down from 48,291) to a total of 5,452,672

Reported deaths are still on decline from the past delta wave, cases are rapidly climbing from Omicron

The continents

Europe reported 4.67 million new cases (up from 2.89 million) and 22,255 more deaths (down from 23,704)
North America reported 3.00 million new cases (up from 1.50 million) and 10,467 more deaths (down from 12,543)
Asia reported 656K new cases (up from 503K) and 7,549 more deaths (down from 8,515)
South America reported 383K new cases (up from 144K) and 1,703 more deaths (down from 2,105)
Africa reported 307K new cases (up from 286K) and 1,523 more deaths (up from 1,376)
Oceania reported 114K new cases (up from 40.7K) and 62 deaths (48 last week)

Corners of the world

USA reported 2.71 million new cases (up from 1.38 million) and 9,234 more deaths (down from 10,952)
Canada reported 226K new cases (up from 90.2K) and 180 deaths (107 last week)
Australia reported 113K new cases (up from 39.8K) and 57 deaths (48 last week)
India reported 84.4K new cases (up from 43.8K) and 2,017 more deaths (down from 2,321)
South Africa reported 65.2K new cases (down from 117K) and 402 deaths (446 last week)
Brazil reported 56.8K new cases (up from 21.7K) and 680 deaths (782 last week)
South Korea reported 34.6K new cases (down from 44.7K) and 492 deaths (480 last week)
Iran reported 12.6K new cases (down from 14.1K) and 300 deaths (314 last week)
Japan reported 2,420 new cases (up from 1,504) and 7 deaths (8 last week)

Europe in detail

France passed the 200K new cases per day with the UK not far behind. Omicron is starting to become big in more and more countries.


Comparing with last year

2020 had a total of 84,355,259 reported cases and 1,834,484 reported deaths, a reported fatality rate of 2.17%
2021 saw a total of 204,106,989 reported cases and 3,618,188 reported deaths, a reported fatality rate of 1.77%
Despite the deadlier Delta variant, the vaccines did their job to reduce the fatality rate. Still nearly double the deaths of 2020 as panemic fatigue won out over social distancing measures.

In 2020 Europe had a total of 23,870,517 reported cases and 547,499 reported deaths, fatality rate 2.29%
In 2021 Europe had a total of 63,767,104 reported cases and 979,894 reported deaths, fatality rate 1.54%
Europe's share of cases this year was slightly higher 31.2% vs 28.3%, yet its share of deaths was slightly lower 27.1% vs 29.8%

In 2020 North America had a total of 23,621,874 reported cases and 517,565 reported deaths, fatality rate 2.19%
In 2021 North America had a total of 42,351,299 reported cases and 727,582 reported deaths, fatality rate 1.72%
North America's share of cases this year was a lot lower 20.7% vs 28.0%, same for deaths 20.1% vs 28.2%

In 2020 Asia had a total of 20,757,124 reported cases and 338,426 reported deaths, fatality rate 1.63%
In 2021 Asia had a total of 63,910,105 reported cases and 916,107 reported deaths, fatality rate 1.43%
Asia's share of cases went up to 31.3% vs 24.6% last year and 25.3% of deaths vs 18.4% last year.
The huge Delta wave in India is mostly to blame for that, as well as for the pretty small improvement of the fatality rate

In 2020 South America had a total of 13,255,904 reported cases and 363,696 reported deaths, fatality rate 2.74%
In 2021 South America had a total of 26,558,289 reported cases and 828,362 reported deaths, fatality rate 3.12%
South America's share of cases went down 13.0% vs 15.7%, yet its share of deaths went up 22.9% vs 19.8%
The higher fatality rate can be from a more devastating delta wave, less effective vaccines, but also from better reporting on deaths (South America had a lot of excess deaths in 2020) and maybe not as good reporting of cases.

In 2020 Africa had a total of 2,800,709 reported cases and 66,224 reported deaths, fatality rate 2.36%
In 2021 Africa had a total of 7,009,812 reported cases and 162,799 reported deaths, fatality rate 2.32%
Africa's share of cases was pretty much the same (3.3% vs 3.4%), slightly more deaths 4.5% vs 3.6% of the total last year.
Africa is still only at 9% vaccination rate, not much improvement in the fatality rate is as expected.

In 2020 Oceania had a total of 48,410 reported cases and 1,059 reported deaths, fatality rate 2.19%
In 2021 Oceania had a total of 510,380 reported cases and 3,444 reported deaths, fatality rate 0.67%
Oceania had the biggest improvement of fatality rate, but their numbers are also the most affected (percentage wise) by Omicron.

Omicron should bring the fatality rate way down and after Februari Covid-19 will likely become endemic. Regular booster shots for 60+ are likely to stay along the yearly flu shot. A booster shot for all might be needed to get through the current Omicron wave.


Vaccinations went on vacation this week, very small increase, but are also replaced by booster shots

Global vaccination rate is now 48.97% (+0.88%)

South America 63.58% (+0.58%)
Europe 61.10% (+0.53%)
Oceania 57.97% (+0.11%)
North America 57.98% (+0.31%)
Asia 56.16% (+1.23%)
Africa 9.05% (+0.24%)

Stay safe. The next couple months are going to be rough but this summer should be relatively normal again.

Stopped procrastinating and got the Moderna booster last night. The first shot barely affected me, the second gave me mild flu-like symptoms and a really sore arm, this time my arm is less sore but it's kinda kicking my ass. Maybe that means my immune system is fighting it harder each time but I may have to look into a Pfizer shot next time if I don't want to be bed ridden.