We'll see how IHME's model fares but in Ontario deaths are estimated to peak late February at around 30 a day in the mid projection and 60 in the high severity scenario. But depending on the country and immunity levels, it will look like a significant peak compared to previous ones due to the sheer number of people infected. Germany for instance is estimated to have a peak of around 1,000 deaths.
The model might be conservative: so far South Africa and Zimbabwe are tracking below estimated deaths, significantly so in the case of the latter, but there could be larger delays in reporting than expected.
Also relevant is that if this was a flu pandemic, this is what we'd have seen from the start. With a variant that has much a shorter incubation time like influenza and even more generic symptoms, the illusion of control is all but gone. I also think kicking the can down the road with lockdowns etc. is a bad idea because the efficacy of boosters wane quickly vs. Omicron (a mere 45% at 10 weeks) and you'd want the elderly to be optimally protected at the peak of the wave.
